Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

DIC.CAT. Dona, immigració i ciutadania: les dones marrquines com a generadores de ciutadania a Catalunya

DIC.CAT es centra en les contribucions a la ciutadania que realitzen les dones immigrants marroquines, sobre les quals recauen forts estereotips i imatges que, sovint, les vinculen a la passivitat i a la submissió. Partint d'aquest fet, el projecte analitza el paper d'aquetes dones com a generadores de noves formes de ciutadania a Catalunya, a partir de les seves accions en les esferes pública i privada. El projecte contribueix, d'una banda a ampliar el coneixement teòric sobre la noció de ciutadania, incorporant la dimensió del gènere i partint de la realitat multicultural actual; i de l'altra a aprofundir sobre el rol que estan exercint les doens marroquines estudiades, com agents actius de xsocialització i generadores de canvis en els formes d'exercir la ciutadania en la societat catalana. Destaquen les accions que desenvolupen des de la seva quotidianitat en relació a aspectes com el procés de reagrupació, la incorporació al mercat laboral, la transmissio de valores dins la familia, la relació amb la comunitat d'origen, les motivacions, aspiracions o els projectes professionals i personals propis. Alhora, el projecte vincula aquestes accions amb les que desenvolupen des dels espais públics en els que participen, especialment dins l'àmbit associatiu.

Pitfalls to Avoid when Measuring Institutions: Is 'Doing Business' Damaging Business?

Over recent years, both governments and international aid organizations have been devoting large amounts of resources to "simplifying" the procedures for setting up and formalizing firms. Many of these actions have focused on reducing the initial costs of setting up the firm, disregarding the more important role of business registers as a source of reliable information for judges, government departments and, above all, other firms. This reliable information is essential for reducing transaction costs in future dealings with all sorts of economic agents, both public and private. The priorities of reform policies should therefore be thoroughly reviewed, stressing the value of the legal institutions rather than trivializing them as is often the case.