Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Implementation of a robust coded structured light technique for dynamic 3D measurements

This paper presents the implementation details of a coded structured light system for rapid shape acquisition of unknown surfaces. Such techniques are based on the projection of patterns onto a measuring surface and grabbing images of every projection with a camera. Analyzing the pattern deformations that appear in the images, 3D information of the surface can be calculated. The implemented technique projects a unique pattern so that it can be used to measure moving surfaces. The structure of the pattern is a grid where the color of the slits are selected using a De Bruijn sequence. Moreover, since both axis of the pattern are coded, the cross points of the grid have two codewords (which permits to reconstruct them very precisely), while pixels belonging to horizontal and vertical slits have also a codeword. Different sets of colors are used for horizontal and vertical slits, so the resulting pattern is invariant to rotation. Therefore, the alignment constraint between camera and projector considered by a lot of authors is not necessary

Presidents and parties in regional politics: Italy and Spain compared

This article examines the relationship between political parties and regional presidents in Italy and Spain, adopting a comparative case study approach based on extensive archival analysis and in-depth interviews with regional politicians. The findings confirm a strong pattern of growing presidentialism at regional level, regardless of whether there are formal mechanisms for direct election, and regardless of the partisan composition of regional government. Regional presidents tend to exert their growing power through a personalised control of regional party organisations, rather than governing past parties in a direct appeal to the electorate. Nevertheless, parties can still present a significant constraint on regional presidents, so successful regional presidents tend to maintain a mediating form of leadership and fully exploit the opportunities for party patronage to build up their support and smooth governing tensions. An autonomist drive helps presidents hold together disparate coalitions or loose parties at regional level, but their lack of internal coherence presents major problems when it comes to political succession.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Disruption management

The main objective of this project is to model the ARP (Aircraft Recovery Problem) from a constraint programming (CP) point of view. The information required for this project is extracted from previous papers that cope with the problem using heuristics, metaheuristics or using network-models. Also, two scenarios will be tested to verify that the implementation is correct.

Fault diagnosis by refining the parameter uncertainty space of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation problems for nonlinear dynamic systems. Both problems are stated as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and solved using consistency techniques. The main contribution is the isolation method based on consistency techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. The major advantage of this method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements, and model errors. Interval calculations bring independence from the assumption of monotony considered by several approaches for fault isolation which are based on observers. An application to a well known alcoholic fermentation process model is presented

Robust fault detection using consistency techniques for uncertainty handling

Often practical performance of analytical redundancy for fault detection and diagnosis is decreased by uncertainties prevailing not only in the system model, but also in the measurements. In this paper, the problem of fault detection is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem over continuous domains with a big number of variables and constraints. This problem can be solved using modal interval analysis and consistency techniques. Consistency techniques are then shown to be particularly efficient to check the consistency of the analytical redundancy relations (ARRs), dealing with uncertain measurements and parameters. Through the work presented in this paper, it can be observed that consistency techniques can be used to increase the performance of a robust fault detection tool, which is based on interval arithmetic. The proposed method is illustrated using a nonlinear dynamic model of a hydraulic system

Characterization and evolution of the novel gene family FAM90A in primates originated by multiple duplication and rearrangement events

Genomic plasticity of human chromosome 8p23.1 region is highly influenced by two groups of complex segmental duplications (SDs), termed REPD and REPP, that mediate different kinds of rearrangements. Part of the difficulty to explain the wide range of phenotypes associated with 8p23.1 rearrangements is that REPP and REPD are not yet well characterized, probably due to their polymorphic status. Here, we describe a novel primate-specific gene family, named FAM90A (family with sequence similarity 90), found within these SDs. According to the current human reference sequence assembly, the FAM90A family includes 24 members along 8p23.1 region plus a single member on chromosome 12p13.31, showing copy number variation (CNV) between individuals. These genes can be classified into subfamilies I and II, which differ in their upstream and 5′-untranslated region sequences, but both share the same open reading frame and are ubiquitously expressed. Sequence analysis and comparative fluorescence in situ hybridization studies showed that FAM90A subfamily II suffered a big expansion in the hominoid lineage, whereas subfamily I members were likely generated sometime around the divergence of orangutan and African great apes by a fusion process. In addition, the analysis of the Ka/Ks ratios provides evidence of functional constraint of some FAM90A genes in all species. The characterization of the FAM90A gene family contributes to a better understanding of the structural polymorphism of the human 8p23.1 region and constitutes a good example of how SDs, CNVs and rearrangements within themselves can promote the formation of new gene sequences with potential functional consequences.

Design and evaluation of a panel os single-nucleotide polymorphisms in microRNA genomic regions for association studies in human disease

MicroRNAs (miRNA) are recognized posttranscriptional gene repressors involved in the control of almost every biological process. Allelic variants in these regions may be an important source of phenotypic diversity and contribute to disease susceptibility. We analyzed the genomic organization of 325 human miRNAs (release 7.1, miRBase) to construct a panel of 768 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) covering approximately 1 Mb of genomic DNA, including 131 isolated miRNAs (40%) and 194 miRNAs arranged in 48 miRNA clusters, as well as their 5-kb flanking regions. Of these miRNAs, 37% were inside known protein-coding genes, which were significantly associated with biological functions regarding neurological, psychological or nutritional disorders. SNP coverage analysis revealed a lower SNP density in miRNAs compared with the average of the genome, with only 24 SNPs located in the 325 miRNAs studied. Further genotyping of 340 unrelated Spanish individuals showed that more than half of the SNPs in miRNAs were either rare or monomorphic, in agreement with the reported selective constraint on human miRNAs. A comparison of the minor allele frequencies between Spanish and HapMap population samples confirmed the applicability of this SNP panel to the study of complex disorders among the Spanish population, and revealed two miRNA regions, hsa-mir-26a-2 in the CTDSP2 gene and hsa-mir-128-1 in the R3HDM1 gene, showing geographical allelic frequency variation among the four HapMap populations, probably because of differences in natural selection. The designed miRNA SNP panel could help to identify still hidden links between miRNAs and human disease.

Optimum power allocation for parallel Gaussian channels with arbitrary input distributions

The mutual information of independent parallel Gaussian-noise channels is maximized, under an average power constraint, by independent Gaussian inputs whose power is allocated according to the waterfilling policy. In practice, discrete signalling constellations with limited peak-to-average ratios (m-PSK, m-QAM, etc) are used in lieu of the ideal Gaussian signals. This paper gives the power allocation policy that maximizes the mutual information over parallel channels with arbitrary input distributions. Such policy admits a graphical interpretation, referred to as mercury/waterfilling, which generalizes the waterfilling solution and allows retaining some of its intuition. The relationship between mutual information of Gaussian channels and nonlinear minimum mean-square error proves key to solving the power allocation problem.

Reliable detection of directional couplings using rank statistics

To detect directional couplings from time series various measures based on distances in reconstructed state spaces were introduced. These measures can, however, be biased by asymmetries in the dynamics' structure, noise color, or noise level, which are ubiquitous in experimental signals. Using theoretical reasoning and results from model systems we identify the various sources of bias and show that most of them can be eliminated by an appropriate normalization. We furthermore diminish the remaining biases by introducing a measure based on ranks of distances. This rank-based measure outperforms existing distance-based measures concerning both sensitivity and specificity for directional couplings. Therefore, our findings are relevant for a reliable detection of directional couplings from experimental signals.

Spotting Translationese in two Corpora of Original and Translated Catalan Texts: an Empirical Approach

This research investigates the phenomenon of translationese in two monolingual comparable corpora of original and translated Catalan texts. Translationese has been defined as the dialect, sub-language or code of translated language. This study aims at giving empirical evidence of translation universals regardless the source language.Traditionally, research conducted on translation strategies has been mainly intuition-based. Computational Linguistics and Natural Language Processing techniques provide reliable information of lexical frequencies, morphological and syntactical distribution in corpora. Therefore, they have been applied to observe which translation strategies occur in these corpora.Results seem to prove the simplification, interference and explicitation hypotheses, whereas no sign of normalization has been detected with the methodology used.The data collected and the resources created for identifying lexical, morphological and syntactic patterns of translations can be useful for Translation Studies teachers, scholars and students: teachers will have more tools to help students avoid the reproduction of translationese patterns. Resources developed will help in detecting non-genuine or inadequate structures in the target language. This fact may imply an improvement in stylistic quality in translations. Translation professionals can also take advantage of these resources to improve their translation quality.

BIMS: Biomedical Information Management System

This final year project presents the design principles and prototype implementation of BIMS (Biomedical Information Management System), a flexible software system which provides an infrastructure to manage all information required by biomedical research projects.The BIMS project was initiated with the motivation to solve several limitations in medical data acquisition of some research projects, in which Universitat Pompeu Fabra takes part. These limitations,based on the lack of control mechanisms to constraint information submitted by clinicians, impact on the data quality, decreasing it.BIMS can easily be adapted to manage information of a wide variety of clinical studies, not being limited to a given clinical specialty. The software can manage both, textual information, like clinical data (measurements, demographics, diagnostics, etc ...), as well as several kinds of medical images (magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography, etc ...). Moreover, BIMS provides a web - based graphical user interface and is designed to be deployed in a distributed andmultiuser environment. It is built on top of open source software products and frameworks.Specifically, BIMS has been used to represent all clinical data being currently used within the CardioLab platform (an ongoing project managed by Universitat Pompeu Fabra), demonstratingthat it is a solid software system, which could fulfill requirements of a real production environment.

Financing Constraints, Irreversibility, and Investment Dynamics

We develop a model of an industry with many heterogeneous firms that face both financing constraints and irreversibility constraints. The financing constraint implies that firms cannot borrow unless the debt is secured by collateral; the irreversibility constraint that they can only sell their fixed capital by selling their business. We use this model to examine the cyclical behavior of aggregate fixed investment, variable capital investment, and output in the presence of persistent idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Our model yields three main results. First, the effect of the irreversibility constraint on fixed capital investment is reinforced by the financing constraint. Second, the effect of the financing constraint on variable capital investment is reinforced by the irreversibility constraint. Finally, the interaction between the two constraints is key for explaining why input inventories and material deliveries of US manufacturing firms are so volatile and procyclical, and also why they are highly asymmetrical over the business cycle.

Portfolio delegation under short-selling constraints

In this paper we study delegated portfolio management when themanager's ability to short-sell is restricted. Contrary to previousresults, we show that under moral hazard, linear performance-adjustedcontracts do provide portfolio managers with incentives to gatherinformation. The risk-averse manager's optimal effort is an increasingfunction of her share in the portfolio's return. This result affectsthe risk-averse investor's optimal contract decision. The first best,purely risk-sharing contract is proved to be suboptimal. Usingnumerical methods we show that the manager's share in the portfolioreturn is higher than the rst best share. Additionally, this deviationis shown to be: (i) increasing in the manager's risk aversion and (ii)larger for tighter short-selling restrictions. When the constraint isrelaxed the optimal contract converges towards the first best risksharing contract.