Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Optical correlation by use of partial phase-only modulation with VGA liquid-crystal displays

The development of liquid-crystal panels for use in commercial equipment has been aimed at improving the pixel resolution and the display efficiency. These improvements have led to a reduction in the thickness of such devices, among other outcomes, that involves a loss in phase modulation. We propose a modification of the classical phase-only filter to permit displays in VGA liquid-crystal panels with a constant amplitude modulation and less than a 2¿(PI) phase modulation. The method was tested experimentally in an optical setup.

Nucleation rates in flat and curved space

Nucleation rates for tunneling processes in Minkowski and de Sitter space are investigated, taking into account one loop prefactors. In particular, we consider the creation of membranes by an antisymmetric tensor field, analogous to Schwinger pair production. This can be viewed as a model for the decay of a false (or true) vacuum at zero temperature in the thin wall limit. Also considered is the spontaneous nucleation of strings, domain walls, and monopoles during inflation. The instantons for these processes are spherical world sheets or world lines embedded in flat or de Sitter backgrounds. We find the contribution of such instantons to the semiclassical partition function, including the one loop corrections due to small fluctuations around the spherical world sheet. We suggest a prescription for obtaining, from the partition function, the distribution of objects nucleated during inflation. This can be seen as an extension of the usual formula, valid in flat space, according to which the nucleation rate is twice the imaginary part of the free energy. For the case of pair production, the results reproduce those that can be obtained using second quantization methods, confirming the validity of instanton techniques in de Sitter space. Throughout the paper, both the gravitational field and the antisymmetric tensor field are assumed external.

A civil society response on the report of the UN High-Level Panel on system-wide coherence

Abordamos el Informe del Grupo de Alto Nivel sobre la Coherencia en todo el Sistema de las Naciones Unidas («Informe del Grupo») y el proceso de reforma de las Naciones Unidas del que forma parte como grupos de la sociedad civil que tienen una larga experiencia por lo que se refiere a propugnar reformas del sistema de las Naciones Unidas.

Univariate versus multivariate modeling of panel data

Panel data can be arranged into a matrix in two ways, called 'long' and 'wide' formats (LFand WF). The two formats suggest two alternative model approaches for analyzing paneldata: (i) univariate regression with varying intercept; and (ii) multivariate regression withlatent variables (a particular case of structural equation model, SEM). The present papercompares the two approaches showing in which circumstances they yield equivalent?insome cases, even numerically equal?results. We show that the univariate approach givesresults equivalent to the multivariate approach when restrictions of time invariance (inthe paper, the TI assumption) are imposed on the parameters of the multivariate model.It is shown that the restrictions implicit in the univariate approach can be assessed bychi-square difference testing of two nested multivariate models. In addition, commontests encountered in the econometric analysis of panel data, such as the Hausman test, areshown to have an equivalent representation as chi-square difference tests. Commonalitiesand differences between the univariate and multivariate approaches are illustrated usingan empirical panel data set of firms' profitability as well as a simulated panel data.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.

Integrin-Specific Mechanoresponses to Compression and Extension Probed by Cylindrical Flat-Ended AFM Tips in Lung Cells

Cells from lung and other tissues are subjected to forces of opposing directions that are largely transmitted through integrin-mediated adhesions. How cells respond to force bidirectionality remains ill defined. To address this question, we nanofabricated flat-ended cylindrical Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) tips with ~1 µm2 cross-section area. Tips were uncoated or coated with either integrin-specific (RGD) or non-specific (RGE/BSA) molecules, brought into contact with lung epithelial cells or fibroblasts for 30 s to form focal adhesion precursors, and used to probe cell resistance to deformation in compression and extension. We found that cell resistance to compression was globally higher than to extension regardless of the tip coating. In contrast, both tip-cell adhesion strength and resistance to compression and extension were the highest when probed at integrin-specific adhesions. These integrin-specific mechanoresponses required an intact actin cytoskeleton, and were dependent on tyrosine phosphatases and Ca2+ signaling. Cell asymmetric mechanoresponse to compression and extension remained after 5 minutes of tip-cell adhesion, revealing that asymmetric resistance to force directionality is an intrinsic property of lung cells, as in most soft tissues. Our findings provide new insights on how lung cells probe the mechanochemical properties of the microenvironment, an important process for migration, repair and tissue homeostasis.

The COPD control panel: towards personalised medicine in COPD

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous disease whose assessment and management have traditionally been based on the severity of airflow limitation (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)). Yet, it is now clear that FEV1 alone cannot describe the complexity of the disease. In fact, the recently released Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD), 2011 revision has proposed a new combined assessment method using three variables (symptoms, airflow limitation and exacerbations). Methods Here, we go one step further and propose that in the near future physicians will need a"control panel" for the assessment and optimal management of individual patients with complex diseases, including COPD, that provides a path towards personalised medicine. Results We propose that such a"COPD control panel" should include at least three different domains of the disease: severity, activity and impact. Each of these domains presents information on different"elements" of the disease with potential prognostic value and/or with specific therapeutic requirements. All this information can be easily incorporated into an"app" for daily use in clinical practice. Conclusion We recognise that this preliminary proposal needs debate, validation and evolution (eg, including"omics" and molecular imaging information in the future), but we hope that it may stimulate debate and research in the field.

General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

Sustainability of EU fiscal policies. A panel test

The fiscal policy rule implicit in the Stability and Growth Pact, has been rationalised as a way to ensure that national fiscal policies remain sustainable within the EU, thereby endorsing the independence of the ECB. We empirically examine the sustainability of European fiscal policies over the period 1970-2001. The intertemporal government budget constraint provides a test based on the cointegration relation between government revenues, expenditures and interest payments. Sustainability is analysed at both the national level and for a European panel. Results show that European fiscal policy has been sustainable overall, yet national experiences differ considerably.

Another Look at the Null of Stationary Real Exchange Rates: Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence

This paper re-examines the null of stationary of real exchange rate for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. Our analysis simultaneously considers both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous panel methods of long-run PPP. Empirical results indicate that there is little evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when the analysis does not account for structural breaks. This conclusion is reversed when structural breaks are considered in computation of the panel statistics. We also compute point estimates of half-life separately for idiosyncratic and common factor components and find that it is always below one year.

Motorways, tolls and road safety. Evidence from European Panel Data

The use of tolls is being widespread around the world. Its ability to fund infrastructure projects and to solve budget constraints have been the main rationale behind its renewed interest. However, less attention has been payed to the safety effects derived from this policy in a moment of increasing concern on road fatalities. Pricing best infrastructures shifts some drivers onto worse alternative roads usually not prepared to receive high traffic in comparable safety standards. In this paper we provide evidence of the existence of this perverse consequence by using an international European panel in a two way fixed effects estimation.

Panel Data Stochastic Convergence Analysis of the Mexican Regions

The stochastic convergence amongst Mexican Federal entities is analyzed in panel data framework. The joint consideration of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks is required to ensure that the statistical inference is based on statistics with good statistical properties. Once these features are accounted for, evidence in favour of stochastic convergence is found. Since stochastic convergence is a necessary, yet insufficient condition for convergence as predicted by economic growth models, the paper also investigates whether-convergence process has taken place. We found that the Mexican states have followed either heterogeneous convergence patterns or divergence process throughout the analyzed period.