40 resultados para INFER
Resumo:
Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29 PER CENT, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90 PER CENT on Saturdays, 4.29 PER CENT on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45 PER CENT) than for women (0.64 PER CENT) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62 PER CENT, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84 PER CENT, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.
Resumo:
The analysis of the activity of neuronal cultures is considered to be a good proxy of the functional connectivity of in vivo neuronal tissues. Thus, the functional complex network inferred from activity patterns is a promising way to unravel the interplay between structure and functionality of neuronal systems. Here, we monitor the spontaneous self-sustained dynamics in neuronal cultures formed by interconnected aggregates of neurons (clusters). Dynamics is characterized by the fast activation of groups of clusters in sequences termed bursts. The analysis of the time delays between clusters' activations within the bursts allows the reconstruction of the directed functional connectivity of the network. We propose a method to statistically infer this connectivity and analyze the resulting properties of the associated complex networks. Surprisingly enough, in contrast to what has been reported for many biological networks, the clustered neuronal cultures present assortative mixing connectivity values, meaning that there is a preference for clusters to link to other clusters that share similar functional connectivity, as well as a rich-club core, which shapes a"connectivity backbone" in the network. These results point out that the grouping of neurons and the assortative connectivity between clusters are intrinsic survival mechanisms of the culture.
Resumo:
Temporary streams are those water courses that undergo the recurrent cessation of flow or the complete drying of their channel. The structure and composition of biological communities in temporary stream reaches are strongly dependent on the temporal changes of the aquatic habitats determined by the hydrological conditions. Therefore, the structural and functional characteristics of aquatic fauna to assess the ecological quality of a temporary stream reach cannot be used without taking into account the controls imposed by the hydrological regime. This paper develops methods for analysing temporary streams' aquatic regimes, based on the definition of six aquatic states that summarize the transient sets of mesohabitats occurring on a given reach at a particular moment, depending on the hydrological conditions: Hyperrheic, Eurheic, Oligorheic, Arheic, Hyporheic and Edaphic. When the hydrological conditions lead to a change in the aquatic state, the structure and composition of the aquatic community changes according to the new set of available habitats. We used the water discharge records from gauging stations or simulations with rainfall-runoff models to infer the temporal patterns of occurrence of these states in the Aquatic States Frequency Graph we developed. The visual analysis of this graph is complemented by the development of two metrics which describe the permanence of flow and the seasonal predictability of zero flow periods. Finally, a classification of temporary streams in four aquatic regimes in terms of their influence over the development of aquatic life is updated from the existing classifications, with stream aquatic regimes defined as Permanent, Temporary-pools, Temporary-dry and Episodic. While aquatic regimes describe the long-term overall variability of the hydrological conditions of the river section and have been used for many years by hydrologists and ecologists, aquatic states describe the availability of mesohabitats in given periods that determine the presence of different biotic assemblages. This novel concept links hydrological and ecological conditions in a unique way. All these methods were implemented with data from eight temporary streams around the Mediterranean within the MIRAGE project. Their application was a precondition to assessing the ecological quality of these streams.
Resumo:
We present a sample of three large near-relativistic (>50 keV) electron events observed in 2001 by both the ACE and the Ulysses spacecraft, when Ulysses was at high-northern latitudes (>60°) and close to 2 AU. Despite the large latitudinal distance between the two spacecraft, electrons injected near the Sun reached both heliospheric locations. All three events were associated with large solar flares, strong decametric type II radio bursts and accompanied by wide (>212°) and fast (>1400 km s-1) coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We use advanced interplanetary transport simulations and make use of the directional intensities observed in situ by the spacecraft to infer the electron injection profile close to the Sun and the interplanetary transport conditions at both low and high latitudes. For the three selected events, we find similar interplanetary transport conditions at different heliolatitudes for a given event, with values of the mean free path ranging from 0.04 AU to 0.27 AU. We find differences in the injection profiles inferred for each spacecraft. We investigate the role that sector boundaries of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) have on determining the characteristics of the electron injection profiles. Extended injection profiles, associated with coronal shocks, are found if the magnetic footpoints of the spacecraft lay in the same magnetic sector as the associated flare, while intermittent sparse injection episodes appear when the spacecraft footpoints are in the opposite sector or a wrap in the HCS bounded the CME structure.
Resumo:
Genetic tools have greatly aided in tracing the sources and colonization history of introduced species. However, recurrent introductions and repeated shuffling of populations may have blurred some of the genetic signals left by ancient introductions. Styela plicata is a solitary ascidian distributed worldwide. Although its origin remains unclear, this species is believed to have spread worldwide by travelling on ship's hulls. The goals of this study were to infer the genetic structure and global phylogeography of S. plicata and to look for present-day and historical genetic patterns. Two genetic markers were used: a fragment of the mitochondrial gene Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (COI) and a fragment of the nuclear gene Adenine Nucleotide Transporter/ADP-ATP Translocase (ANT). A total of 368 individuals for COI and 315 for ANT were sequenced from 17 locations worldwide. The levels of gene diversity were moderate for COI to high for ANT. The Mediterranean populations showed the least diversity and allelic richness for both markers, while the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans had the highest gene and nucleotide diversities. Network and phylogenetic analyses with COI and ANT revealed two groups of alleles separated by 15 and 4 mutational steps, respectively. The existence of different lineages suggested an ancient population split. However, the geographic distributions of these groups did not show any consistent pattern, indicating different phylogeographic histories for each gene. Genetic divergence was significant for many population-pairs irrespective of the geographic distance among them. Stochastic introduction events are reflected in the uneven distribution of COI and ANT allele frequencies and groups among many populations. Our results confirmed that S. plicata has been present in all studied oceans for a long time, and that recurrent colonization events and occasional shuffling among populations have determined the actual genetic structure of this species.
Resumo:
The genetic impact associated to the Neolithic spread in Europe has been widely debated over the last 20 years. Within this context, ancient DNA studies have provided a more reliable picture by directly analyzing the protagonist populations at different regions in Europe. However, the lack of available data from the original Near Eastern farmers has limited the achieved conclusions, preventing the formulation of continental models of Neolithic expansion. Here we address this issue by presenting mitochondrial DNA data of the original Near-Eastern Neolithic communities with the aim of providing the adequate background for the interpretation of Neolithic genetic data from European samples. Sixty-three skeletons from the Pre Pottery Neolithic B (PPNB) sites of Tell Halula, Tell Ramad and Dja'de El Mughara dating between 8,700-6,600 cal. B.C. were analyzed, and 15 validated mitochondrial DNA profiles were recovered. In order to estimate the demographic contribution of the first farmers to both Central European and Western Mediterranean Neolithic cultures, haplotype and haplogroup diversities in the PPNB sample were compared using phylogeographic and population genetic analyses to available ancient DNA data from human remains belonging to the Linearbandkeramik-Alföldi Vonaldiszes Kerámia and Cardial/Epicardial cultures. We also searched for possible signatures of the original Neolithic expansion over the modern Near Eastern and South European genetic pools, and tried to infer possible routes of expansion by comparing the obtained results to a database of 60 modern populations from both regions. Comparisons performed among the 3 ancient datasets allowed us to identify K and N-derived mitochondrial DNA haplogroups as potential markers of the Neolithic expansion, whose genetic signature would have reached both the Iberian coasts and the Central European plain. Moreover, the observed genetic affinities between the PPNB samples and the modern populations of Cyprus and Crete seem to suggest that the Neolithic was first introduced into Europe through pioneer seafaring colonization.
Resumo:
Correct species identification is a crucial issue in systematics with key implications for prioritising conservation effort. However, it can be particularly challenging in recently diverged species due to their strong similarity and relatedness. In such cases, species identification requires multiple and integrative approaches. In this study we used multiple criteria, namely plumage colouration, biometric measurements, geometric morphometrics, stable isotopes analysis (SIA) and genetics (mtDNA), to identify the species of 107 bycatch birds from two closely related seabird species, the Balearic (Puffinus mauretanicus) and Yelkouan (P. yelkouan) shearwaters. Biometric measurements, stable isotopes and genetic data produced two stable clusters of bycatch birds matching the two study species, as indicated by reference birds of known origin. Geometric morphometrics was excluded as a species identification criterion since the two clusters were not stable. The combination of plumage colouration, linear biometrics, stable isotope and genetic criteria was crucial to infer the species of 103 of the bycatch specimens. In the present study, particularly SIA emerged as a powerful criterion for species identification, but temporal stability of the isotopic values is critical for this purpose. Indeed, we found some variability in stable isotope values over the years within each species, but species differences explained most of the variance in the isotopic data. Yet this result pinpoints the importance of examining sources of variability in the isotopic data in a case-by-case basis prior to the cross-application of the SIA approach to other species. Our findings illustrate how the integration of several methodological approaches can help to correctly identify individuals from recently diverged species, as each criterion measures different biological phenomena and species divergence is not expressed simultaneously in all biological traits.
Resumo:
As part of the Affective Computing research field, the development of automatic affective recognition systems can enhance human-computer interactions by allowing the creation of interfaces that react to the user's emotional state. To that end, this Master Thesis brings affect recognition to nowadays most used human computer interface, mobile devices, by developing a facial expression recognition system able to perform detection under the difficult conditions of viewing angle and illumination that entails the interaction with a mobile device. Moreover, this Master Thesis proposes to combine emotional features detected from expression with contextual information of the current situation, to infer a complex and extensive emotional state of the user. Thus, a cognitive computational model of emotion is defined that provides a multicomponential affective state of the user through the integration of the detected emotional features into appraisal processes. In order to account for individual differences in the emotional experience, these processes can be adapted to the culture and personality of the user.
Resumo:
Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in skin and bone of South American sea lions from Brazil and Uruguay were analysed to test the hypothesis that trophic overlap between the sexes is lower during the pre-breeding season than throughout the rest of the year. The isotopic values of skin and bone were used to infer the trophic relationships between the sexes during the pre-breeding period and year round, respectively. Prey species were also analysed to establish a baseline necessary for interpreting the stable isotope ratios of skin and bone. Standard ellipse areas, estimated using Bayesian inference in the SIBER routine of the SIAR package in R, suggested that males and females used a wide diversity of foraging strategies throughout the year and that no differences existed between the sexes. However, the diversity of foraging strategies was largely reduced during the pre-breeding period, with all the individuals of each sex adopting similar strategies, but with the two sexes differing considerably in stable isotope values and the ellipse areas of males and females not overlapping at all. Nevertheless, the results revealed a general increase in the consumption of pelagic prey by both sexes during the pre-breeding period. The progressive crowding of individuals in the areas surrounding the breeding rookeries during the pre-breeding period could lead to an increase in the local population density, which could explain the above reported changes.
Resumo:
Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in north-eastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future stream flows. The largest reduction (22-48% for 2076-2100) of stream flows is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (22-32% for 2076-2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in stream flow, 50% and 34%, respectively (2076-2100). Thus, ecological flows might be noticeably impacted by climate change in the catchments, especially in the headwaters of those wet catchments.