Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Implementation of a robust coded structured light technique for dynamic 3D measurements

This paper presents the implementation details of a coded structured light system for rapid shape acquisition of unknown surfaces. Such techniques are based on the projection of patterns onto a measuring surface and grabbing images of every projection with a camera. Analyzing the pattern deformations that appear in the images, 3D information of the surface can be calculated. The implemented technique projects a unique pattern so that it can be used to measure moving surfaces. The structure of the pattern is a grid where the color of the slits are selected using a De Bruijn sequence. Moreover, since both axis of the pattern are coded, the cross points of the grid have two codewords (which permits to reconstruct them very precisely), while pixels belonging to horizontal and vertical slits have also a codeword. Different sets of colors are used for horizontal and vertical slits, so the resulting pattern is invariant to rotation. Therefore, the alignment constraint between camera and projector considered by a lot of authors is not necessary

La Figura del pedagog/a dins l’àmbit de l’orientació professional

El treball pretén conèixer l’orientació professional d’una manera àmplia per tal d’analitzar quines són les competències professionals necessàries i fonamentals per tal d’exercir d’orientador/a professional. Es realitza una anàlisi sobre el perfil professional del pedagog/a que exerceix com orientador/a, alhora que realitza una reflexió partint de les competències professionals, que permet analitzar la figura del pedagog/a dins l’àmbit de l’orientació professional

Análisis de la proyección profesional del Grado de Ingeniería Informática y Telecomunicación : Viabilidad profesional en tiempos de crisis y benchmarking

El objetivo específico del TFG es el de realizar un análisis riguroso en base a fuentes externas y referencias de probada veracidad en relación a la oferta universitaria actual de estudios de Grado de Informática y Telecomunicación en España en la modalidad de e-learning o educación a distancia.

Competencia comunicativa escrita en el ámbito profesional del sector TIC

Este Proyecto Final de Carrera (PFC) consiste en la realización de un estudio sobre la importancia que tiene la competencia comunicativa escrita en el ámbito profesional de las organizaciones del sector TIC ( Tecnología de la Información y Comunicaciones). En este estudio se recoge la valoración de expertos sobre la competencia de la comunicación escrita tanto desde el ámbito laboral como desde el académico ( fundamentalmente debido a la adaptación al EEES en los planes de estudio de las universidades con titulaciones TIC) a través de diferentes artículos y otros documentos. Además también se muestra la valoración que otorgan tanto egresados en empresas del sector como estudiantes de ingeniería informática en la UOC sobre dicha competencia mediante los datos recogidos en cuestionarios.

Presidents and parties in regional politics: Italy and Spain compared

This article examines the relationship between political parties and regional presidents in Italy and Spain, adopting a comparative case study approach based on extensive archival analysis and in-depth interviews with regional politicians. The findings confirm a strong pattern of growing presidentialism at regional level, regardless of whether there are formal mechanisms for direct election, and regardless of the partisan composition of regional government. Regional presidents tend to exert their growing power through a personalised control of regional party organisations, rather than governing past parties in a direct appeal to the electorate. Nevertheless, parties can still present a significant constraint on regional presidents, so successful regional presidents tend to maintain a mediating form of leadership and fully exploit the opportunities for party patronage to build up their support and smooth governing tensions. An autonomist drive helps presidents hold together disparate coalitions or loose parties at regional level, but their lack of internal coherence presents major problems when it comes to political succession.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Disruption management

The main objective of this project is to model the ARP (Aircraft Recovery Problem) from a constraint programming (CP) point of view. The information required for this project is extracted from previous papers that cope with the problem using heuristics, metaheuristics or using network-models. Also, two scenarios will be tested to verify that the implementation is correct.

Fault diagnosis by refining the parameter uncertainty space of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation problems for nonlinear dynamic systems. Both problems are stated as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and solved using consistency techniques. The main contribution is the isolation method based on consistency techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. The major advantage of this method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements, and model errors. Interval calculations bring independence from the assumption of monotony considered by several approaches for fault isolation which are based on observers. An application to a well known alcoholic fermentation process model is presented

Robust fault detection using consistency techniques for uncertainty handling

Often practical performance of analytical redundancy for fault detection and diagnosis is decreased by uncertainties prevailing not only in the system model, but also in the measurements. In this paper, the problem of fault detection is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem over continuous domains with a big number of variables and constraints. This problem can be solved using modal interval analysis and consistency techniques. Consistency techniques are then shown to be particularly efficient to check the consistency of the analytical redundancy relations (ARRs), dealing with uncertain measurements and parameters. Through the work presented in this paper, it can be observed that consistency techniques can be used to increase the performance of a robust fault detection tool, which is based on interval arithmetic. The proposed method is illustrated using a nonlinear dynamic model of a hydraulic system

Anàlisi de les competències transversals dels professionals de les TIC en l'àmbit empresarial

Aquest estudi es centra en l'anàlisi del concepte de competències transversals (CT) i en la valoració d'aquestes per part del sector empresarial lligat als professionals de les TIC.

Characterization and evolution of the novel gene family FAM90A in primates originated by multiple duplication and rearrangement events

Genomic plasticity of human chromosome 8p23.1 region is highly influenced by two groups of complex segmental duplications (SDs), termed REPD and REPP, that mediate different kinds of rearrangements. Part of the difficulty to explain the wide range of phenotypes associated with 8p23.1 rearrangements is that REPP and REPD are not yet well characterized, probably due to their polymorphic status. Here, we describe a novel primate-specific gene family, named FAM90A (family with sequence similarity 90), found within these SDs. According to the current human reference sequence assembly, the FAM90A family includes 24 members along 8p23.1 region plus a single member on chromosome 12p13.31, showing copy number variation (CNV) between individuals. These genes can be classified into subfamilies I and II, which differ in their upstream and 5′-untranslated region sequences, but both share the same open reading frame and are ubiquitously expressed. Sequence analysis and comparative fluorescence in situ hybridization studies showed that FAM90A subfamily II suffered a big expansion in the hominoid lineage, whereas subfamily I members were likely generated sometime around the divergence of orangutan and African great apes by a fusion process. In addition, the analysis of the Ka/Ks ratios provides evidence of functional constraint of some FAM90A genes in all species. The characterization of the FAM90A gene family contributes to a better understanding of the structural polymorphism of the human 8p23.1 region and constitutes a good example of how SDs, CNVs and rearrangements within themselves can promote the formation of new gene sequences with potential functional consequences.

Design and evaluation of a panel os single-nucleotide polymorphisms in microRNA genomic regions for association studies in human disease

MicroRNAs (miRNA) are recognized posttranscriptional gene repressors involved in the control of almost every biological process. Allelic variants in these regions may be an important source of phenotypic diversity and contribute to disease susceptibility. We analyzed the genomic organization of 325 human miRNAs (release 7.1, miRBase) to construct a panel of 768 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) covering approximately 1 Mb of genomic DNA, including 131 isolated miRNAs (40%) and 194 miRNAs arranged in 48 miRNA clusters, as well as their 5-kb flanking regions. Of these miRNAs, 37% were inside known protein-coding genes, which were significantly associated with biological functions regarding neurological, psychological or nutritional disorders. SNP coverage analysis revealed a lower SNP density in miRNAs compared with the average of the genome, with only 24 SNPs located in the 325 miRNAs studied. Further genotyping of 340 unrelated Spanish individuals showed that more than half of the SNPs in miRNAs were either rare or monomorphic, in agreement with the reported selective constraint on human miRNAs. A comparison of the minor allele frequencies between Spanish and HapMap population samples confirmed the applicability of this SNP panel to the study of complex disorders among the Spanish population, and revealed two miRNA regions, hsa-mir-26a-2 in the CTDSP2 gene and hsa-mir-128-1 in the R3HDM1 gene, showing geographical allelic frequency variation among the four HapMap populations, probably because of differences in natural selection. The designed miRNA SNP panel could help to identify still hidden links between miRNAs and human disease.

Optimum power allocation for parallel Gaussian channels with arbitrary input distributions

The mutual information of independent parallel Gaussian-noise channels is maximized, under an average power constraint, by independent Gaussian inputs whose power is allocated according to the waterfilling policy. In practice, discrete signalling constellations with limited peak-to-average ratios (m-PSK, m-QAM, etc) are used in lieu of the ideal Gaussian signals. This paper gives the power allocation policy that maximizes the mutual information over parallel channels with arbitrary input distributions. Such policy admits a graphical interpretation, referred to as mercury/waterfilling, which generalizes the waterfilling solution and allows retaining some of its intuition. The relationship between mutual information of Gaussian channels and nonlinear minimum mean-square error proves key to solving the power allocation problem.

Guiding students through competence-based educational material

Student guidance is an always desired characteristic in any educational system, butit represents special difficulty if it has to be deployed in an automated way to fulfilsuch needs in a computer supported educational tool. In this paper we explorepossible avenues relying on machine learning techniques, to be included in a nearfuture -in the form of a tutoring navigational tool- in a teleeducation platform -InterMediActor- currently under development. Since no data from that platform isavailable yet, the preliminary experiments presented in this paper are builtinterpreting every subject in the Telecommunications Degree at Universidad CarlosIII de Madrid as an aggregated macro-competence (following the methodologicalconsiderations in InterMediActor), such that marks achieved by students can beused as data for the models, to be replaced in a near future by real data directlymeasured inside InterMediActor. We evaluate the predictability of students qualifications, and we deploy a preventive early detection system -failure alert-, toidentify those students more prone to fail a certain subject such that correctivemeans can be deployed with sufficient anticipation.