Sustainability of EU fiscal policies. A panel test

The fiscal policy rule implicit in the Stability and Growth Pact, has been rationalised as a way to ensure that national fiscal policies remain sustainable within the EU, thereby endorsing the independence of the ECB. We empirically examine the sustainability of European fiscal policies over the period 1970-2001. The intertemporal government budget constraint provides a test based on the cointegration relation between government revenues, expenditures and interest payments. Sustainability is analysed at both the national level and for a European panel. Results show that European fiscal policy has been sustainable overall, yet national experiences differ considerably.

Another Look at the Null of Stationary Real Exchange Rates: Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence

This paper re-examines the null of stationary of real exchange rate for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. Our analysis simultaneously considers both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous panel methods of long-run PPP. Empirical results indicate that there is little evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when the analysis does not account for structural breaks. This conclusion is reversed when structural breaks are considered in computation of the panel statistics. We also compute point estimates of half-life separately for idiosyncratic and common factor components and find that it is always below one year.

Motorways, tolls and road safety. Evidence from European Panel Data

The use of tolls is being widespread around the world. Its ability to fund infrastructure projects and to solve budget constraints have been the main rationale behind its renewed interest. However, less attention has been payed to the safety effects derived from this policy in a moment of increasing concern on road fatalities. Pricing best infrastructures shifts some drivers onto worse alternative roads usually not prepared to receive high traffic in comparable safety standards. In this paper we provide evidence of the existence of this perverse consequence by using an international European panel in a two way fixed effects estimation.

Panel Data Stochastic Convergence Analysis of the Mexican Regions

The stochastic convergence amongst Mexican Federal entities is analyzed in panel data framework. The joint consideration of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks is required to ensure that the statistical inference is based on statistics with good statistical properties. Once these features are accounted for, evidence in favour of stochastic convergence is found. Since stochastic convergence is a necessary, yet insufficient condition for convergence as predicted by economic growth models, the paper also investigates whether-convergence process has taken place. We found that the Mexican states have followed either heterogeneous convergence patterns or divergence process throughout the analyzed period.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.