How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

Front and domain growth in the presence of gravity

Front and domain growth of a binary mixture in the presence of a gravitational field is studied. The interplay of bulk- and surface-diffusion mechanisms is analyzed. An equation for the evolution of interfaces is derived from a time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation with a concentration-dependent diffusion coefficient. Scaling arguments on this equation give the exponents of a power-law growth. Numerical integrations of the Ginzburg-Landau equation corroborate the theoretical analysis.

Differential growth responses to water balance of coexisting deciduous tree species are linked to wood density in a Bolivian tropical dry forest

A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs). There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability.

The farthest need the best. Human capital composition and development-specific economic growth

We provide robust and compelling evidence of the marked impact of tertiary education on the economic growth of less developed countries and of its the relatively smaller impact on the growth of developed ones. Our results argue in favor of the accumulation of high skill levels especially in technologically under-developed countries and, contrary to common wisdom, independently of the fact that these economies might initially produce lower-technology goods or perform technology imitation. Our results are robust to the different measures used in proxying human capital and to the adjustments made for cross-country differences in the quality of education. Country-specific institutional quality, as well as other indicators including legal origin, religious fractionalization and openness to trade have been used to control for the robustness of the results. These factors are also shown to speed up technology convergence thereby confirming previous empirical studies. Our estimates tackle problems of endogeneity by adopting a variety of techniques, including instrumental variables -for both panel and cross-section analyses- and the two-step efficient dynamics system GMM.

The long run development of Chile and the Natural Resources curse. Linkages, policy and growth, 1850-1950

This chapter analyses the effects of Natural Resources on the Chilean economy in the long run -1850-1950-. Specifically, the authors focus their attention on the mining cycles -nitrates and copper- and their impact on the mining activity. We also compare it with the evolution of the industry and whole economy, and how this has affected the economic growth of the country. In that sense, the industrial performance in Chile at the end of the 19th century until the Great Depression is still under debate. The optimistic view of Kirsch -1977- forehead the pessimistic view of Lagos -1966- and Palma -1979-. The new data and its analyses shows a neutral effect of the Natural Resources in the industrial development.

Phosphorylation at Ser-181 of oncogenic KRAS is required for tumor growth

KRAS phosphorylation has been reported recently to modulate the activity of mutant KRAS protein in vitro. In this study, we defined S181 as a specific phosphorylation site required to license the oncogenic function of mutant KRAS in vivo. The phosphomutant S181A failed to induce tumors in mice, whereas the phosphomimetic mutant S181D exhibited an enhanced tumor formation capacity, compared with the wild-type KRAS protein. Reduced growth of tumors composed of cells expressing the nonphosphorylatable KRAS S181A mutant was correlated with increased apoptosis. Conversely, increased growth of tumors composed of cells expressing the phosphomimetic KRAS S181D mutant was correlated with increased activation of AKT and ERK, two major downstream effectors of KRAS. Pharmacologic treatment with PKC inhibitors impaired tumor growth associated with reduced levels of phosphorylated KRAS and reduced effector activation. In a panel of human tumor cell lines expressing various KRAS isoforms, we showed that KRAS phosphorylation was essential for survival and tumorigenic activity. Furthermore, we identified phosphorylated KRAS in a panel of primary human pancreatic tumors. Taken together, our findings establish that KRAS requires S181 phosphorylation to manifest its oncogenic properties, implying that its inhibition represents a relevant target to attack KRAS-driven tumors.