Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Fluid dynamical prediction of changed v1-flow at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Substantial collective flow is observed in collisions between lead nuclei at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) as evidenced by the azimuthal correlations in the transverse momentum distributions of the produced particles. Our calculations indicate that the global v1-flow, which at RHIC peaked at negative rapidities (named third flow component or antiflow), now at LHC is going to turn toward forward rapidities (to the same side and direction as the projectile residue). Potentially this can provide a sensitive barometer to estimate the pressure and transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma. Our calculations also take into account the initial state center-of-mass rapidity fluctuations, and demonstrate that these are crucial for v1 simulations. In order to better study the transverse momentum flow dependence we suggest a new"symmetrized" vS1(pt) function, and we also propose a new method to disentangle global v1 flow from the contribution generated by the random fluctuations in the initial state. This will enhance the possibilities of studying the collective Global v1 flow both at the STAR Beam Energy Scan program and at LHC.

Subjectively adapted high capacity lossless image data hiding based on prediction errors

This article reports on a lossless data hiding scheme for digital images where the data hiding capacity is either determined by minimum acceptable subjective quality or by the demanded capacity. In the proposed method data is hidden within the image prediction errors, where the most well-known prediction algorithms such as the median edge detector (MED), gradient adjacent prediction (GAP) and Jiang prediction are tested for this purpose. In this method, first the histogram of the prediction errors of images are computed and then based on the required capacity or desired image quality, the prediction error values of frequencies larger than this capacity are shifted. The empty space created by such a shift is used for embedding the data. Experimental results show distinct superiority of the image prediction error histogram over the conventional image histogram itself, due to much narrower spectrum of the former over the latter. We have also devised an adaptive method for hiding data, where subjective quality is traded for data hiding capacity. Here the positive and negative error values are chosen such that the sum of their frequencies on the histogram is just above the given capacity or above a certain quality.

What makes one person paranoid and another person anxious? The differential prediction of social anxiety and persecutory ideation in an experimental situation

The study shows that social anxiety and persecutory ideation share many of the same predictive factors. Non-clinical paranoia may be a type of anxious fear. However, perceptual anomalies are a distinct predictor of paranoia. In the context of an individual feeling anxious, the occurrence of odd internal feelings in social situations may lead to delusional ideas through a sense of" things not seeming right". The study illustrates the approach of focusing on experiences such as paranoid thinking rather than diagnoses such as schizophrenia.

Prediction of crude protein and classification of the growth stage of wheat plant samples from NIR spectra

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to analyse the crude protein content of dried and milled samples of wheat and to discriminate samples according to their stage of growth. A calibration set of 72 samples from three growth stages of wheat (tillering, heading and harvest) and a validation set of 28 samples was collected for this purpose. Principal components analysis (PCA) of the calibration set discriminated groups of samples according to the growth stage of the wheat. Based on these differences, a classification procedure (SIMCA) showed a very accurate classification of the validation set samples : all of them were successfully classified in each group using this procedure when both the residual and the leverage were used in the classification criteria. Looking only at the residuals all the samples were also correctly classified except one of tillering stage that was assigned to both tillering and heading stages. Finally, the determination of the crude protein content of these samples was considered in two ways: building up a global model for all the growth stages, and building up local models for each stage, separately. The best prediction results for crude protein were obtained using a global model for samples in the two first growth stages (tillering and heading), and using a local model for the harvest stage samples.

Prediction of rabbit meat and bone weight using measurements and sample cuts

Regression equations predicting dissectable muscle weight in rabbits from external measurements were presented. Bone weight and weight of muscle groups were also carcass predicted. Predictive capacity of external measurements, retail cuts and muscle groups on total muscle, percent muscle, total bone and muscle to bone ratio were studied separately. Measurements on dissected retail cuts should be included in ordcr to obtain good equations for prediction of percent muscle in the carcass. Equations for predicting the muscle to bone ratio using external mcasurcments and data from the dissection of one hind leg were suggested. The equations had generally high coefficients of determination. The coefficient of determination for prediction of dissectable muscle was 0.91, and for percent muscle in the carcass 0.79.

Postharvest quality and chilling injury of plums: benefits of 1-methylcyclopropene

The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP) treatment on the development of chilling injury (CI) symptoms in four plum cultivars and to determine the relationship between the climacteric behavior of the cultivar and its sensitivity to this disorder. Significant differences in ripening pattern were found between the cultivars after long-term storage. Among the climacteric cultivars, ‘Royal Zee’ plums showed a higher ethylene production rate than ‘Linda Rosa and ‘Friar’ cultivars. On the other hand, the ‘Angeleno’ cultivar behaved as a suppressed climacteric type. The development of translucency symptoms was higher in ‘Royal Zee’ than in ‘Linda Rosa’ and ‘Friar’ plums, and was almost absent in the suppressed climacteric cultivar. 1-MCP treatment significantly reduced ethylene production and the percentage of fruit affected by translucency in all climacteric cultivars. This treatment also delayed the ripening of the fruit during shelf life. In contrast, 1-MCP treatment did not affect the quality of ‘Angeleno’ plums. Collectively these results suggest that the development of chilling injury in plums is related to the climacteric behavior of the cultivar and demonstrated the beneficial effects of 1-MCP maintaining plum quality during storage.

On regeneration and collateral sprouting to hind limb digits after sciatic nerve injury in the rat

This study examines the proportions of regenerative and collateral sprouting to the skin after peripheral nerve injury. Methods: In the first experimental paradigm, primary afferent neurones were pre-labelled with Diamidino Yellow (DY), injected in digit 3, followed by sciatic nerve section and repair. After three months of regeneration, digit 3 was re-injected with Fast Blue (FB) to label regernating cells. Fluoro-Gold (FG) was applied to the femoral (FEM) and musculocutaneous (MC) nervers four days later to quantify their contribution to the innveration. In the second experimental paradigm, sciatic nerve was first sectioned and repaired. Three months later, the sciatic was resected, and digit 3 injected with FB. After four more days, FEM and MC were resected and FG injected in all digits. Results: Neurones in dorsal root ganglion (DRG) L5 had a higher rate of correct reinnervation of digit 3 (44-72%) than neurones in DRG L4 (14-44%). Like in control cases, only occasional axons were traced from the FEM and MC. In the second experiment, only occasional labelled neurones appeared. Conclusions: The results indicate differences in the capacity for correct peripheral sensory reinnvervation between segmental levels and that in this model collateral sprouting was practically non-existent compared to regenerative sprouting.

BAPNE method and N eurorehabilitation in patients with severe acquired brain injury

The use of body percussion through BAPNE method in neurorehabilitation offers the possibility of studying the development of motor skills, attention, coordination, memory and social interaction of patients with neurological diseases. The experimental protocol was carried out on 52 patients with severe acquired brain injury. Patients were selected for the cut - off scores in the standard neuropsychologic al tests of sustained attention , divided and alert ; at least one emisoma intact, cut -off scores in the standard for procedural and semantic memory ; eye sight , hearing and speech intact. The first group of patients has supported the protocol BAPNE tougher with the traditional rehabilitation activities . The control group continued to perform exclusively the cognitive and neuromotor rehabilitation according to traditional protocols. At 6 months after administration of the protocol is expected to re-test to assess if present , the maintenance of the effects of rehabilitation obtained. Experimentation is carried out for 10 weeks following the protocol of BAPNE method in the Roboris Foundation of Rome.

Undifferentiated and differentiated PC12 cells protected by huprines against injury induced by hydrogen peroxide

Oxidative stress is implicated in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) plays a central role in the stress. Huprines, a group of potent acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs), have shown a broad cholinergic pharmacological profile. Recently, it has been observed that huprine X (HX) improves cognition in non transgenic middle aged mice and shows a neuroprotective activity (increased synaptophysin expression) in 3xTg-AD mice. Consequently, in the present experiments the potential neuroprotective effect of huprines (HX, HY, HZ) has been analyzed in two different in vitro conditions: undifferentiated and NGF-differentiated PC12 cells. Cells were subjected to oxidative insult (H2O2, 200 µM) and the protective effects of HX, HY and HZ (0.01 µM- 1 µM) were analyzed after a pre-incubation period of 24 and 48 hours. All huprines showed protective effects in both undifferentiated and NGF-differentiated cells, however only in differentiated cells the effect was dependent on cholinergic receptors as atropine (muscarinic antagonist, 0.1 µM) and mecamylamine (nicotinic antagonist, 100 µM) reverted the neuroprotection action of huprines. The decrease in SOD activity observed after oxidative insult was overcome in the presence of huprines and this effect was not mediated by muscarinic or nicotinic receptors. In conclusion, huprines displayed neuroprotective properties as previously observed in in vivo studies. In addition, these effects were mediated by cholinergic receptors only in differentiated cells. However, a non-cholinergic mechanism, probably through an increase in SOD activity, seems to be also involved in the neuroprotective effects of huprines.

Risk Prediction Scores for Recurrence and Progression of Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer: An International Validation in Primary Tumours

Abstract Objective: We aimed to determine the validity of two risk scores for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer in different European settings, in patients with primary tumours. Methods: We included 1,892 patients with primary stage Ta or T1 non-muscle invasive bladder cancer who underwent a transurethral resection in Spain (n = 973), the Netherlands (n = 639), or Denmark (n = 280). We evaluated recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival according to the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO) risk scores for each patient and used the concordance index (c-index) to indicate discriminative ability. Results: The 3 cohorts were comparable according to age and sex, but patients from Denmark had a larger proportion of patients with the high stage and grade at diagnosis (p,0.01). At least one recurrence occurred in 839 (44%) patients and 258 (14%) patients had a progression during a median follow-up of 74 months. Patients from Denmark had the highest 10- year recurrence and progression rates (75% and 24%, respectively), whereas patients from Spain had the lowest rates (34% and 10%, respectively). The EORTC and CUETO risk scores both predicted progression better than recurrence with c-indices ranging from 0.72 to 0.82 while for recurrence, those ranged from 0.55 to 0.61. Conclusion: The EORTC and CUETO risk scores can reasonably predict progression, while prediction of recurrence is more difficult. New prognostic markers are needed to better predict recurrence of tumours in primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients.

Source separation techniques applied to linear prediction

The prediction filters are well known models for signal estimation, in communications, control and many others areas. The classical method for deriving linear prediction coding (LPC) filters is often based on the minimization of a mean square error (MSE). Consequently, second order statistics are only required, but the estimation is only optimal if the residue is independent and identically distributed (iid) Gaussian. In this paper, we derive the ML estimate of the prediction filter. Relationships with robust estimation of auto-regressive (AR) processes, with blind deconvolution and with source separation based on mutual information minimization are then detailed. The algorithm, based on the minimization of a high-order statistics criterion, uses on-line estimation of the residue statistics. Experimental results emphasize on the interest of this approach.

Nonlinear prediction based on score function

The linear prediction coding of speech is based in the assumption that the generation model is autoregresive. In this paper we propose a structure to cope with the nonlinear effects presents in the generation of the speech signal. This structure will consist of two stages, the first one will be a classical linear prediction filter, and the second one will model the residual signal by means of two nonlinearities between a linear filter. The coefficients of this filter are computed by means of a gradient search on the score function. This is done in order to deal with the fact that the probability distribution of the residual signal still is not gaussian. This fact is taken into account when the coefficients are computed by a ML estimate. The algorithm based on the minimization of a high-order statistics criterion, uses on-line estimation of the residue statistics and is based on blind deconvolution of Wiener systems [1]. Improvements in the experimental results with speech signals emphasize on the interest of this approach.

Fluid dynamical prediction of changed v1-flow at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Substantial collective flow is observed in collisions between lead nuclei at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) as evidenced by the azimuthal correlations in the transverse momentum distributions of the produced particles. Our calculations indicate that the global v1-flow, which at RHIC peaked at negative rapidities (named third flow component or antiflow), now at LHC is going to turn toward forward rapidities (to the same side and direction as the projectile residue). Potentially this can provide a sensitive barometer to estimate the pressure and transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma. Our calculations also take into account the initial state center-of-mass rapidity fluctuations, and demonstrate that these are crucial for v1 simulations. In order to better study the transverse momentum flow dependence we suggest a new"symmetrized" vS1(pt) function, and we also propose a new method to disentangle global v1 flow from the contribution generated by the random fluctuations in the initial state. This will enhance the possibilities of studying the collective Global v1 flow both at the STAR Beam Energy Scan program and at LHC.

Estimations of topographically correct regeneration to nerve branches and skin after peripheral nerve injury and repair.

Peripheral nerve injury is typically associated with long-term disturbances in sensory localization, despite nerve repair and regeneration. Here, we investigate the extent of correct reinnervation by back-labeling neuronal soma with fluorescent tracers applied in the target area before and after sciatic nerve injury and repair in the rat. The subpopulations of sensory or motor neurons that had regenerated their axons to either the tibial branch or the skin of the third hindlimb digit were calculated from the number of cell bodies labeled by the first and/or second tracer. Compared to the normal control side, 81% of the sensory and 66% of the motor tibial nerve cells regenerated their axons back to this nerve, while 22% of the afferent cells from the third digit reinnervated this digit. Corresponding percentages based on quantification of the surviving population on the experimental side showed 91%, 87%, and 56%, respectively. The results show that nerve injury followed by nerve repair by epineurial suture results in a high but variable amount of topographically correct regeneration, and that proportionally more neurons regenerate into the correct proximal nerve branch than into the correct innervation territory in the skin