Analysis of sensitivity with respect to a compositional parameter : A comment on 'Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling' by L. Loosvelt and co-authors

A comment about the article “Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling” writen by L. Loosvelt and co-authors. The present comment is centered in three specific points. The first one is related to the fact that the authors avoid the use of ilr-coordinates. The second one refers to some generalization of sensitivity analysis when input parameters are compositional. The third tries to show that the role of the Dirichlet distribution in the sensitivity analysis is irrelevant

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

The relationship between virtual body ownership and temperature sensitivity.

In the rubber hand illusion tactile stimulation seen on a rubber hand, that is synchronous with tactile stimulation felt on the hidden real hand, can lead to an illusion of ownership over the rubber hand. This illusion has been shown to produce a temperature decrease in the hidden hand, suggesting that such illusory ownership produces disownership of the real hand. Here we apply immersive virtual reality (VR) to experimentally investigate this with respect to sensitivity to temperature change. Forty participants experienced immersion in a VR with a virtual body (VB) seen from a first person perspective. For half the participants the VB was consistent in posture and movement with their own body, and in the other half there was inconsistency. Temperature sensitivity on the palm of the hand was measured before and during the virtual experience. The results show that temperature sensitivity decreased in the consistent compared to the inconsistent condition. Moreover, the change in sensitivity was significantly correlated with the subjective illusion of virtual arm ownership but modulated by the illusion of ownership over the full virtual body. This suggests that a full body ownership illusion results in a unification of the virtual and real bodies into one overall entity - with proprioception and tactile sensations on the real body integrated with the visual presence of the virtual body. The results are interpreted in the framework of a"body matrix" recently introduced into the literature.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

End point of Hawking radiation

The formation and semiclassical evaporation of two-dimensional black holes is studied in an exactly solvable model. Above a certain threshold energy flux, collapsing matter forms a singularity inside an apparent horizon. As the black hole evaporates the apparent horizon recedes and meets the singularity in a finite proper time. The singularity emerges naked, and future evolution of the geometry requires boundary conditions to be imposed there. There is a natural choice of boundary conditions which matches the evaporated black hole solution onto the linear dilaton vacuum. Below the threshold energy flux no horizon forms and boundary conditions can be imposed where infalling matter is reflected from a timelike boundary. All information is recovered at spatial infinity in this case.

The relationship between virtual body ownership and temperature sensitivity.

In the rubber hand illusion tactile stimulation seen on a rubber hand, that is synchronous with tactile stimulation felt on the hidden real hand, can lead to an illusion of ownership over the rubber hand. This illusion has been shown to produce a temperature decrease in the hidden hand, suggesting that such illusory ownership produces disownership of the real hand. Here we apply immersive virtual reality (VR) to experimentally investigate this with respect to sensitivity to temperature change. Forty participants experienced immersion in a VR with a virtual body (VB) seen from a first person perspective. For half the participants the VB was consistent in posture and movement with their own body, and in the other half there was inconsistency. Temperature sensitivity on the palm of the hand was measured before and during the virtual experience. The results show that temperature sensitivity decreased in the consistent compared to the inconsistent condition. Moreover, the change in sensitivity was significantly correlated with the subjective illusion of virtual arm ownership but modulated by the illusion of ownership over the full virtual body. This suggests that a full body ownership illusion results in a unification of the virtual and real bodies into one overall entity - with proprioception and tactile sensations on the real body integrated with the visual presence of the virtual body. The results are interpreted in the framework of a"body matrix" recently introduced into the literature.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Has concentration evolved similarly in manufacturing and services? A sensitivity analysis

Our first objective is to compare the degree of concentration in manufacturing and services, with special emphasis on its evolution in these two sectors, using a sensitivity analysis for different concentration indices and different geographic units of analysis: municipalities and local labour systems of Catalonia in 1991 and 2001. Most concentration measures fail to consider the space in which a particular municipality is located. Our second objective is to overcome this problem by applying two different techniques: by using a clustering measure, and by analysing whether the location quotients computed for each municipality and sector present some kind of spatial autocorrelation process. We take special account of the differences in patterns of concentration according to the technological level of the sectors.

A Method for Sky-Condition Classification from Ground-Based Solar Radiation Measurements

Identification of clouds from satellite images is now a routine task. Observation of clouds from the ground, however, is still needed to acquire a complete description of cloud conditions. Among the standard meteorologicalvariables, solar radiation is the most affected by cloud cover. In this note, a method for using global and diffuse solar radiation data to classify sky conditions into several classes is suggested. A classical maximum-likelihood method is applied for clustering data. The method is applied to a series of four years of solar radiation data and human cloud observations at a site in Catalonia, Spain. With these data, the accuracy of the solar radiation method as compared with human observations is 45% when nine classes of sky conditions are to be distinguished, and it grows significantly to almost 60% when samples are classified in only five different classes. Most errors are explained by limitations in the database; therefore, further work is under way with a more suitable database

Analytical investigation of the atmospheric radiation limits in semigray atmospheres in radiative equilibrium

We model the wavelength-dependent absorption of atmospheric gases by assuming constant mass absorption coefficients in finite-width spectral bands. Such a semigray atmosphere is analytically solved by a discrete ordinate method. The general solution is analyzed for a water vapor saturated atmosphere that also contains a carbon dioxide-like absorbing gas in the infrared. A multiple stable equilibrium with a relative upper limit in the outgoing long-wave radiation is found. Differing from previous radiative–convective models, we find that the amount of carbon dioxide strongly modifies the value of this relative upper limit. This result is also obtained in a gray (i.e., equal absorption of radiation at all infrared wavelengths) water vapor saturated atmosphere. The destabilizing effect of carbon dioxide implies that massive carbon dioxide atmospheres are more likely to reach a runaway greenhouse state than thin carbon dioxide ones