Possible solution of some essential zero problems in compositional data analysis

One of the tantalising remaining problems in compositional data analysis lies in how to deal with data sets in which there are components which are essential zeros. By anessential zero we mean a component which is truly zero, not something recorded as zero simply because the experimental design or the measuring instrument has not been sufficiently sensitive to detect a trace of the part. Such essential zeros occur inmany compositional situations, such as household budget patterns, time budgets,palaeontological zonation studies, ecological abundance studies. Devices such as nonzero replacement and amalgamation are almost invariably ad hoc and unsuccessful insuch situations. From consideration of such examples it seems sensible to build up amodel in two stages, the first determining where the zeros will occur and the secondhow the unit available is distributed among the non-zero parts. In this paper we suggest two such models, an independent binomial conditional logistic normal model and a hierarchical dependent binomial conditional logistic normal model. The compositional data in such modelling consist of an incidence matrix and a conditional compositional matrix. Interesting statistical problems arise, such as the question of estimability of parameters, the nature of the computational process for the estimation of both the incidence and compositional parameters caused by the complexity of the subcompositional structure, the formation of meaningful hypotheses, and the devising of suitable testing methodology within a lattice of such essential zero-compositional hypotheses. The methodology is illustrated by application to both simulated and real compositional data

Resource management research in Passive Optical Networks (PON)

Next Generation Access Networks (NGAN) are the new step forward to deliver broadband services and to facilitate the integration of different technologies. It is plausible to assume that, from a technological standpoint, the Future Internet will be composed of long-range high-speed optical networks; a number of wireless networks at the edge; and, in between, several access technologies, among which, the Passive Optical Networks (xPON) are very likely to succeed, due to their simplicity, low-cost, and increased bandwidth. Among the different PON technologies, the Ethernet-PON (EPON) is the most promising alternative to satisfy operator and user needs, due to its cost, flexibility and interoperability with other technologies. One of the most interesting challenges in such technologies relates to the scheduling and allocation of resources in the upstream (shared) channel. The aim of this research project is to study and evaluate current contributions and propose new efficient solutions to address the resource allocation issues in Next Generation EPON (NG-EPON). Key issues in this context are future end-user needs, integrated quality of service (QoS) support and optimized service provisioning for real time and elastic flows. This project will unveil research opportunities, issue recommendations and propose novel mechanisms associated with the convergence within heterogeneous access networks and will thus serve as a basis for long-term research projects in this direction. The project has served as a platform for the generation of new concepts and solutions that were published in national and international conferences, scientific journals and also in book chapter. We expect some more research publications in addition to the ones mentioned to be generated in a few months.

Europe’s experience in countering radicalization: approaches and challenges

For the last decade Europe has perceived itself to be under a constant threat from jihadistinspired terrorism. Terrorist organizations motivated by other ideologies are still active throughout the European Union, but the 2010 Europol annual report clearly states that “Islamist terrorism is still perceived as the biggest threat to most Member States,” and statements from the highest-ranking officials in most European countries confirm this observation (EUROPOL, 2010, p. 6). Authorities base their assessment on the extensive intelligence and investigative activities directed against jihadist networks taking place in virtually every European country. On average, in fact, European authorities arrest some 200 individuals and thwart a handful of plots of jihadist inspiration every year (EUROPOL, 2009). Keeping the global scenario in mind, European authorities deem this dynamic likely to continue in the foreseeable future.

Prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution and ultrasound measures of fetal growth in the INMA Sabadell cohort

Background: Few studies have used longitudinal ultrasound measurements to assess the effect of traffic-related air pollution on fetal growth.Objective: We examined the relationship between exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and aromatic hydrocarbons [benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, and o-xylene (BTEX)] on fetal growth assessed by 1,692 ultrasound measurements among 562 pregnant women from the Sabadell cohort of the Spanish INMA (Environment and Childhood) study.Methods: We used temporally adjusted land-use regression models to estimate exposures to NO2 and BTEX. We fitted mixed-effects models to estimate longitudinal growth curves for femur length (FL), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC), biparietal diameter (BPD), and estimated fetal weight (EFW). Unconditional and conditional SD scores were calculated at 12, 20, and 32 weeks of gestation. Sensitivity analyses were performed considering time–activity patterns during pregnancy.Results: Exposure to BTEX from early pregnancy was negatively associated with growth in BPD during weeks 20–32. None of the other fetal growth parameters were associated with exposure to air pollution during pregnancy. When considering only women who spent 2 hr/day in nonresidential outdoor locations, effect estimates were stronger and statistically significant for the association between NO2 and growth in HC during weeks 12–20 and growth in AC, BPD, and EFW during weeks 20–32.Conclusions: Our results lend some support to an effect of exposure to traffic-related air pollutants from early pregnancy on fetal growth during mid-pregnancy.

Some applications of FISST to wireless communications

This paper aims at illustrating some applications of Finite Random Set (FRS) theory to the design and analysis of wireless communication receivers, and at pointing out similarities and differences between this scenario and that pertaining to multi-target tracking, where the use of FRS has been traditionally advocated. Two case studies are considered, l.e., multiuser detection in a dynamic environment, and multicarrier (OFDM) transmission on a frequency-selective channel. Detector designand performance evaluation are discussed, along with the advantages of importing FRS-based estimation techniques to the context of wireless communications.

Education as a mirror of Spanish society: challenges and policies towards multiple diversity

The ways in which the dominant cultural majority frames the educationalsystem determine perceptions of its own identity and understandings ofthe ‘other.’ In this article I take a political approach, by examining themanagement of cultural diversity within Spanish education policies, treating“education as the mirror of society”. This article analyzes Spanish challengesand policies approaches towards the management of immigrationrelated diversity in education. The main finding is that there is not one approach,but several, due to both the decentralized character of the educationsystem and the multiplicity of diversity that is at stake (i.e. language,religion, culture etc.)

Overcoming the ethical dilemmas of skilled migration? An analysis of international narratives on the “brain drain”

Migration-related issues have, since approximately 2000, been the object of increased attention at the international level. This has led, among other things, to the production of international narratives, which aim both at understanding migration and at proposing policy recommendations on how to address it, with the objective of improving the governance of migration at the global level. But this implies overcoming dilemmas stemming from the diverging interests of states and other actors (like NGOs and the private sector). This article examines the way in which international migration narratives address skilled migration, which is characterised by some of the clearest political trade-offs between stakeholders. It argues that these narratives attempt to speak to all parties and conciliate contradictory arguments about what should be done, in order to discursively overcome policy dilemmas and create a consensus. While this is line with the mandate of international organizations, it depoliticises migration issues.

Some last thoughts on compositional data analysis

One of the disadvantages of old age is that there is more past than future: this,however, may be turned into an advantage if the wealth of experience and, hopefully,wisdom gained in the past can be reflected upon and throw some light on possiblefuture trends. To an extent, then, this talk is necessarily personal, certainly nostalgic,but also self critical and inquisitive about our understanding of the discipline ofstatistics. A number of almost philosophical themes will run through the talk: searchfor appropriate modelling in relation to the real problem envisaged, emphasis onsensible balances between simplicity and complexity, the relative roles of theory andpractice, the nature of communication of inferential ideas to the statistical layman, theinter-related roles of teaching, consultation and research. A list of keywords might be:identification of sample space and its mathematical structure, choices betweentransform and stay, the role of parametric modelling, the role of a sample spacemetric, the underused hypothesis lattice, the nature of compositional change,particularly in relation to the modelling of processes. While the main theme will berelevance to compositional data analysis we shall point to substantial implications forgeneral multivariate analysis arising from experience of the development ofcompositional data analysis…

Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues

We discuss some practical issues related to the use of the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving non-linear stochastic dynamic models with rational expectations. This approach has been applied in models of macroeconomics, financial economics, economic growth, contracttheory, etc. It turns out to be a convenient algorithm, especially when there is a large number of state variables and stochastic shocks in the conditional expectations. We discuss some practical issues having to do with the application of the algorithm, and we discuss a Fortran program for implementing the algorithm that is available through the internet.We discuss these issues in a battery of six examples.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Business cycle measurement with some theory

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specificationof the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use someto identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. Theapproach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. Themethod is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers)in a standard class of models.

Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claimingdisability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between workdisability , which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and healthdisability which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a linkbetween work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the businesscycle and variations in the risk of unemployment over time and across localities, mayplay an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants andinflows to and outflow from that stock. We employ a variety of cross?country andcountry?specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, to testwhether disability benefit claims rise when unemployment is higher, and also toinvestigate the impact of unemployment rates on flows on and off the benefit rolls. Wefind strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an importantexplanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, loweroutflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periodsof above?average unemployment. Although general subjective measures of selfreporteddisability and longstanding illness are also positively associated withunemployment rates, inclusion of self?reported health measures does not eliminate thestatistical relationship between unemployment rates and disability benefit receipt;indeed including general measures of health often strengthens that underlyingrelationship. Intriguingly, we also find some evidence from the United Kingdom and theUnited States that the prevalence of self?reported objective specific indicators ofdisability are often pro?cyclical that is, the incidence of specific forms of disability arepro?cyclical whereas claims for disability benefits given specific health conditions arecounter?cyclical. Overall, the analysis suggests that, for a range of countries and datasets, levels of claims for disability benefits are not simply related to changes in theincidence of health disability in the population and are strongly influenced by prevailingeconomic conditions. We discuss the policy implications of these various findings.

Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among assetreturns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and internationalpoint of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly relatedto inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest ratespredicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign termstructures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflationand exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financialvariables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implicationsof the results are provided.

Manipulation of earnings reports in Spain - some evidence

Accounting regulation is a highly topical issue for listed companies in Europe. From 1 January 2005 all companies listed in the EU member states are required to produce financial reports compliant with international accounting standards. Financial reports will be comparable with each other only if full compliance with the international standards can be ensured. Historically, however, an enduring weakness of the international standard-setting regime has been its inability to enforce compliance with its standards. There is a danger that implementation and compliance will be variable across the adopting countries, and that deeply ingrained national reporting practices will persist. The purpose of this paper is to examine some distinctive elements of Spanish financial reporting practices. Spanish financial reporting by major companies demonstrates a tendency towards quite overt manipulation of the earnings figures. The research reported in the paper firstly identifies four common earnings manipulation practices, and then proceeds to examine their incidence in the financial statements of the IBEX-35 companies over a three year period.