34 resultados para North, Dudley, Sir, 1641-1691.
Resumo:
This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections.
Resumo:
The present paper shows an in-depth analysis of the evolution of floods and precipitation in Catalonia for the period 1981-2010. In order to have homogeneous information, and having in mind that not gauge data was available for all the events, neither for all the rivers and stream flows, daily press from a specific newspaper has been systematically analysed for this period. Furthermore a comparison with a longer period starting in 1900 has been done. 219 flood events (mainly flash flood events) have been identified for the period of 30 years (375 starting in 1900), 79 of them were ordinary, 117 of them were extraordinary and 23 of them were catastrophic, being autumn and summer the seasons with the maxima values. 19% of the events caused a total of 110 casualties. 60% of them died when they tried to cross the street or the stream. Factors like the evolution of precipitation, population density and other socio-economical aspects have been considered. The trend analysis shows an increase of 1 flood/decade that probably has been mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density and in land-use and land-cover.
Resumo:
This study aimed to describe patterns of diversity of Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) at the ommunity and population levels within the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula). We studied both the distribution of 4 species of baetids in 20 sites among three catchments along the altitudinal gradient (350-1700 masl); and the genetic diversity of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) gene of the two common species Baetis alpinus and Baetis rhodani. We found a gradual replacement of the dominant species along the altitudinal gradient. Baetis alpinus inhabited sites at high-altitudes, and this species was replaced by B. rhodani when the altitude decreased. Baetis melanonyx and Alainites muticus attained low abundance at all river sections, and no clear altitudinal trend appeared. Our hypothesis at the population level was that genetic structuring is associated with geographic distance and limited by drainage boundaries among the three studied catchments because of the short-time dispersion of adults. Unexpectedly, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) and isolation-bydistance (IBD) showed genetic diversity was unstructured by distance for both species, which may be explained by the relatively short spatial scale studied and small topographic barriers among the three catchments. The Generalized Mixed Yule-Coalescent (GMYC) model showed that B. rhodani had two differentiated genetic lineages that co-occurred in all sites. Overall, diversity of baetids was structured at the community level along the altitudinal gradient, whereas it was unstructured at the population level within the Montseny Mountain range.
Resumo:
This study aimed to describe patterns of diversity of Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) at the ommunity and population levels within the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula). We studied both the distribution of 4 species of baetids in 20 sites among three catchments along the altitudinal gradient (350-1700 masl); and the genetic diversity of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) gene of the two common species Baetis alpinus and Baetis rhodani. We found a gradual replacement of the dominant species along the altitudinal gradient. Baetis alpinus inhabited sites at high-altitudes, and this species was replaced by B. rhodani when the altitude decreased. Baetis melanonyx and Alainites muticus attained low abundance at all river sections, and no clear altitudinal trend appeared. Our hypothesis at the population level was that genetic structuring is associated with geographic distance and limited by drainage boundaries among the three studied catchments because of the short-time dispersion of adults. Unexpectedly, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) and isolation-bydistance (IBD) showed genetic diversity was unstructured by distance for both species, which may be explained by the relatively short spatial scale studied and small topographic barriers among the three catchments. The Generalized Mixed Yule-Coalescent (GMYC) model showed that B. rhodani had two differentiated genetic lineages that co-occurred in all sites. Overall, diversity of baetids was structured at the community level along the altitudinal gradient, whereas it was unstructured at the population level within the Montseny Mountain range.
