The optimum quantity of money: Theory and evidence

In this paper we propose a simple and general model for computing the Ramsey optimal inflation tax, which includes several models from the previous literature as special cases. We show that it cannot be claimed that the Friedman rule is always optimal (or always non--optimal) on theoretical grounds. The Friedman rule is optimal or not, depending on conditions related to the shape of various relevant functions. One contribution of this paper is to relate these conditions to {\it measurable} variables such as the interest rate or the consumption elasticity of money demand. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money when there are economies of scale in the demand for money (the scale elasticity is smaller than one) and/or when money is required for the payment of consumption or wage taxes. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money more heavily when the interest elasticity of money demand is small. We present empirical evidence on the parameters that determine the optimal inflation tax. Calibrating the model to a variety of empirical studies yields a optimal nominal interest rate of less than 1\%/year, although that finding is sensitive to the calibration.

Education, growth and income inequality

Estimates of the e¤ect of education on GDP (the social return to education)have been hard to reconcile with micro evidence on the private return. We present a simple explanation that combines two ideas: imperfect substitution between worker types and endogenous skill biased technological progress. When types of workers are imperfect substitutes, the supply of human capital is negatively related to its return, and a higher education level compresses wage di¤erentials. We use cross-country panel data on income inequality to estimate the private return and GDP data to estimate the social return. The results show that the private return falls by 2 percentage points when the average education level increases by a year, which is consistent with Katz and Murphy's [1992] estimate of the elasticity of substitution between worker types. We find no evidence for dynamics in the private return, and certainly not for a reversal of the negative e¤ect as described in Acemoglu [2002]. The short run social return equals the private return.

Openness, government size and the terms of trade

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

Endogenous labor market participation and the business cycle

Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a simple, tractable job market matching model, show analytically how variations in the participation rate are driven by the cross-sectional density of home productivity near the participation threshold, andhow this density translates into an extensive-margin labor supply elasticity. A calibration of the model to macro data not only matches employment and participation variabilities but also generates strongly countercyclical unemployment rates. With some wage rigidity the model also matches unemployment variations well. Furthermore, the labor supply elasticity implied by our calibration is consistent with microeconometric evidence for the US.

Killing by lung cancer or by diabetes? The trade-off between smoking and obesity

As the prevalence of smoking has decreased to below 20%, health practitioners interest has shifted towards theprevalence of obesity, and reducing it is one of the major health challenges in decades to come. In this paper westudy the impact that the final product of the anti-smoking campaign, that is, smokers quitting the habit, had onaverage weight in the population. To these ends, we use data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System,a large series of independent representative cross-sectional surveys. We construct a synthetic panel that allows us tocontrol for unobserved heterogeneity and we exploit the exogenous changes in taxes and regulations to instrumentthe endogenous decision to give up the habit of smoking. Our estimates, are very close to estimates issued in the 90sby the US Department of Health, and indicate that a 10% decrease in the incidence of smoking leads to an averageweight increase of 2.2 to 3 pounds, depending on choice of specification. In addition, we find evidence that the effectovershoots in the short run, although a significant part remains even after two years. However, when we split thesample between men and women, we only find a significant effect for men. Finally, the implicit elasticity of quittingsmoking to the probability of becoming obese is calculated at 0.58. This implies that the net benefit from reducingthe incidence of smoking by 1% is positive even though the cost to society is $0.6 billions.

How important are tobacco prices in the propensity to start and quit smoking? An analysis of smoking histories from the Spanish National Health Survey

This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.

Markups, gaps and the welfare costs of business fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted,the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.

Transportation choices and the value of statistical life

This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to estimate the value of a statistical life(VSL). We estimate the trade-offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk andcost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone (which is separated fromthe capital Freetown by a body of water). Travelers choose from among multiple transportoptions ? namely, ferry, helicopter, hovercraft, and water taxi. The setting and original datasetallow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns in order to generate some of the firstrevealed preference VSL estimates from Africa. The data also allows us to compare VSLestimates for travelers from 56 countries, including 20 African and 36 non-African countries, allfacing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample isUS$577,000 compared to US$924,000 for non-Africans. Individual characteristics, particularlyjob earnings, can largely account for the difference between Africans and non-Africans; Africansin the sample typically earn somewhat less. There is little evidence that individual VSL estimatesare driven by a lack of information, predicted life expectancy, or cultural norms around risktakingor fatalism. The data implies an income elasticity of the VSL of 1.77. These revealedpreference VSL estimates from a developing country fill an important gap in the existingliterature, and can be used for a variety of public policy purposes, including in current debateswithin Sierra Leone regarding the desirability of constructing new transportation infrastructure.

Thermoplastic Starch-based Composites Reinforced with Rape Fibers: Water Uptake and Thermomechanical Properties

Fully biodegradable composite materials were obtained through reinforcement of a commercially available thermoplastic starch (TPS) matrix with rapeseed fibers (RSF). The influence of reinforcement content on the water sorption capacity, as well as thermal and thermo-mechanical properties of composites were evaluated. Even though the hydrophilic character of natural fibers tends to favor the absorption of water, results demonstrated that the incorporation of RSF did not have a significant effect on the water uptake of the composites. DSC experiments showed that fibers restricted the mobility of the starch macromolecules from the TPS matrix, hence reducing their capacity to crystallize. The viscoelastic behaviour of TPS was also affected, and reinforced materials presented lower viscous deformation and recovery capacity. In addition, the elasticity of materials was considerably diminished when increasing fiber content, as evidenced in the TMA and DMTA measurements

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

[cat] En aquest treball extenem les reformes lineals introduïdes per Pfähler (1984) al cas d’impostos duals. Estudiem l’efecte relatiu que els retalls lineals duals d’un impost dual tenen sobre la distribució de la desigualtat -es pot fer un estudi simètric per al cas d’augments d’impostos-. Tambe introduïm mesures del grau de progressivitat d’impostos duals i mostrem que estan connectades amb el criteri de dominació de Lorenz. Addicionalment, estudiem l’elasticitat de la càrrega fiscal de cadascuna de les reformes proposades. Finalment, gràcies a un model de microsimulació i una gran base de dades que conté informació sobre l’IRPF espanyol de l’any 2004, 1) comparem l’efecte que diferents reformes tindrien sobre l’impost dual espanyol i 2) estudiem quina redistribució de la riquesa va suposar la reforma dual de l’IRPF (Llei ’35/2006’) respecte l’anterior impost.

Price transmission and market power analysis in the Spanish seafood market chain

[cat] Espanya és un dels principals mercats de productes pesquers d’Europa i del món. El consum de productes pesquers ha estat tradicionalment molt important a Espanya, el 2005 es varen consumir 36,7 kg per persona (MAPA, diversos anys). Malgrat això, el mercat i cóm interactuen els diversos nivells de la cadena de comercialització han gaudit de poca atenció. En aquest estudi, utilitzant dades setmanals, s’analitza per als dotze principals productes pesquers, l’elasticitat en la transmissió de preus al llarg de la cadena de comercialització a Espanya (llotja, mercat central i detallista). Finalment s’investiga la presència d’assimetria en la transmissió de preus entre aquests nivells de mercat. Els resultats obtinguts tenen importants implicacions a l’hora d’analitzar la demanda, poder de mercat i marges al llarg del mercat per als productes pesquers.

Drug price differentials caused by de-listing and price cap policies

This paper analyses the behaviour of pharmaceutical companies that face the threat of having their drugs excluded from reimbursement and the markets characterised also by price caps. We conclude that price elasticity of demand and cost differentials cause the price discounts which drug firms offer to health care organisations. Additionally, we conclude that price cap regulations affect the time path of prices, resulting in higher prices for new products and lower prices for old products.

Comment on "Reappraisal of experimental values of third-order elastic constants of some cubic semiconductors and metals"

In a recent paper A. S. Johal and D. J. Dunstan [Phys. Rev. B 73, 024106 (2006)] have applied multivariate linear regression analysis to the published data of the change in ultrasonic velocity with applied stress. The aim is to obtain the best estimates for the third-order elastic constants in cubic materials. From such an analysis they conclude that uniaxial stress data on metals turns out to be nearly useless by itself. The purpose of this comment is to point out that by a proper analysis of uniaxial stress data it is possible to obtain reliable values of third-order elastic constants in cubic metals and alloys. Cu-based shape memory alloys are used as an illustrative example.

Temperature and magnetic-field dependence of the elastic constants of Ni-Mn-Al magnetic Heusler alloy

We report on measurements of the adiabatic second-order elastic constants of the off-stoichiometric Ni54Mn23Al23 single-crystalline Heusler alloy. The variation in the temperature dependence of the elastic constants has been investigated across the magnetic transition and over a broad temperature range. Anomalies in the temperature behavior of the elastic constants have been found in the vicinity of the magnetic phase transition. Measurements under applied magnetic field, both isothermal and variable temperature, show that the value of the elastic constants depends on magnetic order, thus giving evidence for magnetoelastic coupling in this alloy system.