Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Lower incisor dentoalveolar compensation and symphysis dimensions among Class I and III malocclusion patients with different facial vertical skeletal patterns

Objective: To compare lower incisor dentoalveolar compensation and mandible symphysis morphology among Class I and Class III malocclusion patients with different facial vertical skeletal patterns. Materials and Methods: Lower incisor extrusion and inclination, as well as buccal (LA) and lingual (LP) cortex depth, and mandibular symphysis height (LH) were measured in 107 lateral cephalometric x-rays of adult patients without prior orthodontic treatment. In addition, malocclusion type (Class I or III) and facial vertical skeletal pattern were considered. Through a principal component analysis (PCA) related variables were reduced. Simple regression equation and multivariate analyses of variance were also used. Results: Incisor mandibular plane angle (P < .001) and extrusion (P  =  .03) values showed significant differences between the sagittal malocclusion groups. Variations in the mandibular plane have a negative correlation with LA (Class I P  =  .03 and Class III P  =  .01) and a positive correlation with LH (Class I P  =  .01 and Class III P  =  .02) in both groups. Within the Class III group, there was a negative correlation between the mandibular plane and LP (P  =  .02). PCA showed that the tendency toward a long face causes the symphysis to elongate and narrow. In Class III, alveolar narrowing is also found in normal faces. Conclusions: Vertical facial pattern is a significant factor in mandibular symphysis alveolar morphology and lower incisor positioning, both for Class I and Class III patients. Short-faced Class III patients have a widened alveolar bone. However, for long-faced and normal-faced Class III, natural compensation elongates the symphysis and influences lower incisor position.

Vacancy-assisted domain-growth in asymmetric binary alloys: A Monte Carlo Study

A Monte Carlo simulation study of the vacancy-assisted domain growth in asymmetric binary alloys is presented. The system is modeled using a three-state ABV Hamiltonian which includes an asymmetry term. Our simulated system is a stoichiometric two-dimensional binary alloy with a single vacancy which evolves according to the vacancy-atom exchange mechanism. We obtain that, compared to the symmetric case, the ordering process slows down dramatically. Concerning the asymptotic behavior it is algebraic and characterized by the Allen-Cahn growth exponent x51/2. The late stages of the evolution are preceded by a transient regime strongly affected by both the temperature and the degree of asymmetry of the alloy. The results are discussed and compared to those obtained for the symmetric case.