Trends in economic research: an international perspective

Given the recent efforts in several countries to reorganize the research institutional setting to improve research productivity, our analysis addresses the following questions: To which extent has the recent awareness over international quality standards in economics around the world been reflected in research performance? How have individual countries fared? Do research quantity and quality indicators tell us the same story? We concentrate on trends taking place since the beginning of the 1990s and rely on a very comprehensive database of scientific journals, to provide a cross-country comparison of the evolution of research in economics. Our findings indicate that Europe is catching-up with the US but, in terms of influential research, the US maintains a dominant position. The main continental European countries, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, experienced some of the largest growth rates in economic scientific output. Other European countries, namely the UK, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden, have shown remarkable progress in per capita output. Collaborative research seems to be a key factor explaining the relative success of some European countries, in particular when it comes to publishing in top journals, attained predominantly through international collaborations.

Estudi energètic de les llars del barri de Haër (Senegal)

En el present estudi s’han analitzat quines són les fonts energètiques utilitzades a les llars de Haër, així com les repercussions que aquestes tenen sobre el medi natural i socioeconòmic de les famílies. Per tal de poder identificar quines són aquestes fonts i els seus efectes, s’ha realitzat un inventari i una diagnosi energètica. S’ha estudiat l’ús de l’energia en dos àmbits domèstics principals: la il·luminació i el cuinat, analitzant la freqüència d’ús i quantificant el consum energètic familiar. Les fonts energètiques detectades són: llenya, carbó, gas, querosè, piles i espelmes, de les quals, la llenya, el querosè i el carbó són les majoritàriament utilitzades. El consum energètic per càpita és de 2.100 kWh/any. Per altra banda, l’obtenció d’algunes d’aquestes fonts energètiques, suposen un cost econòmic molt elevat per les economies familiars, arribant a suposar un 60% dels ingressos. A partir de les dades obtingudes a la diagnosi, s’ha aplicat un indicador per tal de quantificar la magnitud de l’impacte sobre el medi produït pel model energètic seguit dins de les llars. L’indicador estudiat ha estat la petjada energètica, amb la qual s’ha traduït aquest consum en unitats de superfície biològicament productiva, requerida per absorbir el CO2 emès. El resultat ha estat que una persona produeix anualment 2,09·10-2 tCO2, que requereix de 7,53·10-3 gha/persona de superfície forestal per ser absorbides. S’ha comparat aquest resultat amb la petjada energètica domèstica calculada pel poble d’Araós, el qual, amb un model energètic totalment diferent, té una petjada energètica de 1,53 gha/persona. Un cop detectats els problemes o impactes causats pel model energètic actual, es proposa una alternativa energètica per tal de reemplaçar algunes fonts convencionals, principalment el querosè dels quinqués. Així doncs, mitjançant l’aprofitament de l’energia solar, es plantegen dos models fotovoltaics adaptats a dues tipologies de llars diferents, amb l’objectiu de minimitzar el cost i optimitzar els recursos energètics. Finalment es planteja una solució financera per abordar el cost inicial de la instal·lació solar.

Testing for sufficient information in structural VARs

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which a set of variables is informationally sufficient, i.e. it contains enough information to estimate the structural shocks with a VAR model. Based on such conditions, we suggest a procedure to test for informational sufficiency. Moreover, we show how to amend the VAR if informational sufficiency is rejected. We apply our procedure to a VAR including TFP, unemployment and per-capita hours worked. We find that the three variables are not informationally sufficient. When adding missing information, the effects of technology shocks change dramatically.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

Ecological Footprint Inequality: A methodological review and some results

Scarcities of environmental services are no longer merely a remote hypothesis. Consequently, analysis of their inequalities between nations becomes of paramount importance for the achievement of sustainability in terms either of international policy, or of Universalist ethical principles of equity. This paper aims, on the one hand, at revising methodological aspects of the inequality measurement of certain environmental data and, on the other, at extending the scarce empirical evidence relating to the international distribution of Ecological Footprint (EF), by using a longer EF time series. Most of the techniques currently important in the literature are revised and then tested on EF data with interesting results. We look in depth at Lorenz dominance analyses and consider the underlying properties of different inequality indices. Those indices which fit best with environmental inequality measurements are CV2 and GE(2) because of their neutrality property, however a trade-off may occur when subgroup decompositions are performed. A weighting factor decomposition method is proposed in order to isolate weighting factor changes in inequality growth rates. Finally, the only non-ambiguous way of decomposing inequality by source is the natural decomposition of CV2, which additionally allows the interpretation of marginal term contributions. Empirically, this paper contributes to the environmental inequality measurement of EF: this inequality has been quite stable and its change over time is due to per capita vector changes rather than population changes. Almost the entirety of the EF inequality is explainable by differences in the means between the countries of the World Bank group. This finding suggests that international environmental agreements should be attempted on a regional basis in an attempt to achieve greater consensus between the parties involved. Additionally, source decomposition warns of the dangers of confining CO2 emissions reduction to crop-based energies because of the implications for basic needs satisfaction.

Ecological Footprint Inequality across countries: the role of environment intensity, income and interaction effects

Recently, White (2007) analysed the international inequalities in Ecological Footprints per capita (EF hereafter) based on a two-factor decomposition of an index from the Atkinson family (Atkinson (1970)). Specifically, this paper evaluated the separate role of environment intensity (EF/GDP) and average income as explanatory factors for these global inequalities. However, in addition to other comments on their appeal, this decomposition suffers from the serious limitation of the omission of the role exerted by probable factorial correlation (York et al. (2005)). This paper proposes, by way of an alternative, a decomposition of a conceptually similar index like Theil’s (Theil, 1967) which, in effect, permits clear decomposition in terms of the role of both factors plus an inter-factor correlation, in line with Duro and Padilla (2006). This decomposition might, in turn, be extended to group inequality components (Shorrocks, 1980), an analysis that cannot be conducted in the case of the Atkinson indices. The proposed methodology is implemented empirically with the aim of analysing the international inequalities in EF per capita for the 1980-2007 period and, amongst other results, we find that, indeed, the interactive component explains, to a significant extent, the apparent pattern of stability observed in overall international inequalities.

Ecological Footprint Inequality: A methodological review and some results

Scarcities of environmental services are no longer merely a remote hypothesis. Consequently, analysis of their inequalities between nations becomes of paramount importance for the achievement of sustainability in terms either of international policy, or of Universalist ethical principles of equity. This paper aims, on the one hand, at revising methodological aspects of the inequality measurement of certain environmental data and, on the other, at extending the scarce empirical evidence relating to the international distribution of Ecological Footprint (EF), by using a longer EF time series. Most of the techniques currently important in the literature are revised and then tested on EF data with interesting results. We look in depth at Lorenz dominance analyses and consider the underlying properties of different inequality indices. Those indices which fit best with environmental inequality measurements are CV2 and GE(2) because of their neutrality property, however a trade-off may occur when subgroup decompositions are performed. A weighting factor decomposition method is proposed in order to isolate weighting factor changes in inequality growth rates. Finally, the only non-ambiguous way of decomposing inequality by source is the natural decomposition of CV2, which additionally allows the interpretation of marginal term contributions. Empirically, this paper contributes to the environmental inequality measurement of EF: this inequality has been quite stable and its change over time is due to per capita vector changes rather than population changes. Almost the entirety of the EF inequality is explainable by differences in the means between the countries of the World Bank group. This finding suggests that international environmental agreements should be attempted on a regional basis in an attempt to achieve greater consensus between the parties involved. Additionally, source decomposition warns of the dangers of confining CO2 emissions reduction to crop-based energies because of the implications for basic needs satisfaction. Keywords: ecological footprint; ecological inequality measurement, inequality decomposition.

Ecological Footprint Inequality across countries: the role of environment intensity, income and interaction effects

Recently, White (2007) analysed the international inequalities in Ecological Footprints per capita (EF hereafter) based on a two-factor decomposition of an index from the Atkinson family (Atkinson (1970)). Specifically, this paper evaluated the separate role of environment intensity (EF/GDP) and average income as explanatory factors for these global inequalities. However, in addition to other comments on their appeal, this decomposition suffers from the serious limitation of the omission of the role exerted by probable factorial correlation (York et al. (2005)). This paper proposes, by way of an alternative, a decomposition of a conceptually similar index like Theil’s (Theil, 1967) which, in effect, permits clear decomposition in terms of the role of both factors plus an inter-factor correlation, in line with Duro and Padilla (2006). This decomposition might, in turn, be extended to group inequality components (Shorrocks, 1980), an analysis that cannot be conducted in the case of the Atkinson indices. The proposed methodology is implemented empirically with the aim of analysing the international inequalities in EF per capita for the 1980-2007 period and, amongst other results, we find that, indeed, the interactive component explains, to a significant extent, the apparent pattern of stability observed in overall international inequalities. Key words: ecological footprint; international environmental distribution; inequality decomposition

Measuring the child mortality impact of official aid for fighting infectious diseases, 2000-2010

Aid for fighting infectious and parasitic diseases has had a statistically significant role in the under-five mortality reduction in the last decade. Point estimates indicate a country average reduction of 1.4 deaths per thousand under fives live-born attributable to aid at its average level in 2000-2010. The effect would be an average drop of 3.3 in the under-five mortality rate at the aid levels of 2010. By components, a dollar per capita spent in fighting malaria has caused the largest average impact, statistically higher than a dollar per capita spent in STD/HIV control. We do not find statistically significant effects of other infectious disease aid, including aid for the control of tuberculosis.

Autosuficiència energètica. Estudi pilot a Alinyà (Alt Urgell)

A aquest estudi s'ha analitzat si és viable l'autosuficiència energètica en base a un estudi pilot al nucli rural d'Alinyà aprofitant els recursos naturals de la zona. S'ha realitzat un estudi del consum energètic de la població i s'ha comparat amb el potencial de producció energètica dels recursos renovables locals incloent energia provinent de la biomassa i aprofitada en calderes individuals per a cada habitatge, energia solar en teulades i energia hidroelèctrica a partir de centrals minihidràuliques restaurades ja existents. També s’ha realitzat un anàlisi per detectar possibles factors d’ineficiència energètica i a partir d’aquí, proposar una sèrie de mesures per corregir aquesta. S'han comptabilitzat les emissions de CO2 derivades del consum energètic i les proporcions que representa cada tipus de font energètica sobre el total del nucli. També s'ha establert una comparativa del consum mitjà per habitant i any entre la població i Catalunya; el consum a Alinyà és d'1,46 Tep's, mentre que el de Catalunya és d'1,7 Tep's, el nostre estudi no contempla la mobilitat, si se li resta aquest vector a la mitjana de Catalunya veiem que és de 0,9 Tep's, per tant, hi observem un major consum energètic. El 76% del consum d'Alinyà prové dels combustibles fòssils, concretament del gasoil, el nucli té una forta dependència respecte a aquesta energia, que a més a més representa el 86% (56T CO2 eq.) de les emissions totals de CO2. Per finalitzar, s'ha demostrat que és possible assolir l'autosuficiència energètica mitjançant l'implantació d'una combinació d'estratègies, viables en tots els aspectes; tant tècnics com socioeconòmics. Abastint el poble d'energia a un menor cost econòmic i amb un estil de vida més respectuós amb el medi ambient.

Passive modernization? the new human development index and its components in Italy’s regions (1871-2007)

The article presents and discusses estimates of social and economic indicators for Italy’s regions in benchmark years roughly from Unification to the present day: life expectancy, education, GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, and the new Human Development Index (HDI). A broad interpretative hypothesis, based on the distinction between passive and active modernization, is proposed to account for the evolution of regional imbalances over the long-run. In the lack of active modernization, Southern Italy converged thanks to passive modernization, i.e., State intervention: however, this was more effective in life expectancy, less successful in education, expensive and as a whole ineffective in GDP. As a consequence, convergence in the HDI occurred from the late XIX century to the 1970s, but came to a sudden halt in the last decades of the XX century.

Canvis al consum envers la crisi : creació d'una botiga de roba de segona mà

El nostre treball consta principalment de dues parts: En la primera ens hem apropat al tema presentant el context econòmic actual i el món de la roba de segona mà. A continuació ens hem centrat en la relació que existeix entre les dues parts. I per últim hem realitzat un estudi de mercat a partir d’enquestes. Amb aquestes, hem conegut tant la relació com la visió que té la gent sobre el tema, i a més hem establert el consumidor tipus que ens servirà pel futur muntatge del nostre negoci. Les enquestes les hem distribuït en tres districtes de diferent renda per veure si aquesta pot influir en les respostes. Amb la primera part ens hem adonat que la crisi ha fet disminuir la despesa, i aquest fet ajuda a que nous consumidors entrin al nostre mercat. Amb la segona part, i un cop vist que ens trobem en un context favorable, hem buscat la viabilitat que tindria la creació de la nostra pròpia botiga de roba de segona mà. Per fer-ho hem seguit els següents passos: hem buscat la localització òptima per la seva ubicació, hem llogat i dissenyat el local; ens hem constituït com a societat, hem realitzat un estudi dels possibles costos i hem desenvolupat el pla de màrqueting. Finalment, ens adonem que els nostres beneficis serien positius i per tant, el nostre projecte és viable.Actualment, Espanya està immersa en un crisi econòmica, juntament amb molts dels països industrialitzats. Això ha provocat que les famílies disminueixin les seves despeses a l’hora de consumir la major part de béns i serveis que feien fins ara. El que ha succeït doncs, es que han canviat els hàbits de consum, béns que es consumien abans o bé directament han deixat de ser consumits o bé han estat substituïts per d’altres amb un menor cost i que compleixen la mateixa funció. Com hem esmentat , molts productes han estat substituïts per d’altres que tenen un cost més baix. Creiem que un clar exemple és el tema de la roba. La moda és un mercat en competència perfecte, en que les diferents empreses que s’hi dediquen s’intenten diferenciar per diferents aspectes però el preu ve fixat per la relació entre oferta i demanda. És un bé que tothom ha de consumir, en major o menor grau, però essencial per tota la població. És aquí, on els comerços de segona mà tenen l’oportunitat d’abastir a la demanda d’aquests productes, d’una forma més econòmica, ja que són productes que ja han estat utilitzats i no se’ls hi pot fixar el mateix preu de mercat. El nostre treball es basa en veure com ha afectat l’actual crisi a l’hora de consumir de la població barcelonina, centrant-nos en el mercat de la moda i a partir d’aquí, com l’objetiu principal a l’hora de realitzar-ho, veure si seria viable la creació d’una botiga de roba de segona mà. Les motivacions principals que ens han portat a escollir aquest treball han estat bàsicament tres: La primera d’elles és l’actualitat del tema. Sentim parlar sobre la crisi a qualsevol lloc, ja sigui als mitjans de comunicació, al carrer o dins casa nostra ja que ens està afectant directa o indirectament a tota la població. En segon lloc, creiem que el negoci de segona mà no està gaire ben vist per la majoria de la gent i considerem que és una bona oportunitat que la gent desconeix. Amb la realització del treball ens hi volem endinsar una mica per aquest món, conèixer les possibilitats que amaga i establir la relació entre la crisi i el mercat de segona mà. Per últim trobem el que pertany a la segona part del treball: El muntatge d’una botiga. Com a joves estudiants d’econòmiques, ens crida molt l’atenció el fet de crear un propi negoci. Ens sembla molt interessant tots els processos que s’han de dur a terme fins a l’obertura de la tenda i volem extreure una visió empresarial sobre el treball. Pel que fa a la metodologia que hem seguit per poder realitzar el nostre treball, cal dir que hem separat aquest en dues parts: La primera part és bàsicament teòrica. En ella hem fet una visió general sobre la crisi en que ens trobem, com va arribar i les conseqüències que ha tingut. A continuació hem cercat diferents notícies a la premsa escrita i digital que parlaven de com havia augmentat el consum als comerços de segona mà i hem explicat com són aquests amb exemples de botigues de roba de segona mà. Per últim hem fet un estudi de mercat mitjançant una enquesta per tal de contrastar les hipòtesis inicials del nostre treball que a continuació exposarem i també per treure idees bàsiques sobre com hauria de ser el nostre comerç.La segona part és el treball pràctic, és a dir, tots els passos que hem hagut de seguir des de la idea de creació de la botiga fins a la posada en marxa pròpiament dita. Hem cercat tota la regulació que havíem de complir, ens hem constituït com a societat limitada, hem trobat un local i hem muntat l’interior, hem tingut contactes amb diferents proveïdors de roba, hem contractat als treballadors i hem fet un anàlisi sobre els costos que hauríem de patir a l’inici del projecte i a partir d’aquí extraurem la conclusió sobre si seria viable o no la creació d’aquest negoci. Per últim, exposem les nostres dues hipòtesis inicials, sobre les que a mida que anem avançant pel treball, ens argumentarem i finalment les confirmarem o negarem.1- La crisi ha fet disminuir el poder adquisitiu de la població, de manera que es redueix la despesa en consum i el mercat de la 2a mà es veu beneficiat ja que tenen uns preus inferiors, més accessibles per la majoria de la gent, per un mateix producte o de característiques similars als que compraven fins ara.2- Aprofitant la conjuntura econòmica és viable crear una botiga de roba de segona mà.

Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliary regression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d ∈ [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d & 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 ≤ d & 1,, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributed tests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.

Government Spending and Re-election

Does additional government spending improve the electoral chances of incumbent political parties? This paper provides the first quasi-experimental evidence on this question. Our research design exploits discontinuities in federal funding to local governments in Brazil around several population cutoffs over the period 1982-1985. We find that extra fiscal transfers resulted in a 20% increase in local government spending per capita, and an increase of about 10 percentage points in the re-election probability of local incumbent parties. We also find positive effects of the government spending on education outcomes and earnings, which we interpret as indirect evidence of public service improvements. Together, our results provide evidence that electoral rewards encourage incumbents to spend part of additional revenues on public services valued by voters, a finding in line with agency models of electoral accountability.

Intergovernmental Transfers and Elementary Education: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Brazil

Whether providing additional resources to local communities leads to improved public services and better outcomes more generally, given existing management capacity and incentive and accountability structures, is an unresolved yet important question for public policy. This paper uses a regression-discontinuity design to evaluate the effect of unrestricted fiscal transfers on local spending (including on education), schooling and learning in Brazil. Results show that transfers increase local public spending almost one for one with no evidence of crowding out own revenue or other revenue sources. Extra per capita transfers of 1000 Reais lead to about 0.42 additional years of elementary schooling and student literacy rates increase by about 5.6 percentage points on average. Part of this effect arises through higher teacher-student ratios in municipal elementary school systems. Results also suggest that additional resources have stronger effects in more rural and less developed parts of Brazil.