Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Perception of acceleration in motion-in-depth with only monocular and both monocular and binocular information

Observers are often required to adjust actions with objects that change their speed. However, no evidence for a direct sense of acceleration has been found so far. Instead, observers seem to detect changes in velocity within a temporal window when confronted with motion in the frontal plane (2D motion). Furthermore, recent studies suggest that motion-in-depth is detected by tracking changes of position in depth. Therefore, in order to sense acceleration in depth a kind of second-order computation would have to be carried out by the visual system. In two experiments, we show that observers misperceive acceleration of head-on approaches at least within the ranges we used [600-800 ms] resulting in an overestimation of arrival time. Regardless of the viewing condition (only monocular or monocular and binocular), the response pattern conformed to a constant velocity strategy. However, when binocular information was available, overestimation was highly reduced.

Moral Hazard in Repeated Procurement of Services

This paper analyzes repeated procurement of services as a four-stage game divided into two periods. In each period there is (1) a contest stage à la Tullock in which the principal selects an agent and (2) a service stage in which the selected agent provides a service. Since this service effort is non-verifiable, the principal faces a moral hazard problem at the service stages. This work considers how the principal should design the period-two contest to mitigate the moral hazard problem in the period-one service stage and to maximize total service and contest efforts. It is shown that the principal must take account of the agent's past service effort in the period-two contest success function. The results indicate that the optimal way to introduce this `bias' is to choose a certain degree of complementarity between past service and current contest efforts. This result shows that contests with `additive bias' (`multiplicative bias') are optimal in incentive problems when effort cost is low (high). Furthermore, it is shown that the severity of the moral hazard problem increases with the cost of service effort (compared to the cost of contest effort) and the number of agents. Finally, the results are extended to more general contest success functions. JEL classification: C72; D82 Key words: Biased contests; Moral Hazard; Repeated Game; Incentives.

Human Capital Questionnaire (PHCQ): Assessment of European nurses' perception as indicators of human capital quality

Healthcare accreditation models generally include indicators related to healthcare employees' perceptions (e.g. satisfaction, career development, and health safety). During the accreditation process, organizations are asked to demonstrate the methods with which assessments are made. However, none of the models provide standardized systems for the assessment of employees. In this study, we analyzed the psychometric properties of an instrument for the assessment of nurses' perceptions as indicators of human capital quality in healthcare organizations. The Human Capital Questionnaire was applied to a sample of 902 nurses in four European countries (Spain, Portugal, Poland, and the UK). Exploratory factor analysis identified six factors: satisfaction with leadership, identification and commitment, satisfaction with participation, staff well-being, career development opportunities, and motivation. The results showed the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, which when applied to healthcare organizations, provide a better understanding of nurses' perceptions, and is a parsimonious instrument for assessment and organizational accreditation. From a practical point of view, improving the quality of human capital, by analyzing nurses and other healthcare employees' perceptions, is related to workforce empowerment.

Use and perception of urban green spaces in Barcelona

Background: Although the mechanisms are not well understood yet, evidence exists of the benefits of urban green spaces for human health. As a consequence, one of the concerns of public health interventions must be to promote the use of urban green spaces within cities. Aims: This study aims to explore the citizens’ purposes of use of urban green spaces as well as the elements related to the characteristics of these places that condition their use. Methods: In-depth interviews were conducted with non-hospitalised people living in different areas of Barcelona, with different socioeconomic status and different residential distance to urban green spaces (n = 20). Thematic content analysis of the qualitative data was performed. Results: Physical pursuits and attention restoration were identified as prominent purposes of use of urban green spaces. The natural features of urban green spaces were identified as the most relevant determiners for the use of these places. Conclusions: To promote the use of urban green spaces, qualitative findings from this study suggest that purpose-built places should be provided. Moreover, natural features of urban green spaces must be particularly taken into account when designing and maintaining them.

Local perception and use of the multifunctionality of water tanks in two villages of Tamil Nadu, South India

Using data from free listings and a survey in two villages of Tamil Nadu, India, we discuss local perceptions and uses of water tanks, a traditional irrigation infrastructure. We hypothesize that both farmers and nonfarmers perceive and use water tanks for purposes other than irrigation. We found that informants recognized the importance of water tanks for irrigation, but also acknowledged other socioeconomic uses and ecological functions. Marginal sectors (i.e., Scheduled Castes) use tank resources in more diverse ways than other sectors of the population. Findings are relevant for development. International organizations working on the revival of water tanks aim to transfer water management to farmers for the purpose of irrigation. By recognizing that tanks benefit people other than farmers and in ways other than providing irrigation water, organizations working on tank rejuvenation could achieve a more equitable management of tank resources.

Confirmatory factor analysis of an inventory of perception of insecurity and fear of crime

This paper focuses on the study of the factorial structure of an inventory to estimate the subjective perception of insecurity and fear of crime. Made from the review of the literature on the subject and the results obtained in previous works, this factor structure shows that this attitude towards insecurity and fear of crime is identified through a number of latent factors which are schematically summarized in (a) personal safety, (b) the perception of personal and social control, (c) the presence of threatening people or situations, (d) the processes of identity and space appropriation, (e) satisfaction with the environment, and (f) the environmental and the use of space. Such factors are relevant dimensions to analyze the phenomenon. Method: A sample of 571 participants in a neighborhood of Barcelona was evaluated with the proposed inventory, which yielded data from the distributions of all the items provided. The administration was conducted by researchers specially trained for it and the results were analyzed by using standard procedures in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) from the hypothesized theoretical structure. The analysis was performed by decatypes according to the different response scales prepared in the inventory and their ordinal nature, and by estimating the polychoric correlation coefficients. The results show an acceptable fit of the proposed model, an appropriate behavior of the residuals and statistically significant estimates of the factor loadings. This would indicate the goodness of the proposed factor structure.

New technologies and nursing: use and perception of primary healthcare nurses about electronic health record in Catalonia, Spain

This study was aimed to analyze and assess the use and perception of electronic health records (EHRs) by nurses. The study sample included 113 nurses from different shifts of primary health facilities in Catalonia, Spain, devoted to adult as well as pediatric outpatients using EHRs throughout the year 2010. A majority of the sample (87.5%) were women and 12.5% were men. The average age was 44.27 years and the average time working in primary healthcare was 47.15 months. A majority (80.4%) received specific training on the use of the EHR and 19.6% did not. The use of the application required side technical support (mean: 3.42) and it is considered necessary to learn more about the performance of the application (mean: 3.50). The relationship between the average ratings that nurses have about the EHR and age shows that there is no statistically significant linear relationship (r = - 0.002, p-value = 0.984). As to how long they have used the EHRs, there are significant differences (r= -0.304, p-value = 0.00), so the more time the nurse takes using the EHR, the greater degree of satisfaction is shown. In addition, there are significant differences between nurses" perceptions regarding the EHR and gender (t = - 0.421, p-value = 0.675). Nurses assessed as positive the contribution of the EHRs in their nursing care day work (average score: 2.55/5). Considering that the usability of the EHR device is assessed as satisfactory, the results of the perception of nurses show that we must also take into account the training and emphasize the need for a side technical support in the implementation process of the EHR. Doing so, the positive perception that nurses have in regard to information and communication technology in general and with respect to the EHR in particular may be increased.

New technologies and nursing: use and perception of primary healthcare nurses about electronic health record in Catalonia, Spain

This study was aimed to analyze and assess the use and perception of electronic health records (EHRs) by nurses. The study sample included 113 nurses from different shifts of primary health facilities in Catalonia, Spain, devoted to adult as well as pediatric outpatients using EHRs throughout the year 2010. A majority of the sample (87.5%) were women and 12.5% were men. The average age was 44.27 years and the average time working in primary healthcare was 47.15 months. A majority (80.4%) received specific training on the use of the EHR and 19.6% did not. The use of the application required side technical support (mean: 3.42) and it is considered necessary to learn more about the performance of the application (mean: 3.50). The relationship between the average ratings that nurses have about the EHR and age shows that there is no statistically significant linear relationship (r = - 0.002, p-value = 0.984). As to how long they have used the EHRs, there are significant differences (r= -0.304, p-value = 0.00), so the more time the nurse takes using the EHR, the greater degree of satisfaction is shown. In addition, there are significant differences between nurses" perceptions regarding the EHR and gender (t = - 0.421, p-value = 0.675). Nurses assessed as positive the contribution of the EHRs in their nursing care day work (average score: 2.55/5). Considering that the usability of the EHR device is assessed as satisfactory, the results of the perception of nurses show that we must also take into account the training and emphasize the need for a side technical support in the implementation process of the EHR. Doing so, the positive perception that nurses have in regard to information and communication technology in general and with respect to the EHR in particular may be increased.

Identidad, percepción de vitalidad etnolingüística y comunicación intergrupal en Cataluña: An identity and ethnolinguistic perception vitality study in Catalonia

Catalan has drawn considerable attention given its impressive institutional support and increased usage since the restoration of the Generalitat of Catalonia. We report a study on 112 Catalan-speaking students who were administered the"subjective vitality questionnaire". Results show (and these are compared with reports 20 years ago) that it continues to gain momentum and status, even with the International stature of Spanish. The theoretical and pragmatic significance of these findings are discussed in terms of vitality"s role in shaping Language choices (Catalan vs. Castilian) in everyday communication as well as the societal level in forging Language policies for communicating in Catalan in business, political, educational, and media arenas

The role of different factors related to social impact of heavy events: considerations about the intensity thresholds in densely populated areas

In the assessment of social impact caused by meteorological events, factors of different natures need to be considered. Not only does hazard itself determine the impact that a severe weather event has on society, but also other features related to vulnerability and exposure. The requests of data related to insurance claims received in meteorological services proved to be a good indicator of the social impact that a weather event causes, according to studies carried out by the Social Impact Research Group, created within the framework of the MEDEX project. Taking these requests as proxy data, diverse aspects connected to the impact of heavy rain events have been studied. The rainfall intensity, in conjunction with the population density, has established itself as one of the key factors in social impact studies. One of the conclusions we obtained is that various thresholds of rainfall should be applied for areas of varying populations. In this study, the role of rainfall intensity has been analysed for a highly populated urban area like Barcelona. A period without significant population changes has been selected for the study to minimise the effects linked to vulnerability and exposure modifications. First, correlations between rainfall recorded in different time intervals and requests were carried out. Afterwards, a method to include the intensity factor in the social impact index was suggested based on return periods given by intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves.

Risk perception and stages of smoking acquisition = Percepción de riesgo y etapas de iniciación en el consumo de tabaco

The purpose of this descriptive survey was to investigate the risk perceptions of smoking in a sample of 1,510 Spanish adolescents(49.1% males; mean age = 14.03; SD = 1.28). In addition, the present research categorised adolescents into one of the fourstages of smoking acquisition, as described by the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TMC): Precontemplation (notthinking about trying smoking in the next 6 months), Contemplation (thinking about trying smoking in the next 6 months), Preparation (thinking about starting smoking in the next 30 days) and Action (smokers), by gender and age. The results showed that age and risk perceptions are important variables in the progression through the stages of change towards regular tobacco consumption (Action stage). These results clearly demonstrate the importance of starting antismoking campaigns at an early age to prevent smoking acquisition or the thought of starting in the near future. These findings also highlight the need to continuously remind adolescents about the negative consequences of smoking

Un estudio transversal sobre la percepción de la vitalidad etnolingüística en jóvenes y adultos de Catalunya = A cross-sectional study on ethnolinguistic vitality perception in young and adulthood people from Catalonia

El estudio utiliza un diseño transversal en el campo de la percepción de la vitalidad etnolingüística. Es el primero que compara la percepción de la vitalidad etnolingüística, así como los factores asociados, entre adultos jóvenes y adultos, en relación con los grupos castellanohablantes y catalanohablantes de la Comunidad Autónoma de Cataluña. Para ello, se aplicó el 'Cuestionario de vitalidad etnolingüística subjetiva' (CVS) a una muestra de 527 participantes, 268 jóvenes y 259 adultos, de los cuales se seleccionó una submuestra de individuos que tenían el catalán como lengua materna y se identificaban como catalanes (n=301). En ambas muestras se aduce una tendencia a descriminar favorablemente la vitalidad percibida por el grupo catalán, aspecto que se acentúa significativa en el grupo de jóvenes estudiados en relación al grupo de edad de los adultos. Se discuten los resultados según las repercusiones teóricas y pragmáticas de los estudios realizados en el ámbito de la comunicación intergrupal