Informe Horizon : edición iberoamericana 2010

La serie de Informes Horizon es el resultado más tangible del Proyecto Horizon del New Media Consortium, un esfuerzo de investigación cualitativa iniciado en 2002, que identifica y describe las tecnologías emergentes con mayor potencial de impacto en la enseñanza, el aprendizaje, la investigación y la expresión creativa en el ámbito educativo global. Este volumen, elInforme Horizon 2010: Edición Iberoamericana, centra la investigación en los países de la región Iberoamericana (incluyendo a toda Latinoamérica, España y Portugal) y en el ámbito de la educación superior. ElInforme Horizon 2010: Edición Iberoamericana es el primero que ofrece esta contextualización regional y ha sido producido por el NMC y el eLearn Center de laUniversitat Oberta de Catalunya.

Informe Horizon : edició iberoamericana 2010

La sèrie d'informes Horizon és el resultat més tangible del Projecte Horizon del New Media Consortium, un esforç de recerca qualitativa iniciat el 2002 que identifica i descriu les tecnologies emergents amb més potencial d'impacte en l'ensenyament, l'aprenentatge, la recerca i la expressió creativa en l'àmbit educatiu global. Aquest volum, l'Informe Horizon 2010: Edició Iberoamericana, se centra en la investigació en els països de la regió Iberoamericana (incloent-hi tota Llatinoamèrica, Espanya i Portugal) i en l'àmbit de l'educació superior. L'Informe Horizon 2010: Edició Iberoamericana és el primer que ofereix aquesta contextualització regional i ha estat produït per l'NMC i el eLearn Center de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya.

The Role of Information in Contemporary Migration. More Sources but Less Informed

La migració internacional contemporània és integrada en un procés d'interconnexió global definit per les revolucions del transport i de les tecnologies de la informació i la comunicació. Una de les conseqüències d'aquesta interconnexió global és que les persones migrants tenen més capacitat per a processar informació tant abans com després de marxar. Aquests canvis podrien tenir implicacions inesperades per a la migració contemporània pel que fa a la capacitat de les persones migrants per a prendre decisions més informades, la reducció de la incertesa en contextos migratoris, el desdibuixament del concepte de distància o la decisió d'emigrar cap a llocs més llunyans. Aquesta recerca és important, ja que la manca de coneixement sobre aquesta qüestió podria contribuir a fer augmentar la distància entre els objectius de les polítiques de migració i els seus resultats. El paper que tenen els agents de la informació en els contextos migratoris també podria canviar. En aquest escenari, perquè les polítiques de migració siguin més efectives, s'haurà de tenir en compte la major capacitat de la població migrant de processar la informació i les fonts d'informació en què es confia. Aquest article demostra que l'equació més informació equival a més ben informat no es compleix sempre. Fins i tot en l'era de la informació, les fonts no fiables, les expectatives falses, la sobreinformació i els rumors encara són presents en els contextos migratoris. Tanmateix, defensem l'argument que aquests efectes no volguts es podrien reduir complint quatre requisits de la informació fiable: que sigui exhaustiva, que sigui rellevant, que s'hi confiï i que sigui actualitzada.

Determinants of Spanish firms' life cycle and job

This paper examines the role of human capital, individual entrepreneurial traits and the business environment on firms' life cycle and on job creation in Spain. For this purpose, we have constructed a pseudo-panel, by using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor survey over the period 2001-2008. We have found that the creation, maturity and survival of firms were aided by the availability of bank credit and the large immigration inflows that Spain received over this period. However, of these two factors, only bank credit had a positive effect on the creation of jobs and on improving expectations of job expansion. The relatively high levels of youth unemployment experienced even before the crises of 2008 hurt the firm's chances of maturity and survival. The results also suggested that the gender gap in entrepreneurial activities had narrowed. In relative terms, women with higher levels of education were more likely to create mature firms than men. Based on the empirical findings and those of related literature, the paper offers policy recommendations to foster a sustainable entrepreneurial sector capable of contributing to the recovery of the Spanish economy.

Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Is ENP good news for the transfer of environmental norms? Incentives and socialization for Eastern neighbours

The launching of the European Neighbourhood Policy has created some expectations. Cooperation between the EU and its partners is expected to get deeper, to the point that neighbouring countries have been promised to share “everything but institutions” with the EU. Moreover, cooperation is also expected to be broader, as it has been presented as including more and more issue areas. In other words, the ENP has the vocation of being a universal instrument to promote the transfer of EU norms. This paper focuses on one single issue area, the environment, and one group of ENP partners, the Western Newly Independent States and the South Caucasus, to revise to what extent neighbourhood policy can provide the mechanisms to encourage rule transfer. Are incentives and disincentives powerful enough? Can the ENP promote the socialization of neighbours into EU environmental norms?

Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues

We discuss some practical issues related to the use of the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving non-linear stochastic dynamic models with rational expectations. This approach has been applied in models of macroeconomics, financial economics, economic growth, contracttheory, etc. It turns out to be a convenient algorithm, especially when there is a large number of state variables and stochastic shocks in the conditional expectations. We discuss some practical issues having to do with the application of the algorithm, and we discuss a Fortran program for implementing the algorithm that is available through the internet.We discuss these issues in a battery of six examples.

First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.

A model of shadow banking

We present a model of shadow banking in which financial intermediaries originate and trade loans, assemble these loans into diversified portfolios, and then finance these portfolios externally with riskless debt. In this model: i) outside investor wealth drives the demand for riskless debt and indirectly for securitization, ii) intermediary assets and leverage move together as in Adrian and Shin (2010), and iii) intermediaries increase their exposure to systematic risk as they reduce their idiosyncratic risk through diversification, as in Acharya, Schnabl, and Suarez (2010). Under rational expectations, the shadow banking system is stable and improves welfare. When investors and intermediaries neglect tail risks, however, the expansion of risky lending and the concentration of risks in the intermediaries create financial fragility and fluctuations in liquidity over time.

Approximate knowledge of rationality and correlated equilibria

We extend Aumann's theorem [Aumann 1987], deriving correlated equilibria as a consequence of common priors and common knowledge of rationality, by explicitly allowing for non-rational behavior. Wereplace the assumption of common knowledge of rationality with a substantially weaker one, joint p-belief of rationality, where agents believe the other agents are rational with probability p or more. We show that behavior in this case constitutes a kind of correlated equilibrium satisfying certain p-belief constraints, and that it varies continuously in the parameters p and, for p sufficiently close to one,with high probability is supported on strategies that survive the iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies. Finally, we extend the analysis to characterizing rational expectations of interimtypes, to games of incomplete information, as well as to the case of non-common priors.

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

On the impact of leverage constraints on asset prices and trading volume

Researchers have used stylized facts on asset prices and trading volumein stock markets (in particular, the mean reversion of asset returnsand the correlations between trading volume, price changes and pricelevels) to support theories where agents are not rational expected utilitymaximizers. This paper shows that this empirical evidence is in factconsistent with a standard infite horizon perfect information expectedutility economy where some agents face leverage constraints similar tothose found in todays financial markets. In addition, and in sharpcontrast to the theories above, we explain some qualitative differencesthat are observed in the price-volume relation on stock and on futuresmarkets. We consider a continuous-time economy where agents maximize theintegral of their discounted utility from consumption under both budgetand leverage con-straints. Building on the work by Vila and Zariphopoulou(1997), we find a closed form solution, up to a negative constant, for theequilibrium prices and demands in the region of the state space where theconstraint is non-binding. We show that, at the equilibrium, stock holdingsvolatility as well as its ratio to stock price volatility are increasingfunctions of the stock price and interpret this finding in terms of theprice-volume relation.

On the cultural transmission of corruption

We provide a cultural explanation to the phenomenon of corruption in the framework of an overlapping generations model with intergenerational transmissionof values. We show that the economy has two steady states with different levels of corruption. The driving force in the equilibrium selection process is the education effort exerted by parents which depends on the distribution of ethics in the population and on expectations about future policies. We propose some policy interventions which via parents' efforts have long-lasting effects on corruption and show the success of intensive education campaigns. Educating the young is a key element in reducing corruption successfully.

Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.