Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.

Migration across Spanish provinces: Evidence from the social security records (1978-1992)

This paper uses Social Security records to study internal migrationin Spain. This is the first paper that uses this data source, whichhas some advantages with respect to existing data sources: it includesonly job-seeking migrants and it allows to identify temporary migration. Within the framework of an extended gravity model, we estimate a Generalized Negative Binomial regression on gross migration flows between provinces. We quantify the effect of local labor market imbalances on workers' mobility and discuss the equilibrating role of internal migration in Spain. Our main results show that the effect of employment opportunities have changed after 1984; migrants seem to be more responsive to economic conditions but, consistently with previous studies for the Spanish labor market, the migration response to wage differentials is wrongly signed. Our analysis also confirms the larger internal mobility of highly qualified workers.

Social security in theory and practice (I): Facts and political theories

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? We document some of the internationally and historically common features of Social Security programs including explicit and implicit taxes on labor supply, pay-as-you-go features, intergenerational redistribution, benefits which areincreasing functions of lifetime earnings and not means-tested. We partition theories of Social Security into three groups: "political", "efficiency" and "narrative" theories. We explore three political theories in this paper: the majority rational voting model (with its two versions: "the elderly as the leaders of a winning coalition with the poor" and the "once and for all election" model), the "time-intensive model of political competition" and the "taxpayer protection model". Each of the explanations is compared with the international and historical facts. A companion paper explores the "efficiency" and "narrative" theories, and derives implicationsof all the theories for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan.

Gerontocracy, retirement, and social security

Why are the old politically successful? We build a simple interest group model in which political pressure is time-intensive, showing that in the political competitive equilibrium each group lobbies for government policies that lower their own value of time but the old do so to a greater extent and as a result are net gainers from the political process. What distinguishes the elderly from other political groups (and what makes them more succesful) is that they have lower labor productivity and/or that we are all likely to become elderly at some point, while we are relatively unlikely to change gender, race, sexual orientation, or even ocupation, The model has a variety of implications for the design of social security programs, which we test using data from the Social Security Administration. For example, the model predicts that social security programs with retirement incentives are larger and that the old are more "single-minded" in their politics, implications which we verify using cross-country government finance data and cross-country political participation surveys. Finally, we show that the forced savings programs intended to "reform" the social security system may increase the amount of intergenerational redistribution. As a model for evaluating policy reforms, ours has the attractive feature that reforms must be time time consistent from a political point of view rather than a public interest point of view.

Security analysts as frame-makers

In this paper we explore the mechanisms that allow securities analysts to value companies in contexts of Knightian uncertainty, that is, in the face of information that is unclear, subject to unforeseeable contingencies or to multiple interpretations. We address this question with a grounded-theory analysis of the reports written on Amazon.com by securities analyst Henry Blodget and rival analysts during the years 1998-2000. Our core finding is that analysts' reports are structured by internally consistent associations that includecategorizations, key metrics and analogies. We refer to these representations as calculative frames, and propose that analysts function as frame-makers - that is, asspecialized intermediaries that help investors value uncertain stocks. We conclude by considering the implications of frame-making for the rise of new industry categories, analysts' accuracy, and the regulatory debate on analysts'independence.

En route to a more democratic European Union – An analysis of the communication strategies of European Citizens’ Initiatives (ECIs)

L’èxit de l’iniciativa ciutadana europea (ICE) com a instrument de democràcia directa a nivell europeu està directament relacionat amb la seva promulgació. Els ciutadans d’arreu Europa han d’estar informats sobre aquest nou mecanisme per tal que es dugui a terme, la qual cosa suposa una dificultat. Aquest estudi qualitatiu ens mostra els recursos i problemes en la divulgació de les ICE. Una anàlisi basat en entrevistes amb diferents organitzadors d’aquestes ICE que ens dona algunes idees sobre les seves estratègies de comunicació, així com l’ús d’eines de comunicació i relacions amb els mitjans de comunicació. A banda de les dificultats lingüístiques i financeres hi ha altres obstacles més específics relacionats amb l’ICE.

Security strategies and equilibria in multiobjetives matrix games

Multiobjective matrix games have been traditionally analyzed from two different points of view: equiibrium concepts and security strategies. This paper is based upon the idea that both players try to reach equilibrium points playing pairs of security strategies, as it happens in scalar matrix games. We show conditions guaranteeing the existence of equilibria in security strategies, named security equilibria

Security strategies and equilibria in multiobjetives matrix games

Multiobjective matrix games have been traditionally analyzed from two different points of view: equiibrium concepts and security strategies. This paper is based upon the idea that both players try to reach equilibrium points playing pairs of security strategies, as it happens in scalar matrix games. We show conditions guaranteeing the existence of equilibria in security strategies, named security equilibria

Energy security of the Baltic States

Energy security is an important topic on the world agenda and has augmented its importance since the term “peak oil” was coined. Energy security is a crucial issue for most countries but some are more dependent on foreign supply than others. Traditionally, the Baltic States have been dependent on Russia for much of their oil and gas supplies, which makes them vulnerable to political pressure. Therefore, energy security, that is ensuring sufficient supply and safe delivery and in this case reduce dependency on a single provider – Russia, entails a conspicuous foreign policy dimension. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been described as energy islands within the EU. This paper tries to answer the question if energy security of the Baltic States has improved since their accession to the EU in 2004. Additionally, it will analyse the prospects of energy security, noting that one of the Lithuanian aims during its European presidency in 2013 is to improve energy security of the Baltic States by fostering cooperation with EU member states.

Sharing and Learning= Changing. A real story at the Institute of Public Security of Catalonia

The Institute has professionals with extensive experience in training, specifically with experience in the field of police and emergencies training. Moreover, it also has very talented people. But above all, our institution has public professionals with a desire to serve, who love security and emergency responders and want to provide them with the best knowledge to make them every day better professionals. In the quest for continuous training improvement, its during 2009 when e-learning begins to have a presence at the Institute. Virtual training methodology becomes a facilitator for the training of various professionals, avoiding geographical displacement and easing the class schedule.