In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

M-Library in an m-University : changing Models in the Open University of Catalonia

The general perspective of M-technologies and M-Services at the Spanish universities is not still in a very high level when we are ending the first decade of the 21st century. Some Universities and some of their libraries are starting to try out with M-technologies, but are still far from a model of massive exploitation, less than in some other countries. A deep study is needed to know the main reasons, study that we will not do in this paper. This general perspective does not mean that there are no significant initiatives which start to trust in M-technologies from Universities and their libraries. Models based in M-technologies make more sense than ever in open universities and in open libraries. That's the reason why the UOC's Library began in late 90s its first experiences in the M-Technologies and M-Libraries developments. In 1999 the appropriate technology offered the opportunity to carry out the first pilot test with SMS, and then applying the WAP technology. At those moments we managed to link-up mobile phones to the OPAC through a WAP system that allowed searching the catalogue by categories and finding the final location of a document, offering also the address of the library in which the user could loan it. Since then, UOC (and its library) directs its efforts towards adapting the offer of services to all sorts of M-devices used by end users. Left the WAP technology, nowadays the library is experimenting with some new devices like e-books, and some new services to get more feedback through the OPAC and metalibrary search products. We propose the case of Open University of Catalonia, in two levels: M-services applied in the library and M-technologies applied in some other university services and resources.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

The impact of labour market status on second and higher-order births. A comparative study of Denmark, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom

This paper investigates the effects of women‘s labour force participation on fertility, as well as the effects of the combined labour force participation of both members of a couple. It specifically focuses on such dimensions as unemployment, earnings, temporary contracts and part-time jobs, and it shows that their effects differ in accordance with national institutions and labour market regulations. Event-history methods and a longitudinal sample of the European Community Household Panel are used in the analyses, concerning the years 1993-2000. The results show that labour market insecurity of one or both members of a couple has a particularly strong impact in reducing birth rates in the Southern European countries studied. The more conventional model of men’s employment combined with housewifery has a positive impact on second or higher order births in United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, while in Denmark the effect is the opposite. These differences are consistent with different national models of combining parental responsibilities and participation by gender across the life course.

The Labor Market Effects of Technology Shocks

We analyze the labor market effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks along the intensive margin (hours worked) and the extensive margin (unemployment). We characterize the dynamic response of unemployment in terms of the job separation and the job finding rate. Labor market adjustments occur along the extensive margin in response to neutral shocks, along the intensive margin in response to investment specific shocks. The job separation rate accounts for a major portion of the impact response of unemployment. Neutral shocks prompt a contemporaneous increase in unemployment because of a sharp rise in the separation rate. This is prolonged by a persistent fall in the job finding rate. Investment specific shocks rise employment and hours worked. Neutral shocks explain a substantial portion of the volatility of unemployment and output; investment specific shocks mainly explain hours worked volatility. This suggests that neutral progress is consistent with Schumpeterian creative destruction, while investment-specific progress operates as in a neoclassical growth model.

Labor markets and monetary policy: A new-Keynesian model with unemployement

We construct a utility-based model of fluctuations, with nominal rigidities andunemployment, and draw its implications for the unemployment-inflation trade-off and for the conduct of monetary policy.We proceed in two steps. We first leave nominal rigidities aside. We show that,under a standard utility specification, productivity shocks have no effect onunemployment in the constrained efficient allocation. We then focus on theimplications of alternative real wage setting mechanisms for fluctuations in un-employment. We show the role of labor market frictions and real wage rigiditiesin determining the effects of productivity shocks on unemployment.We then introduce nominal rigidities in the form of staggered price setting byfirms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discusshow it is influenced by the presence of labor market frictions and real wagerigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment stabilization, and its dependence on labor market characteristics. We draw the implications for optimal monetary policy.

Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Reprisals remembered: German-Greek conflict and car sales during the Euro crisis

During the Greek debt crisis after 2010, the German government insisted on harshausterity measures. This led to a rapid cooling of relations between the Greekand German governments. We compile a new index of public acrimony betweenGermany and Greece based on newspaper reports and internet search terms. Thisinformation is combined with historical maps on German war crimes during theoccupation between 1941 and 1944. During months of open conflict between Germanand Greek politicians, German car sales fell markedly more than those of cars fromother countries. This was especially true in areas affected by German reprisals duringWorldWar II: areas where German troops committed massacres and destroyed entirevillages curtailed their purchases of German cars to a greater extent during conflictmonths than other parts of Greece. We conclude that cultural aversion was a keydeterminant of purchasing behavior, and that memories of past conflict can affecteconomic choices in a time-varying fashion. These findings are compatible withbehavioral models emphasizing the importance of salience for individual decision-making.

Percolation transition and the onset of nonexponential relaxation in fully frustrated models

We numerically study the dynamical properties of fully frustrated models in two and three dimensions. The results obtained support the hypothesis that the percolation transition of the Kasteleyn-Fortuin clusters corresponds to the onset of stretched exponential autocorrelation functions in systems without disorder. This dynamical behavior may be due to the large scale effects of frustration, present below the percolation threshold. Moreover, these results are consistent with the picture suggested by Campbell et al. [J. Phys. C 20, L47 (1987)] in the space of configurations.

Sharp mandibular bone irregularities after lower third molar extraction: Incidence, clinical features and risk factors

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and clinical symptoms associated with sharp mandibular bone irregularities (SMBI) after lower third molar extraction and to identify possible risk factors for this complication. Study Design: A mixed study design was used. A retrospective cohort study of 1432 lower third molar extractions was done to determine the incidence of SMBI and a retrospective case-control study was done to determine potential demographic and etiologic factors by comparing those patients with postoperative SMBI with controls. Results: Twelve SMBI were found (0.84%). Age was the most important risk factor for this complication. The operated side and the presence of an associated radiolucent image were also significantly related to the development of mandibular bone irregularities. The depth of impaction of the tooth might also be an important factor since erupted or nearly erupted third molars were more frequent in the SMBI group. Conclusions: SMBI are a rare postoperative complication after lower third molar removal. Older patients having left side lower third molars removed are more likely to develop this problem. The treatment should be the removal of the irregularity when the patient is symptomatic

Older people's university students in Spain: a comparison of motives and benefits between two models

This study examines both the motives for and the benefits of attending a uni- versity programme for older people (UPOP) in Spain, and how they vary with the type of UPOP. Two UPOP models were assessed: The"Older People"s Classes" of the University of Barcelona, which is organised as a lecture course, and the"University of Experience" at the University of Valencia, which is a three- or four- year variant of regular university degrees. A sample of 321 older students (mean age 67.5 years) was gathered from the two UPOPs, 161 participants from the former and 157 from the latter. The findings suggest that expressive motives such as acquiring knowledge, expanding the mind or learning for the joy of learning were the most important reasons for joining a UPOP, and that among the perceived benefits from taking classes at university featured"gaining more friends","enhanced self or life-satisfaction" and"joy in life". Perceived benefits were particularly high among the less educated and the older students. While students participating in the Older People"s Classes were older and included relatively more women, differences between the two models in motives and benefits did not exist or were slight. These results are discussed in the context of new strategies to improve university courses aimed at older students.