Algunos factores que inciden en el rendimiento y en la evaluación de los alumnos en las PAAU

The context where the university admissions exams are performed is presented and the main concerns about this exams are outlined and discussed from a statistical point of view. The paper offers an illustration of the use of random coefficient models in the study of educational data. The association between two individual scores (one internal and the other external to the school) and the effect of the school in the external exam is analized by a regression model with random intercept and fixed slope. A variance component model for the analysis of the grading process is also presented. The paper ends with an outline of the main findings and the presentation of some specific proposals to improve and control the equity of the system. Some pedagogic reflections are also included.

The overhang hangover

We revisit the debt overhang question. We first use non-parametric techniques to isolate a panel of countries on the downward sloping section of a debt Laffer curve. In particular, overhang countries are ones where a threshold level of debt is reached in sample, beyond which (initial) debt ends up lowering (subsequent)growth. On average, significantly negative coefficients appear when debt face value reaches 60 percent of GDP or 200 percent of exports, and when its present value reaches 40 percent of GDP or 140 percent of exports. Second, we depart from reduced form growth regressions and perform direct tests of the theory on the thus selected sample of overhang countries. In the spirit of event studies, we ask whether, as overhang level of debt is reached: (i)investment falls precipitously as it should when it becomes optimal to default, (ii) economic policy deteriorates observably, as it should when debt contracts become unable to elicit effort on the part of the debtor, and (iii) the terms of borrowing worsen noticeably, as they should when it becomes optimal for creditors to pre-empt default and exact punitive interest rates. We find a systematic response of investment, particularly when property rights are weakly enforced, some worsening of the policy environment, and a fall in interest rates. This easing of borrowing conditions happens because lending by the private sector virtually disappears in overhang situations, and multilateral agencies step in with concessional rates. Thus, while debt relief is likely to improve economic policy (and especially investment) in overhang countries, it is doubtful that it would ease their terms of borrowing, or the burden of debt.

Killing by lung cancer or by diabetes? The trade-off between smoking and obesity

As the prevalence of smoking has decreased to below 20%, health practitioners interest has shifted towards theprevalence of obesity, and reducing it is one of the major health challenges in decades to come. In this paper westudy the impact that the final product of the anti-smoking campaign, that is, smokers quitting the habit, had onaverage weight in the population. To these ends, we use data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System,a large series of independent representative cross-sectional surveys. We construct a synthetic panel that allows us tocontrol for unobserved heterogeneity and we exploit the exogenous changes in taxes and regulations to instrumentthe endogenous decision to give up the habit of smoking. Our estimates, are very close to estimates issued in the 90sby the US Department of Health, and indicate that a 10% decrease in the incidence of smoking leads to an averageweight increase of 2.2 to 3 pounds, depending on choice of specification. In addition, we find evidence that the effectovershoots in the short run, although a significant part remains even after two years. However, when we split thesample between men and women, we only find a significant effect for men. Finally, the implicit elasticity of quittingsmoking to the probability of becoming obese is calculated at 0.58. This implies that the net benefit from reducingthe incidence of smoking by 1% is positive even though the cost to society is $0.6 billions.

Consumo y convergencia mediática de la prensa local en Cataluña

Los nuevos hábitos de consumo de medios en el marco de la convergencia digital están propiciando un cambio en las estrategias de los medios de comunicación. Mientras unos usuarios siguen prefiriendo la radio, la televisión y la prensa tradicional para informarse otros participan de la experiencia digital en internet (blogs, redes sociales...) y dispositivos móviles, etc. En este panorama es complicado precisar dónde nace y termina el contenido o hasta qué punto es la participación del usuario quien (re) construye la información; así los contenidos mutan y se diluyen en varios soportes. En este contexto, la prensa local también vive las consecuencias del nuevo paradigma y asume los retos del reacomodo del sector ante la nueva realidad. Esta comunicación presenta las conclusiones del estudio cualitativo con entrevistas en profundidad a los responsables de medios locales en Cataluña sobre sus usuarios, contenidos y soportes en el marco de la convergencia digital.

Centres diürns d'atenció a la gent gran: grau de satisfacció dels usuaris i familiars

Estudi descriptiu sobre els centres de dia i centres de serveis per a la gent gran, dos recursos que ofereixen atenció diürna, i sobre la satisfacció que comporta assistir a un o a l’altre. OBJECTIUS. Descriure i comparar dos models d’atenció diürna per a la gent gran, i els graus de satisfacció d’aquells que els utilitzen. MÈTODES. Estudi multicèntric descriptiu, de disseny és transversal. Portat a terme entre els mesos d’abril i juny de 2011, en set centres de serveis i un centre de dia, ha inclòs un total de 296 persones. S’ha fet una valoració del grau de satisfacció d’usuaris i familiars mitjançant una enquesta de disseny propi. RESULTATS. Els centres de dia, que es troben situats en zones urbanes, ofereixen un únic servei (servei d’estada), on el 41,94% de les persones tenen una elevada dependència. Els centres de serveis, que estan situats en zones rurals, ofereixen serveis d’estada, ambulatoris, tallers i atenció a domicili, i el 25,58% de les persones mostra una dependència elevada. El grau de satisfacció en els dos tipus de centres és elevada tant en famílies 87,63%, com en usuaris 96.5% . CONCLUSIÓ. Són dos models que tenen similituds, però ofereixen diferents tipus de serveis. Creats amb més de 15 anys de diferència, és possible que el centre de serveis acabi sent l’evolució natural del centre de dia.

Towards a database on societal impact of Mediterranean floods in the framework of the HYMEX project

The NW Mediterranean region experiences every year heavy rainfall and flash floods that occasionally produce catastrophic damages. Less frequent are floods that affect large regions. Although a large number of databases devoted exclusively to floods or considering all kind of natural hazards do exist, usually they only record catastrophic flood events. This paper deals with the new flood database that is being developed within the framework of HYMEX project. Results are focused on four regions representative of the NW sector of Mediterranean Europe: Catalonia, Spain; the Balearic Islands, Spain; Calabria, Italy; and Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenées and PACA, France. The common available 30-yr period starts in 1981 and ends in 2010. The paper shows the database structure and criteria, the comparison with other flood databases, some statistics on spatial and temporal distribution, and an identification of the most important events. The paper also provides a table that includes the date and affected region of all the catastrophic events identified in the regions of study, in order to make this information available for all audiences.

Effects of differential taxation on factor accumulation and growth

In this paper we try to analyze the role of fiscal policy in fostering a higher participation of the different production factors in the human capital production sector in the long-run. Introducing a tax on physical capital and differentiating both a tax on raw labor wage and a tax on skills or human capital we also attempt to present a way to influence inequality as measured by the skill premium, thus trying to relate the increase in human capital with the decrease in income inequality. We will do that in the context of a non-scale growth model.The model here is capable to alter the shares of private factors devoted to each of the two production sectors, final output and human capital, and affect inequality in a different way according to the different tax changes. The simulation results derived in the paper show how a human capital (skills) tax cut, which could be interpreted as a reduction in progressivity, ends up increasing both the shares of labor and physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and decreasing inequality. Moreover, a raw labor wage tax decrease, which could also be interpreted as an increase in the progressivity of the system, increases the share of labor devoted to the production of final output and increases inequality. Finally, a physical capital tax decrease reduces the share of physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and allows for a lower inequality value. Nevertheless, none of the various types of taxes ends up changing the share of human capital in the knowledge production, which will deserve our future attention

Effects of differential taxation on factor accumulation and growth

In this paper we try to analyze the role of fiscal policy in fostering a higher participation of the different production factors in the human capital production sector in the long-run. Introducing a tax on physical capital and differentiating both a tax on raw labor wage and a tax on skills or human capital we also attempt to present a way to influence inequality as measured by the skill premium, thus trying to relate the increase in human capital with the decrease in income inequality. We will do that in the context of a non-scale growth model.The model here is capable to alter the shares of private factors devoted to each of the two production sectors, final output and human capital, and affect inequality in a different way according to the different tax changes. The simulation results derived in the paper show how a human capital (skills) tax cut, which could be interpreted as a reduction in progressivity, ends up increasing both the shares of labor and physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and decreasing inequality. Moreover, a raw labor wage tax decrease, which could also be interpreted as an increase in the progressivity of the system, increases the share of labor devoted to the production of final output and increases inequality. Finally, a physical capital tax decrease reduces the share of physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and allows for a lower inequality value. Nevertheless, none of the various types of taxes ends up changing the share of human capital in the knowledge production, which will deserve our future attention

Nonlinear Saffman-Taylor instability

We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that the interface between two viscous fluids in a Hele-Shaw cell can be nonlinearly unstable before the Saffman-Taylor linear instability point is reached. We identify the family of exact elastica solutions [Nye et al., Eur. J. Phys. 5, 73 (1984)] as the unstable branch of the corresponding subcritical bifurcation which ends up at a topological singularity defined by interface pinchoff. We devise an experimental procedure to prepare arbitrary initial conditions in a Hele-Shaw cell. This is used to test the proposed bifurcation scenario and quantitatively asses its practical relevance.

Correlations between black holes formed in cosmic string breaking

An analysis of cosmic string breaking with the formation of black holes attached to the ends reveals a remarkable feature: the black holes can be correlated or uncorrelated. We find that, as a consequence, the number-of-states enhancement factor in the action governing the formation of uncorrelated black holes is twice the one for a correlated pair. We argue that when an uncorrelated pair forms at the ends of the string, the physics involved is more analogous to thermal nucleation than to particle-antiparticle creation. Also, we analyze the process of intercommuting strings induced by black hole annihilation and merging. Finally, we discuss the consequences for grand unified strings. The process whereby uncorrelated black holes are formed yields a rate which significantly improves over those previously considered, but still not enough to modify string cosmology. 1995 The American Physical Society.

Bubbles in Kaluza-Klein theories with spacelike or timelike internal dimensions

region to the other. We also present a C-type solution that describes neutral bubbles in uniform acceleration, and we use it to construct an instanton that mediates the breaking of a cosmic string by forming bubbles at its ends. The rate for this process is also calculated. Finally, we argue that a similar solution can be constructed for magnetic bubbles, and that it can be used to describe a semiclassical instability of the two-timing vacuum against production of massless monopole pairs.

First-passage-time noninteger moments for some diffusion and dichotomous processes

We calculate noninteger moments ¿tq¿ of first passage time to trapping, at both ends of an interval (0,L), for some diffusion and dichotomous processes. We find the critical behavior of ¿tq¿, as a function of q, for free processes. We also show that the addition of a potential can destroy criticality.

A new aggregation method for strategic decision making and its application in assignment theory

A new aggregation method for decision making is presented by using induced aggregation operators and the index of maximum and minimum level. Its main advantage is that it can assess complex reordering processes in the aggregation that represent complex attitudinal characters of the decision maker such as psychological or personal factors. A wide range of properties and particular cases of this new approach are studied. A further generalization by using hybrid averages and immediate weights is also presented. The key issue in this approach against the previous model is that we can use the weighted average and the ordered weighted average in the same formulation. Thus, we are able to consider the subjective attitude and the degree of optimism of the decision maker in the decision process. The paper ends with an application in a decision making problem based on the use of the assignment theory.

Real-time monitoring of the silicidation process of tungsten filaments at high temperature used as catalysers for silane decomposition

The scope of this work is the systematic study of the silicidation process affecting tungsten filaments at high temperature (1900ºC) used for silane decomposition in the hot-wire chemical vapour deposition technique (HWCVD). The correlation between the electrical resistance evolution of the filaments, Rfil(t), and the different stages of the their silicidation process is exposed. Said stages correspond to: the rapid formation of two WSi2 fronts at the cold ends of the filaments and their further propagation towards the middle of the filaments; and, regarding the hot central portion of the filaments: a initial stage of silicon dissolution into the tungsten bulk, with a random duration for as-manufactured filaments, followed by the inhomogeneous nucleation of W5Si3 (which is later replaced by WSi2) and its further growth towards the filaments core. An electrical model is used to obtain real-time information about the current status of the filaments silicidation process by simply monitoring their Rfil(t) evolution during the HWCVD process. It is shown that implementing an annealing pre-treatment to the filaments leads to a clearly repetitive trend in the monitored Rfil(t) signatures. The influence of hydrogen dilution of silane on the filaments silicidation process is also discussed.

Análisis de las incoherencias entre texto e imagen en Los Simpson

En los productos audiovisuales, el canal oral y el visual transmiten información simultáneamente. Si la coherencia de sentido entre texto e imagen desaparece en el doblaje, el objetivo de verosimilitud no se satisface. En este trabajo analizo y clasifico las incoherencias texto-imagen y aporto posibles soluciones a este recurrente problema.