How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

Proposing a 'Consent Commons' in open education - balancing the desire for openness with the rights of people to refuse or withdraw from participation

A new 'Consent Commons' licensing framework is proposed, complementing Creative Commons, to clarify the permissions given for using and reusing clinical and non-clinical digital recordings of people (patients and non-patients) for educational purposes. Consent Commons is a sophisticated expression of ethically based 'digital professionalism', which recognises the rights of patients, carers, their families, teachers, clinicians, students and members of the public to have some say in how their digital recordings are used (including refusing or withdrawing their consent), and is necessary in order to ensure the long term sustainability of teaching materials, including Open Educational Resources (OER). Consent Commons can ameliorate uncertainty about the status of educational resources depicting people, and protect institutions from legal risk by developing robust and sophisticated policies and promoting best practice in managing their information.

Anàlisi i redisseny de la xarxa de distribució d’ aigua potable a alta pressió de Santa Cristina d’ Aro.

En el present treball es realitza un estudi hidràulic i de qualitat de les aigües de la xarxa municipal per tal d’analitzar en primer lloc el seu estat actual i proposar posteriorment una sèrie d’actuacions de millora. Això s’ha desenvolupat amb l’ajuda d’un programa de simulació de xarxes hidràuliques i de qualitat, en ser l’estudi d’una elevada envergadura, que feia inviable l’estudi empíric de la instal•lació. El simulador utilitzat ha estat l’EPANET, el qual va estar elaborat per la NATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH LABORATORY de Cincinatty, als Estats Units i traduït a l’espanyol pel grup REDHISP Inst. Ingenieria del agua y M.A. de la Universitat Politècnica de València

Interbank Competition with Costly Screening

We analyse credit market equilibrium when banks screen loan applicants. When banks have a convex cost function of screening, a pure strategy equilibrium exists where banks optimally set interest rates at the same level as their competitors. This result complements Broecker s (1990) analysis, where he demonstrates that no pure strategy equilibrium exists when banks have zero screening costs. In our set up we show that interest rate on loans are largely independent of marginal costs, a feature consistent with the extant empirical evidence. In equilibrium, banks make positive profits in our model in spite of the threat of entry by inactive banks. Moreover, an increase in the number of active banks increases credit risk and so does not improve credit market effciency: this point has important regulatory implications. Finally, we extend our analysis to the case where banks have differing screening abilities.

Crises and growth: A re-evaluation

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generateborrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, wherethe nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

Local volatility changes in the black-scholes model

In this paper we address a problem arising in risk management; namely the study of price variations of different contingent claims in the Black-Scholes model due to anticipating future events. The method we propose to use is an extension of the classical Vega index, i.e. the price derivative with respect to the constant volatility, in thesense that we perturb the volatility in different directions. Thisdirectional derivative, which we denote the local Vega index, will serve as the main object in the paper and one of the purposes is to relate it to the classical Vega index. We show that for all contingent claims studied in this paper the local Vega index can be expressed as a weighted average of the perturbation in volatility. In the particular case where the interest rate and the volatility are constant and the perturbation is deterministic, the local Vega index is an average of this perturbation multiplied by the classical Vega index. We also study the well-known goal problem of maximizing the probability of a perfect hedge and show that the speed of convergence is in fact dependent of the local Vega index.

Interbank comptetition with costly screening

We analyse credit market equilibrium when banks screen loan applicants. When banks have a convex cost function of screening, a pure strategy equilibrium exists where banks optimally set interest rates at the same level as their competitors. This result complements Broecker s (1990) analysis, where he demonstrates that no pure strategy equilibrium exists when banks have zero screening costs. In our set up we show that interest rate on loansare largely independent of marginal costs, a feature consistent with the extant empirical evidence. In equilibrium, banks make positive profits in our model in spite of the threat of entry by inactive banks. Moreover, an increase in the number of active banks increases credit risk and so does not improve credit market effciency: this point has important regulatory implications. Finally, we extend our analysis to the case where banks havediffering screening abilities.

The use of derivatives in the Spanish mutual fund industry

We study the use of derivatives in the Spanish mutual fund industry. The picture that emerges from our analysis is rather negative. In general, the use of derivatives does not improve the performance of the funds. In only one out of eight categories we find some (very weak and not robust) evidence of superior performance. In most of the cases users significantly underperform non users. Furthermore, users do not seem to exhibit superior timing or selectivity skills either, but rather the contrary. This bad performance is only partially explained by the larger fees funds using derivatives charge. Moreover,we do not find evidence of derivatives being used for hedging purposes. We do find evidence of derivatives being used for speculation. But users in only one category exhibit skills as speculators. Finally, we find evidence of derivatives being used to manage the funds cash inflows and outflows more efficiently.

La percepción del riesgo de inundación: experiencias de aprendizaje en la costa brava

Taking as an example three study cases in the Costa Brava area, this paper examines through surveys and interviews the perception of floods among residents living in hazardous areas. perception is then related to vulnerability, flood management, and citizens preferences regarding alternatives to curb flood losses in the future. The study concludes that flood awareness and the willingness to take actions regarding this hazard is clearly related to the degree of social involvement with the affairs of the local community

The Impact of Monetary Union on EU-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads

With European Monetary Union (EMU), there was an increase in the adjusted spreads (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) of euro participating countries' sovereign securities over Germany and a decrease in those of non-euro countries. The objective of this paper is to study the reasons for this result, and in particular, whether the change in the price assigned by markets was due to domestic factors such as credit risk and/or market liquidity, or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence suggests that market size scale economies have increased since EMU for all European markets, so the effect of the various risk factors, even though it differs between euro and non-euro countries, is always dependent on the size of the market.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas: an application to the Spanish stock market

In this paper we deal with the identification of dependencies between time series of equity returns. Marginal distribution functions are assumed to be known, and a bivariate chi-square test of fit is applied in a fully parametric copula approach. Several families of copulas are fitted and compared with Spanish stock market data. The results show that the t-copula generally outperforms other dependence structures, and highlight the difficulty in adjusting a significant number of bivariate data series

Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing

With the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU), euro-area sovereign securities¿ adjusted spreads over Germany (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) experienced an increase that caused a lower than expected decline in borrowing costs. The objective of this paper is to study what explains that rising. In particular, if it took place a change in the price assigned by markets to domestic (credit risk and/or market liquidity) or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence supports the idea that a change in the market value of liquidity occurred with the EMU. International and default risk play a smaller role