Tourism destination zoning in rural regions: a consumer-based approach in Terres de l’Ebre

This document puts into question the conventional way of delineating tourism destinations. It intends to show a model of spatial analysis, to find new interpretations of the reality, more balanced and more optimized, in comparison with other territorial views most of them based on administrative boundaries. This paper portrays a methodological exercise that aims to structure tourism geographies into new tourism areas on the basis of visitor’s consumption patterns, which would be better fitted to the needs of tourist demand

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

The Besançon Galaxy Model renewed. I. Constraints on the Galactic thin disc evolution from Tycho data

Context. The understanding of Galaxy evolution can be facilitated by the use of population synthesis models, which allow to test hypotheses on the star formation history, star evolution, as well as chemical and dynamical evolution of the Galaxy. Aims. The new version of the Besanc¸on Galaxy Model (hereafter BGM) aims to provide a more flexible and powerful tool to investigate the Initial Mass Function (IMF) and Star Formation Rate (SFR) of the Galactic disc. Methods. We present a new strategy for the generation of thin disc stars which assumes the IMF, SFR and evolutionary tracks as free parameters. We have updated most of the ingredients for the star count production and, for the first time, binary stars are generated in a consistent way. We keep in this new scheme the local dynamical self-consistency as in Bienayme et al (1987). We then compare simulations from the new model with Tycho-2 data and the local luminosity function, as a first test to verify and constrain the new ingredients. The effects of changing thirteen different ingredients of the model are systematically studied. Results. For the first time, a full sky comparison is performed between BGM and data. This strategy allows to constrain the IMF slope at high masses which is found to be close to 3.0, excluding a shallower slope such as Salpeter"s one. The SFR is found decreasing whatever IMF is assumed. The model is compatible with a local dark matter density of 0.011 M pc−3 implying that there is no compelling evidence for significant amount of dark matter in the disc. While the model is fitted to Tycho2 data, a magnitude limited sample with V<11, we check that it is still consistent with fainter stars. Conclusions. The new model constitutes a new basis for further comparisons with large scale surveys and is being prepared to become a powerful tool for the analysis of the Gaia mission data.

Dynamic model of the left ventricle for use in simulation of myocardial perfusion SPECT and gated SPECT

Simulation is a useful tool in cardiac SPECT to assess quantification algorithms. However, simple equation-based models are limited in their ability to simulate realistic heart motion and perfusion. We present a numerical dynamic model of the left ventricle, which allows us to simulate normal and anomalous cardiac cycles, as well as perfusion defects. Bicubic splines were fitted to a number of control points to represent endocardial and epicardial surfaces of the left ventricle. A transformation from each point on the surface to a template of activity was made to represent the myocardial perfusion. Geometry-based and patient-based simulations were performed to illustrate this model. Geometry-based simulations modeled ~1! a normal patient, ~2! a well-perfused patient with abnormal regional function, ~3! an ischaemic patient with abnormal regional function, and ~4! a patient study including tracer kinetics. Patient-based simulation consisted of a left ventricle including a realistic shape and motion obtained from a magnetic resonance study. We conclude that this model has the potential to study the influence of several physical parameters and the left ventricle contraction in myocardial perfusion SPECT and gated-SPECT studies.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Background: During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia.

Flow resistance equations for mountain rivers

Three models of flow resistance (a Keulegan-type logarithmic law and two models developed for large-scale roughness conditions: the full logarithmic law and a model based on an inflectional velocity profile) were calibrated, validated and compared using an extensive database (N = 1,533) from rivers and flumes, representative of a wide hydraulic and geomorphologic range in the field of gravel-bed and mountain channels. It is preferable to apply the model based on an inflectional velocity profile in the relative submergence (y/d90) interval between 0.5 and 15, while the full logarithmic law is preferable for values below 0.5. For high relative submergence, above 15, either the logarithmic law or the full logarithmic law can be applied. The models fitted to the coarser percentiles are preferable to those fitted to the median diameter, owing to the higher explanatory power achieved by setting a model, the smaller difference in the goodness-of-fit between the different models and the lower influence of the origin of the data (river or flume).

Predicción de la resistencia al flujo en ríos de montaña

Se han calibrado, validado y comparado tres modelos de resistencia al flujo de contorno granular: un modelo potencial y otros dos modelos desarrollados para condiciones de alta rugosidad relativa (uno basado en una modificación de la ley logarítmica de Prandtl-von Karman y otro fundamentado en un perfil de velocidad configurado en dos zonas: una uniforme en las proximidades de los elementos de rugosidad y otra superior que sigue una distribución logarítmica). Se ha empleado para ello un numeroso conjunto de 1.533 datos tomados en ríos y en canales de laboratorio, representativo de un amplio intervalo hidráulico y geomorfológico en el ámbito de ríos de grava y de montaña. Han resultado preferibles las ecuaciones ajustadas con los percentiles granulométricos mayores (d90 o d84) que las ajustadas con el diámetro mediano (d50), debido a la mayor capacidad explicativa alcanzada dado un modelo, la menor diferencia en la bondad de ajuste entre los diferentes modelos y la menor influencia del origen de los datos (río o canal de laboratorio). Las ecuaciones ajustadas de acuerdo con los modelos en donde se contemplan condiciones de alta rugosidad relativa presentan predicciones similares, exceptuando el intervalo macrorrugoso (y/d90 < 1), en el que es preferible la correspondiente al modelo fundamentado en el perfil de velocidad configurado en dos zonas. Se recomienda restringir la aplicación de la ecuación ajustada con arreglo a la ley potencial al intervalo de y/d90 comprendido entre uno y veinte, puesto que fuera de dicho intervalo tiende a infraestimar notablemente la resistencia al flujo.

An integrated pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic study of a new drug of abuse, methylone, a synthetic cathinone sold as 'bath salts'

Material and methods. Methylone was administered to male Sprague-Dawley rats intravenously (10 mg/kg) and orally (15 and 30 mg/kg). Plasma concentrations and metabolites were characterized by LC/MS and LC-MS/MS fragmentation patterns. Locomotor activity was monitored for 180-240 min. Results. Oral administration of methylone induced a dose-dependent increase in locomotor activity in rats. The plasma concentrations after i.v. administration were described by a two-compartment model with distribution and terminal elimination phases of α = 1.95 h− 1 and β = 0.72 h− 1. For oral administration, peak methylone concentrations were achieved between 0.5 and 1 h and fitted to a flip-flop model. Absolute bioavailability was about 80% and the percentage of methylone protein binding was of 30%. A relationship between methylone brain levels and free plasma concentration yielded a ratio of 1.42 ± 0.06, indicating access to the central nervous system. We have identified four Phase I metabolites after oral administration. The major metabolic routes are N-demethylation, aliphatic hydroxylation and O-methylation of a demethylenate intermediate. Discussion. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis of methylone showed a correlation between plasma concentrations and enhancement of the locomotor activity. A contribution of metabolites in the activity of methylone after oral administration is suggested. Present results will be helpful to understand the time course of the effects of this drug of abuse in humans.

An integrated pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic study of a new drug of abuse, methylone, a synthetic cathinone sold as 'bath salts'

Material and methods. Methylone was administered to male Sprague-Dawley rats intravenously (10 mg/kg) and orally (15 and 30 mg/kg). Plasma concentrations and metabolites were characterized by LC/MS and LC-MS/MS fragmentation patterns. Locomotor activity was monitored for 180-240 min. Results. Oral administration of methylone induced a dose-dependent increase in locomotor activity in rats. The plasma concentrations after i.v. administration were described by a two-compartment model with distribution and terminal elimination phases of α = 1.95 h− 1 and β = 0.72 h− 1. For oral administration, peak methylone concentrations were achieved between 0.5 and 1 h and fitted to a flip-flop model. Absolute bioavailability was about 80% and the percentage of methylone protein binding was of 30%. A relationship between methylone brain levels and free plasma concentration yielded a ratio of 1.42 ± 0.06, indicating access to the central nervous system. We have identified four Phase I metabolites after oral administration. The major metabolic routes are N-demethylation, aliphatic hydroxylation and O-methylation of a demethylenate intermediate. Discussion. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis of methylone showed a correlation between plasma concentrations and enhancement of the locomotor activity. A contribution of metabolites in the activity of methylone after oral administration is suggested. Present results will be helpful to understand the time course of the effects of this drug of abuse in humans.

Characteristics of 2D convective structures in Catalonia (NE Spain): an analysis using radar data and GIS

Flood simulation studies use spatial-temporal rainfall data input into distributed hydrological models. A correct description of rainfall in space and in time contributes to improvements on hydrological modelling and design. This work is focused on the analysis of 2-D convective structures (rain cells), whose contribution is especially significant in most flood events. The objective of this paper is to provide statistical descriptors and distribution functions for convective structure characteristics of precipitation systems producing floods in Catalonia (NE Spain). To achieve this purpose heavy rainfall events recorded between 1996 and 2000 have been analysed. By means of weather radar, and applying 2-D radar algorithms a distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation is made. These data are introduced and analyzed with a GIS. In a first step different groups of connected pixels with convective precipitation are identified. Only convective structures with an area greater than 32 km2 are selected. Then, geometric characteristics (area, perimeter, orientation and dimensions of the ellipse), and rainfall statistics (maximum, mean, minimum, range, standard deviation, and sum) of these structures are obtained and stored in a database. Finally, descriptive statistics for selected characteristics are calculated and statistical distributions are fitted to the observed frequency distributions. Statistical analyses reveal that the Generalized Pareto distribution for the area and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution for the perimeter, dimensions, orientation and mean areal precipitation are the statistical distributions that best fit the observed ones of these parameters. The statistical descriptors and the probability distribution functions obtained are of direct use as an input in spatial rainfall generators.

Genetic origin of the relationship between parental negativity and behavior problems from early childhood to adolescence: A longitudinal genetically sensitive study.

Little is known about how genetic and environmental factors contribute to the association between parental negativity and behavior problems from early childhood to adolescence. The current study fitted a cross-lagged model in a sample consisting of 4,075 twin pairs to explore (a) the role of genetic and environmental factors in the relationship between parental negativity and behavior problems from age 4 to age 12, (b) whether parent-driven and child-driven processes independently explain the association, and (c) whether there are sex differences in this relationship. Both phenotypes showed substantial genetic influence at both ages. The concurrent overlap between them was mainly accounted for by genetic factors. Causal pathways representing stability of the phenotypes and parent-driven and child-driven effects significantly and independently account for the association. Significant but slight differences were found between males and females for parent-driven effects. These results were highly similar when general cognitive ability was added as a covariate. In summary, the longitudinal association between parental negativity and behavior problems seems to be bidirectional and mainly accounted for by genetic factors. Furthermore, child-driven effects were mainly genetically mediated, and parent-driven effects were a function of both genetic and shared-environmental factors.

Reaction time asymmetries between expansion and contraction

Different asymmetries between expansion and contraction (radial motions) have been reported in the literature. Often these patterns have been regarded as implying different channels for each type of radial direction (outward versus inwards) operating at a higher level of visual motion processing. In two experiments (detection and discrimination tasks) we report reaction time asymmetries between expansion and contraction. Power functions were fitted to the data. While an exponent of 0.5 accounted for the expansion data better, a value of unity yielded the best fit for the contraction data. Instead of interpreting these differences as corresponding to different higher order motion detectors, we regard these findings as reflecting the fact that expansion and contraction tap two distinct psychophysical input channels underlying the processing of fast and slow velocities respectively.