Interaccion among systems of finite size in predictive relativistic mechanics -II. Electromagnetic and gravitational interactions

We explicitly construct a closed system of differential equations describing the electromagnetic and gravitational interactions among bodies to first order in the coupling constants, retaining terms up to order c-2. The Breit and Barker and O'Connell Hamiltonians are recovered by means of a coordinate transformation. The method used throws light on the meaning of these coordinates.

Interactions among systems of finite size en predictive relativistic mechanics III. Short-range interaction and second-order terms

We compute up to and including all the c-2 terms in the dynamical equations for extended bodies interacting through electromagnetic, gravitational, or short-range fields. We show that these equations can be reduced to those of point particles with intrinsic angular momentum assuming spherical symmetry.

Classical predictive electrodynamics of two charges with radiation: General framework. I.

Outgoing radiation is introduced in the framework of the classical predictive electrodynamics using LorentzDiracs equation as a subsidiary condition. In a perturbative scheme in the charges the first radiative self-terms of the accelerations, momentum and angular momentum of a two charge system without external field are calculated.

Classical predictive electrodynamics of two charges with radiation: Energy and 3. momentum balance and scattering crossections-II

We deal with a classical predictive mechanical system of two spinless charges where radiation is considered and there are no external fields. The terms (2,2)Paa of the expansion in the charges of the HamiltonJacobi momenta are calculated. Using these, together with known previous results, we can obtain the paa up to the fourth order. Then we have calculated the radiated energy and the 3-momentum in a scattering process as functions of the impact parameter and the incident energy for the former and 3-momentum for the latter. Scattering cross-sections are also calculated. Good agreement with well known results, including those of quantum electrodynamics, has been found.

The problem of physical coordinates in predictive Hamiltonian systems

In the Hamiltonian formulation of predictive relativistic systems, the canonical coordinates cannot be the physical positions. The relation between them is given by the individuality differential equations. However, due to the arbitrariness in the choice of Cauchy data, there is a wide family of solutions for these equations. In general, those solutions do not satisfy the condition of constancy of velocities moduli, and therefore we have to reparametrize the world lines into the proper time. We derive here a condition on the Cauchy data for the individuality equations which ensures the constancy of the velocities moduli and makes the reparametrization unnecessary.

Predictive factors in the long term outcome in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: six years follow up of 107 patients

There is little information concerning the long term outcome of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). Thus 109 patients with reflux symptoms (33 with erosive oesophagitis) with a diagnosis of GORD after clinical evaluation and oesophageal testing were studied. All patients were treated with a stepwise approach: (a) lifestyle changes were suggested aimed at reducing reflux and antacids and the prokinetic agent domperidone were prescribed; (b) H2 blockers were added after two months when symptoms persisted; (c) anti-reflux surgery was indicated when there was no response to (b). Treatment was adjusted to maintain clinical remission during follow up. Long term treatment need was defined as minor when conservative measures sufficed for proper control, and as major if daily H2 blockers or surgery were required. The results showed that one third of the patients each had initial therapeutic need (a), (b), and (c). Of 103 patients available for follow up at three years and 89 at six years, respective therapeutic needs were minor in 52% and 55% and major in 48% and 45%. Eighty per cent of patients in (a), 67% in (b), and 17% in (c) required only conservative measures at six years. A decreasing lower oesophageal sphincter pressure (p < 0.001), radiological reflux (p = 0.028), and erosive oesophagitis (p = 0.031), but not initial clinical scores, were independent predictors of major therapeutic need as shown by multivariate analysis. The long term outcome of GORD is better than previously perceived.

Monitoring mortality as an indicator of influenza in Catalonia, Spain.

This study aimed to investigate the behaviour of two indicators of influenza activity in the area of Barcelona and to evaluate the usefulness of modelling them to improve the detection of influenza epidemics. DESIGN: Descriptive time series study using the number of deaths due to all causes registered by funeral services and reported cases of influenza-like illness. The study concentrated on five influenza seasons, from week 45 of 1988 to week 44 of 1993. The weekly number of deaths and cases of influenza-like illness registered were processed using identification of a time series ARIMA model. SETTING: Six large towns in the Barcelona province which have more than 60,000 inhabitants and funeral services in all of them. MAIN RESULTS: For mortality, the proposed model was an autoregressive one of order 2 (ARIMA (2,0,0)) and for morbidity it was one of order 3 (ARIMA (3,0,0)). Finally, the two time series were analysed together to facilitate the detection of possible implications between them. The joint study of the two series shows that the mortality series can be modelled separately from the reported morbidity series, but the morbidity series is influenced as much by the number of previous cases of influenza reported as by the previous mortality registered. CONCLUSIONS: The model based on general mortality is useful for detecting epidemic activity of influenza. However, because there is not an absolute gold standard that allows definition of the beginning of the epidemic, the final decision of when it is considered an epidemic and control measures recommended should be taken after evaluating all the indicators included in the influenza surveillance programme.

Rockfall monitoring by Terrestrial Laser Scanning ¿ case study of the basaltic rock face at Castellfollit de la Roca (Catalonia, Spain)

This case study deals with a rock face monitoring in urban areas using a Terrestrial Laser Scanner. The pilot study area is an almost vertical, fifty meter high cliff, on top of which the village of Castellfollit de la Roca is located. Rockfall activity is currently causing a retreat of the rock face, which may endanger the houses located at its edge. TLS datasets consist of high density 3-D point clouds acquired from five stations, nine times in a time span of 22 months (from March 2006 to January 2008). The change detection, i.e. rockfalls, was performed through a sequential comparison of datasets. Two types of mass movement were detected in the monitoring period: (a) detachment of single basaltic columns, with magnitudes below 1.5 m3 and (b) detachment of groups of columns, with magnitudes of 1.5 to 150 m3. Furthermore, the historical record revealed (c) the occurrence of slab failures with magnitudes higher than 150 m3. Displacements of a likely slab failure were measured, suggesting an apparent stationary stage. Even failures are clearly episodic, our results, together with the study of the historical record, enabled us to estimate a mean detachment of material from 46 to 91.5 m3 year¿1. The application of TLS considerably improved our understanding of rockfall phenomena in the study area.

On the complementariness of infrasound and seismic sensors for monitoring snow avalanches

The paper analyses and compares infrasonic and seismic data from snow avalanches monitored at the Vallée de la Sionne test site in Switzerland from 2009 to 2010. Using a combination of seismic and infrasound sensors, it is possible not only to detect a snow avalanche but also to distinguish between the different flow regimes and to analyse duration, average speed (for sections of the avalanche path) and avalanche size. Different sensitiveness of the seismic and infrasound sensors to the avalanche regimes is shown. Furthermore, the high amplitudes observed in the infrasound signal for one avalanche were modelled assuming that the suspension layer of the avalanche acts as a moving turbulent sound source. Our results show reproducibility for similar avalanches on the same avalanche path.

On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

Rapid Biodiversity Assessment and Monitoring Method for Highly Diverse Benthic Communities: A Case Study of Mediterranean Coralligenous Outcrops

Increasing anthropogenic pressures urge enhanced knowledge and understanding of the current state of marine biodiversity. This baseline information is pivotal to explore present trends, detect future modifications and propose adequate management actions for marine ecosystems. Coralligenous outcrops are a highly diverse and structurally complex deep-water habitat faced with major threats in the Mediterranean Sea. Despite its ecological, aesthetic and economic value, coralligenous biodiversity patterns are still poorly understood. There is currently no single sampling method that has been demonstrated to be sufficiently representative to ensure adequate community assessment and monitoring in this habitat. Therefore, we propose a rapid non-destructive protocol for biodiversity assessment and monitoring of coralligenous outcrops providing good estimates of its structure and species composition, based on photographic sampling and the determination of presence/absence of macrobenthic species. We used an extensive photographic survey, covering several spatial scales (100s of m to 100s of km) within the NW Mediterranean and including 2 different coralligenous assemblages: Paramuricea clavata (PCA) and Corallium rubrum assemblage (CRA). This approach allowed us to determine the minimal sampling area for each assemblage (5000 cm² for PCA and 2500 cm²for CRA). In addition, we conclude that 3 replicates provide an optimal sampling effort in order to maximize the species number and to assess the main biodiversity patterns of studied assemblages in variability studies requiring replicates. We contend that the proposed sampling approach provides a valuable tool for management and conservation planning, monitoring and research programs focused on coralligenous outcrops, potentially also applicable in other benthic ecosystems

Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.

Local model predictive control experiences with differential driven wheeled mobile robots

This work extends a previously developed research concerning about the use of local model predictive control in differential driven mobile robots. Hence, experimental results are presented as a way to improve the methodology by considering aspects as trajectory accuracy and time performance. In this sense, the cost function and the prediction horizon are important aspects to be considered. The aim of the present work is to test the control method by measuring trajectory tracking accuracy and time performance. Moreover, strategies for the integration with perception system and path planning are briefly introduced. In this sense, monocular image data can be used to plan safety trajectories by using goal attraction potential fields

Mobile Robot Local Predictive Control under Perception Constraints

This research extends a previously developed work concerning about the use of local model predictive control in mobile robots. Hence, experimental results are presented as a way to improve the methodology by considering aspects as trajectory accuracy and time performance. In this sense, the cost function and the prediction horizon are important aspects to be considered. The platformused is a differential driven robot with a free rotating wheel. The aim of the present work is to test the control method by measuring trajectory tracking accuracy and time performance. Moreover, strategies for the integration with perception system and path planning are also introduced. In this sense, monocular image data provide an occupancy grid where safety trajectories are computed by using goal attraction potential fields

Real-time monitoring of the silicidation process of tungsten filaments at high temperature used as catalysers for silane decomposition

The scope of this work is the systematic study of the silicidation process affecting tungsten filaments at high temperature (1900ºC) used for silane decomposition in the hot-wire chemical vapour deposition technique (HWCVD). The correlation between the electrical resistance evolution of the filaments, Rfil(t), and the different stages of the their silicidation process is exposed. Said stages correspond to: the rapid formation of two WSi2 fronts at the cold ends of the filaments and their further propagation towards the middle of the filaments; and, regarding the hot central portion of the filaments: a initial stage of silicon dissolution into the tungsten bulk, with a random duration for as-manufactured filaments, followed by the inhomogeneous nucleation of W5Si3 (which is later replaced by WSi2) and its further growth towards the filaments core. An electrical model is used to obtain real-time information about the current status of the filaments silicidation process by simply monitoring their Rfil(t) evolution during the HWCVD process. It is shown that implementing an annealing pre-treatment to the filaments leads to a clearly repetitive trend in the monitored Rfil(t) signatures. The influence of hydrogen dilution of silane on the filaments silicidation process is also discussed.