Característiques psicosocials i judicials dels menors implicats en denúncies d’abús sexual: ent casos valorats a l’equip d’assessorament tècnic penal de Barcelona

Característiques psicosocials i judicials dels menors víctimes d’abús sexual Els delictes contra la llibertat sexual a la infància són un greu problema social, atesa l’especial vulnerabilitat dels menors i els efectes que el delicte pot suposar en el seu desenvolupament. En el cas dels menors que arriben al sistema judicial, aquesta vulnerabilitat augmenta pel possible efecte de la victimització secundària. Aquesta recerca parteix de la necessitat de conèixer de manera objectiva les característiques dels menors presumptes víctimes d’abús sexual derivats a l’Equip d’Assessorament Tècnic Penal de Barcelona, atès que, si bé hi ha múltiples estudis descriptius amb aquest tipus de població en altres territoris nacionals o en altres països, mai no s’havia realitzat un estudi d’aquestes característiques en el servei de l’EATP. En aquest estudi es van analitzar les dades de 100 menors presumptes víctimes de delictes contra la llibertat sexual, denunciats a la província de Barcelona i derivats al nostre servei per demanda judicial durant un període d’un any. Les principals variables analitzades es van agrupar en les àrees següents: antecedents del delicte (personals i sociofamiliars), variables relacionades amb el delicte (variables judicials, del presumpte agressor i de la intervenció del nostre servei) i conseqüències judicials, personals i sociofamiliars del delicte. Els resultats de l’estudi destaquen que la majoria dels menors són nascuts a Catalunya, tenen més de nou anys i les tres quartes parts són nenes. La meitat de les famílies tenen un perfil tradicional i l’altra meitat són monoparentals o reconstituïdes; es valora un estil educatiu adequat en la majoria dels casos. Es copsa una escassa presència d’antecedents familiars significatius. En els menors predominen els trets de personalitat de submissió, conformisme i introversió, i presenten una escassa psicopatologia prèvia. Predominen els abusos sexuals crònics realitzats per una persona de l’entorn familiar del menor. En general, els testimonis dels menors sobre l’abús resulten globalment creïbles, i és molt baixa la proporció dels testimonis no creïbles. Les principals seqüeles psicològiques copsades en els menors són la simptomatologia ansiosa i posttraumàtica, i hi predominen també els sentiments de rebuig envers l’agressor.

Características psicosociales y judiciales de los menores implicados en denuncias de abuso sexual: cien casos valorados por el equipo de asesoramiento técnico penal de Barcelona

Características psicosociales y judiciales de los menores víctimas de abuso sexual El objetivo es conocer las características psicológicas, sociodemográficas y judiciales de los menores que denuncian delitos contra la libertad sexual en la provincia de Barcelona. La muestra está formada por 100 menores presuntas víctimas de delitos contra la libertad sexual denunciados en la provincia de Barcelona y atendidos por el Equipo de Asesoramiento Penal a la instancia judicial.

Caracterització de les activitats anticolinesteràsica, antiagregant i neuroprotectora dels compostos duals heterodímers Hup7TH i Hup7TCl

L’interès per obtenir nous compostos eficaços en el tractament de la MA ha conduit a la síntesi d’una nova família d’IAChE de lloc d’unió dual (lloc catalític i perifèric). S’han determinat les IC50 de les formes racèmiques, dextrògires i levògires dels heterodímers Hup7TCl i Hup7TH per l’AChE humana recombinant i la BChE humana, mostrant totes elles una alta afinitat pels dos enzims. Paral•lelament, s’ha estudiat l’efecte d’aquests compostos en l’agregació amiloidogènica de la PrP106-126 induïda per AChE bovina, i tots ells han inhibit de forma significativa aquest procés. Finalment, s’han realitzat experiments de neuroprotecció amb els mateixos fàrmacs davant de privació sèrica en cèl•lules SH-SY5Y, obtenint-se un augment de la viabilitat cel•lular en el cas del compost racèmic (±)Hup7TCl.

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

How much risk is mitigated by LTC Insurance? A case study of the public system in Spain

We present a methodology that allows to calculate the impact of a given Long-Term Care (LTC) insurance protection system on the risk of incurring extremely large individual lifetime costs. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study. According to our risk measure, the current Spanish public LTC system mitigates individual risk by more than 30% compared to the situation where no public protection were available. We show that our method can be used to compare risk reduction of alternative LTC insurance plans.

Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

Optimal coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts in labor Markets

We consider a market where firms hire workers to run their projects and such projects differ in profitability. At any period, each firm needs two workers to successfully run its project: a junior agent, with no specific skills, and a senior worker, whose effort is not verifiable. Senior workers differ in ability and their competence is revealed after they have worked as juniors in the market. We study the length of the contractual relationships between firms and workers in an environment where the matching between firms and workers is the result of market interaction. We show that, despite in a one-firm-one-worker set-up long-term contracts are the optimal choice for firms, market forces often induce firms to use short-term contracts. Unless the market only consists of firms with very profitable projects, firms operating highly profitable projects offer short-term contracts to ensure the service of high-ability workers and those with less lucrative projects also use short-term contracts to save on the junior workers' wage. Intermediate firms may (or may not) hire workers through long-term contracts.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Maluc flotant

Estudi descriptiu retrospectiu dels pacients que han ingressat a l’Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta durant un període de 10 anys. Es defineix el tipus de pacient i les característiques de les fractures composen el “maluc flotant”. Es descriu el maneig del malalt i el tractament que s’ha realitzat en pacients amb fractura acetabular i pèlvica especificant la seqüencia i el tipus de síntesi utilitzada.

Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures

This paper examines why a financial entity’s solvency capital estimation might be underestimated if the total amount required is obtained directly from a risk measurement. Using Monte Carlo simulation we show that, in some instances, a common risk measure such as Value-at-Risk is not subadditive when certain dependence structures are considered. Higher risk evaluations are obtained for independence between random variables than those obtained in the case of comonotonicity. The paper stresses, therefore, the relationship between dependence structures and capital estimation.

How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

TFC Redes de computadores : filtro de páginas web

Aquest treball final de carrera consisteix en la creació d'un complement que afegeix noves característiques a un navegador conegut com Firefox produït i proporcionat pel Projecte Mozilla. Aquest projecte desenvolupa, implementa i promou el programari lliure. El complement consisteix en un filtre de pàgines web a nivell de contingut.