Business cycles, unemployment insurance and the calibration of matching models

This paper theoretically and empirically documents a puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, either sticky wages or match-specific productivity shocks can improve the model's performance by making the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, which makes hiring more procyclical too.

Lobbying, innovation and protectionist cycles

This paper explains why trade liberalizations occur in developing countries,and why they are often reversed. It does so by focusing on the use oflobbying for protection by import competing firms as a means to postponecostly product quality upgrades to keep up with foreign competitors. Giventhe availability of a political market for import tariffs, domestic firmswill lobby for a sequence of tariffs that insulate domestic profits from awidening quality gap, thereby allowing adjustment to be postponed. But asthe contributions required by the government grow with the size of thequality gap, it will be optimal to adjust quality and to decrease thelobbying effort at some time, leading to liberalization and technologicalcatch-up. But then the equilibrium tariff will again be small and "cheap",and it will pay to start lobbying anew, until the next quality adjustment.Therefore, cycles in protection will occur as a result of the use oflobbying as a substitute for innovation. The model thus sheds new light onthe impact of the costs of protection on the effectiveness of the lobbyingeffort over time, and on their implications for the timing and the timehorizon of trade reforms in developing countries.

Endogenous business cycles and stabilization policies

The paper reports results on the effects of stylized stabilization policies on endogenously created fluctuations. A simple monetary model with intertemporally optimizing agents is considered. Fluctuations in output may occur due to fluctuations in labor supply which are again caused by volatile expectations which are ``self fulfilling'', i.e. correct given the model. It turns out that stabilization policies that are sufficiently countercyclical in the sense that government spending (on transfers or demand) depends sufficiently strongly negatively on GNP-increases can stabilize the economy at a monetary steadystate for an arbitrarily low degree of distortion of that steady state. Such stabilization has unambiguously good welfare effects and can be achieved without features such as positive lump sum taxation or negative income taxation as part of the stabilization policy.

Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles

Business cycles are both less volatile and more synchronized with the world cycle in rich countries than in poor ones. We develop two alternative explanations based on the idea that comparative advantage causes rich countries to specialize in industries that use new technologies operated by skilled workers, while poor countries specialize in industries that use traditional technologies operated by unskilled workers. Since new technologies are difficult to imitate, the industries of rich countries enjoy more market power and face more inelastic product demands than those of poor countries. Since skilled workers are less likely to exit employment as a result of changes in economic conditions, industries in rich countries face more inelastic labour supplies than those of poor countries. We show that either asymmetry in industry characteristics can generate cross-country differences in business cycles that resemble those we observe in the data.

Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, andthe Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panelVAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and threeoutside of it. There are changes in the features of European business cycles and in thetransmission of shocks. They precede the three events of interest and are more linkedto a general process of European convergence and synchronization.

The Brauer group and the second Abel-Jacobi map for 0-cycles on algebraic varieties

This paper focuses on the connection between the Brauer group and the 0-cycles of an algebraic variety. We give an alternative construction of the second l-adic Abel-Jacobi map for such cycles, linked to the algebraic geometry of Severi-Brauer varieties on X. This allows us then to relate this Abel-Jacobi map to the standard pairing between 0-cycles and Brauer groups (see [M], [L]), completing results from [M] in this direction. Second, for surfaces, it allows us to present this map according to the more geometrical approach devised by M. Green in the framework of (arithmetic) mixed Hodge structures (see [G]). Needless to say, this paper owes much to the work of U. Jannsen and, especially, to his recently published older letter [J4] to B. Gross.

Gp74 a membrane glycoprotein of the cis-Golgi network that cycles through the endoplasmic reticulum and intermediate compartment

A monoclonal antibody CC92 (IgM), raised against a fraction of rat liver enriched in Golgi membranes, recognizes a novel Endo H-resistant 74-kD membrane glycoprotein (gp74). The bulk of gp74 is confined to the cis-Golgi network (CGN). Outside the Golgi gp74 is found in tubulovesicular structures and ER foci. In cells incubated at 37 degrees C the majority of gp74 is segregated from the intermediate compartment (IC) marker p58. However, in cells treated with organelle perturbants such as low temperature, BFA, and [AIF4]- the patterns of the two proteins become indistinguishable. Both proteins are retained in the Golgi complex at 20 degrees C and in the IC at 15 degrees C. Incubation of cells with BFA results in relocation of gp74 to p58 positive IC elements. [AIF4]- induces the redistribution of gp74 from the Golgi to p58-positive vesicles and does not retard the translocation of gp74 to IC elements in cells treated with BFA. Disruption of microtubules by nocodazol results in the rapid disappearance of the Golgi elements stained by gp74 and redistribution of the protein into vesicle-like structures. The responses of gp74 to cell perturbants are in sharp contrast with those of cis/middle and trans-Golgi resident proteins whose location is not affected by low temperatures or [AIF4]-, are translocated to the ER upon addition of BFA, and stay in slow disintegrating Golgi elements in cells treated with nocodazol. The results suggest that gp74 is an itinerant protein that resides most of the time in the CGN and cycles through the ER/IC following the pathway used by p58.

Effects of riparian vegetation removal on nutrient retention in a Mediterranean stream

We examined the effects of riparian vegetation removal on algal dynamics and stream nutrient retention efficiency by comparing NH4-N and PO4-P uptake lengths from a logged and an unlogged reach in Riera Major, a forested Mediterranean stream in northeastern Spain. From June to September 1995, we executed 6 short-term additions of N (as NH4Cl) and P (as Na2HPO4) in a 200-m section to measure nutrient uptake lengths. The study site included 2 clearly differentiated reaches in terms of canopy cover by riparian trees: the first 100 m were completely logged (i.e., the logged reach) and the remaining 100 m were left intact (i.e., the shaded reach). Trees were removed from the banks of the logged reach in the winter previous to our sampling. In the shaded reach, riparian vegetation was dominated by alders (Alnus glutinosa). The study was conducted during summer and fall months when differences in light availability between the 2 reaches were greatest because of forest canopy conditions. Algal biomass and % of stream surface covered by algae were higher in the logged than in the shaded reach, indicating that logging had a stimulatory effect on algae in the stream. Overall, nutrient retention efficiency was higher (i.e., shorter uptake lengths) in the logged than in the shaded reach, especially for PO4-P. Despite a greater increase in PO4-P retention efficiency relative to that of NH4-N following logging, retention efficiency for NH4-N was higher than for PO4-P in both study reaches. The PO4-P mass-transfer coefficient was correlated with primary production in both study reaches, indicating that algal activity plays an important role in controlling PO4-P dynamics in this stream. In contrast, the NH4-N mass-transfer coefficient showed a positive relation-ship only with % of algal coverage in the logged reach, and was not correlated with any algal-related parameter in the shaded reach. The lack of correlation with algal production suggests that mechanisms other than algal activity (i.e., microbial heterotrophic processes or abiotic mechanisms) may also influence NH4-N retention in this stream. Overall, this study shows that logging disturbances in small shaded streams may alter in-stream ecological features that lead to changes in stream nutrient retention efficiency. Moreover, it emphasizes that alteration of the tight linkage between the stream channel and the adjacent riparian zone may directly and indirectly impact biogeochemical processes with implications for stream ecosystem functioning.

Man-bites-dog business cycles

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it isand this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. In particular, weanalyze the consequences of information structures in which some types of signals are morelikely to be observed after unusual events. Such signals may increase both uncertainty anddisagreement among agents and when embedded in a simple business cycle model, can helpus understand why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macro economic aggregatevariables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals (ii) persistentperiods of high macroeconomic volatility and (iii) a positive correlation between absolutechanges in macro variables and the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations as measuredby survey data. These results are consequences of optimal updating by agents when theavailability of some signals is positively correlated with tail-events. The model is estimatedby likelihood based methods using individual survey responses and a quarterly time seriesof total factor productivity along with standard aggregate time series. The estimated modelsuggests that there have been episodes in recent US history when the impact on outputof innovations to productivity of a given magnitude was more than eight times as largecompared to other times.

Summer ozone cycles in the Lisbon metropolitan area and its relation to some meteorological variables

The aim of this work is to study the tropospheric ozone concentrations and daily peak cycles in the Lisbon MetropolitanArea (LMA) during the summer season (June, July and August, JJA) covering the 4-yr study period 2002-2005. Theresults show that all the stations have the same pattern: a minimum in the early morning followed by an increase at 1000UTC reaching to a peak at 1300-1400 UTC, dropped again to minimum values 1800 UTC but with different concentrationsdue to regional and local wind circulations and complex dynamic interactions. We identified in Lisbon city the ozone “weekendeffect”. Finally, we studied an episode of very high levels of tropospheric ozone and related daily ozone concentrationswith some meteorological variables.

Liquid fructose down-regulates liver insulin receptor substrate 2 and gluconeogeneic enzymes by modifying nutrient sensing factors in rats

High consumption of fructose-sweetened beverages has been linked to a high prevalence of chronic metabolic diseases. We have previously shown that a short course of fructose supplementation as a liquid solution induces glucose intolerance in female rats. In the present work, we characterized the fructose-driven changes in the liver and the molecular pathways involved. To this end, female rats were supplemented or not with liquid fructose (10%, w/v) for 7 or 14 days. Glucose and pyruvate tolerance tests were performed, and the expression of genes related to insulin signaling, gluconeogenesis and nutrient sensing pathways was evaluated. Fructose-supplemented rats showed increased plasma glucose excursions in glucose and pyruvate tolerance tests and reduced hepatic expression of several genes related to insulin signaling, including insulin receptor substrate 2 (IRS-2). However, the expression of key gluconeogenic enzymes, glucose-6-phosphatase and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase, was reduced. These effects were caused by an inactivation of hepatic forkhead box O1 (FoxO1) due to an increase in its acetylation state driven by a reduced expression and activity of sirtuin 1 (SIRT1). Further contributing to FoxO1 inactivation, fructose consumption elevated liver expression of the spliced form of X-box-binding-protein-1 as a consequence of an increase in the activity of the mammalian target of rapamycin 1 and protein 38-mitogen activated protein kinase (p38-MAPK). Liquid fructose affects both insulin signaling (IRS-2 and FoxO1) and nutrient sensing pathways (p38-MAPK, mTOR and SIRT1), thus disrupting hepatic insulin signaling without increasing the expression of key gluconeogenic enzymes.

Sur le théorème locale des cycles invariants

Si on considère une famille de variétés projectives complexes non singulières, c"est un fait aujourd'hui bien connu que les possibles variétés singulières vers lesquelles peut dégénerer cette famille doivent vérifier certaines contraintes, parmi lesquelles une importante relation entre la cohomologie de la fibre singulière, la cohomologie de la fibre générique et la monodromie de la famille, qui est precise par le théorème local des cycles invariants prouvé par Clemens, Deligne et Steenbrink ([1], [4], [13]) : tous les cocycles de la fibre générique qui sont invariants par la monodromie autour d¡une fibre singulière proviennent par spécialisation de la cohomologie de cette fibre singulière.

Fertilizing Methods and Nutrient Balance at the End of Traditional Organic Agriculture in the Mediterranean Bioregion: Catalonia (Spain) in the 1860s

By reconstructing the nutrient balance of a Catalan v illage circa 1861-65 we examine the sustainability of organic agricultural sy stems in the northwest Mediterranean bioregion prior to the green rev olution and the question of whether the nutrients extracted f rom the soil were replenished. With a population density of 59 inhabitants per square km, similar to other northern European rural areas at that time, and a lower liv estock density per cropland unit, this v illage experienced a manure shortage. The gap was f illed by other labour-intensiv e way s of transf erring nutrients f rom uncultiv ated areas into the cropland. Key elements in this agricultural sy stem were v iney ards because they hav e f ew nutrient requirements, and woodland and scrublands as sources of relev ant amounts of nutrients collected in sev eral ways.

Erratum: Global pressures, specific responses: effects of nutrient enrichment in streams from different biomes

We assessed the effects of nutrient enrichment on three stream ecosystems running through distinct biomes (Mediterranean, Pampean and Andean). We increased the concentrations of N and P in the stream water 1.6–4-fold following a before–after control–impact paired series (BACIPS) design in each stream, and evaluated changes in the biomass of bacteria, primary producers, invertebrates and fish in the enriched (E) versus control (C) reaches after nutrient addition through a predictive-BACIPS approach. The treatment produced variable biomass responses (2–77% of explained variance) among biological communities and streams. The greatest biomass response was observed for algae in the Andean stream (77% of the variance), although fish also showed important biomass responses (about 9–48%). The strongest biomass response to enrichment (77% in all biological compartments) was found in the Andean stream. The magnitude and seasonality of biomass responses to enrichment were highly site specific, often depending on the basal nutrient concentration and on windows of ecological opportunity (periods when environmental constraints other than nutrients do not limit biomass growth). The Pampean stream, with high basal nutrient concentrations, showed a weak response to enrichment (except for invertebrates), whereas the greater responses of Andean stream communities were presumably favored by wider windows of ecological opportunity in comparison to those from the Mediterranean stream. Despite variation among sites, enrichment globally stimulated the algal-based food webs (algae and invertebrate grazers) but not the detritus-based food webs (bacteria and invertebrate shredders). This study shows that nutrient enrichment tends to globally enhance the biomass of stream biological assemblages, but that its magnitude and extent within the food web are complex and are strongly determined by environmental factors and ecosystem structure