Inflation, political instability and stockmarket volatility in interwar Germany

What determined the volatility of asset prices in Germany between thewars? This paper argues that the influence of political factors has beenoverstated. The majority of events increasing political uncertainty hadlittle or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility ofreturns on them. Instead, it was inflation (and the fear of it) that islargely responsible for most of the variability in asset returns.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

Inflationary expectations during Germany's great slump

Was the German slump inevitable? This paper argues that -despite thespeed and depth of Germany's deflation in the early 1930s - fear ofinflation is evident in the bond, foreign exchange, and commodity marketsat certain critical junctures of the Great Depression. Therefore, policyoptions were more limited than many subsequent critics of Brüning'spolicies have been prepared to admit. Using a rational expectationsframework, we find strong evidence from the bondmarket to suggest fearof inflation. Futures prices also reveal that market participants werebetting on price increases. These findings are discussed in the contextof reparations and related to the need for a regime shift to overcomethe crisis.

A virtual exhibition of open source software for libraries

Frequently the choice of a library management program is conditioned by social, economic and/or political factors that result in the selection of a system that is not altogether suitable for the library’s needs, characteristics and functions. Open source software is quickly becoming a preferred solution, owing to the freedom to copy, modify and distribute it and the freedom from contracts, as well as for greater opportunities for interoperability with other applications. These new trends regarding open source software in libraries are also reflected in LIS studies, as evidenced by the different courses addressing automated programs, repositorymanagement, including the Linux/GNU operating system, among others. The combination of the needs of the centres and the new trends for open source software is the focus of a virtual laboratory for the use of open source software for library applications. It was the result of a project, whose aim was to make a useful contribution to the library community, that was carried out by a group of professors of the School of Library and Information Science of the University of Barcelona, together with a group of students, members of a Working Group on Open Source Software for Information Professionals, of the Professional Library Association of Catalonia.

Trimestralización y conciliación de magnitudes económicas : una ampliación del método Chow-Lin

Una de las herramientas estadísticas más importantes para el seguimiento y análisis de la evolución de la actividad económica a corto plazo es la disponibilidad de estimaciones de la evolución trimestral de los componentes del PIB, en lo que afecta tanto a la oferta como a la demanda. La necesidad de disponer de esta información con un retraso temporal reducido hace imprescindible la utilización de métodos de trimestralización que permitan desagregar la información anual a trimestral. El método más aplicado, puesto que permite resolver este problema de manera muy elegante bajo un enfoque estadístico de estimador óptimo, es el método de Chow-Lin. Pero este método no garantiza que las estimaciones trimestrales del PIB en lo que respecta a la oferta y a la demanda coincidan, haciendo necesaria la aplicación posterior de algún método de conciliación. En este trabajo se desarrolla una ampliación multivariante del método de Chow-Lin que permite resolver el problema de la estimación de los valores trimestrales de manera óptima, sujeta a un conjunto de restricciones. Una de las aplicaciones potenciales de este método, que hemos denominado método de Chow-Lin restringido, es precisamente la estimación conjunta de valores trimestrales para cada uno de los componentes del PIB en lo que afecta tanto a la demanda como a la oferta condicionada a que ambas estimaciones trimestrales del PIB sean iguales, evitando así la necesidad de aplicar posteriormente métodos de conciliación

Trimestralización y conciliación de magnitudes económicas : una ampliación del método Chow-Lin

Una de las herramientas estadísticas más importantes para el seguimiento y análisis de la evolución de la actividad económica a corto plazo es la disponibilidad de estimaciones de la evolución trimestral de los componentes del PIB, en lo que afecta tanto a la oferta como a la demanda. La necesidad de disponer de esta información con un retraso temporal reducido hace imprescindible la utilización de métodos de trimestralización que permitan desagregar la información anual a trimestral. El método más aplicado, puesto que permite resolver este problema de manera muy elegante bajo un enfoque estadístico de estimador óptimo, es el método de Chow-Lin. Pero este método no garantiza que las estimaciones trimestrales del PIB en lo que respecta a la oferta y a la demanda coincidan, haciendo necesaria la aplicación posterior de algún método de conciliación. En este trabajo se desarrolla una ampliación multivariante del método de Chow-Lin que permite resolver el problema de la estimación de los valores trimestrales de manera óptima, sujeta a un conjunto de restricciones. Una de las aplicaciones potenciales de este método, que hemos denominado método de Chow-Lin restringido, es precisamente la estimación conjunta de valores trimestrales para cada uno de los componentes del PIB en lo que afecta tanto a la demanda como a la oferta condicionada a que ambas estimaciones trimestrales del PIB sean iguales, evitando así la necesidad de aplicar posteriormente métodos de conciliación

Depositional models of lacustrine evaporites in the SE margin of the Ebro basin (Paleogene, NE Spain)

An important evaporitic sedimentation occurred during the Paleogene (Eocene to lower Oligocene) in the Barberà sector of the southeastern margin of the Tertiary Ebro Basin. This sedimentation took place in shallow lacustrine environments and was controlled by a number of factors: 1) the tectonic structuration of the margin; 2) the high calcium sulphate content in the meteoric waters coming from the marginal reliefs; 3) the semiarid climate; and 4) the development of large alluvial fans along the basin margin, which also conditioned the location of the saline lakes. The evaporites are currently composed of secondary gypsum in surface and anhydrite at depth. There are, however, vestiges of the local presence of sodium sulphates. The evaporite units, with individual thicknesses ranging between 50 and 100 m, are intercalated within various lithostratigraphic formations and exhibit a paleogeographical pattern. The units located closer to the basin margin are characterized by a massive gypsum lithofacies (originally, bioturbated gypsum) bearing chert, and also by meganodular gypsum locally (originally, meganodules of anhydrite) in association with red lutites and clastic intercalations (gypsarenites, sandstones and conglomerates). Chert, which is only linked to the thickest gypsum layers, seems to be an early diagenetic, lacustrine product. Cyclicity in these proximal units indicates the progressive development of lowsalinity, lacustrine bodies on red mud flats. At the top of some cycles, exposure episodes commonly resulted in dissolution, erosion, and the formation of edaphic features. In contrast, the units located in a more distal position with regard to the basin margin are formed by an alternation of banded-nodular gypsum and laminated gypsum layers in association with grey lutites and few clastic intercalations. These distal units formed in saline lakes with a higher ionic concentration. Exposure episodes in these lakes resulted in the formation of synsedimentary anhydrite and sabkha cycles. In some of these units, however, outer rims characterized by a lithofacies association similar to that of the proximal units occur (nodular gypsum, massive gypsum and chert nodules).

Influencia de los medios de comunicación y de los grupos sociales en la percepción de la imagen corporal en pacientes con anorexia neviosa

La anorexia nerviosa es un trastorno de la conducta alimentaria que se caracteriza por unapérdida de peso superior al saludablemente recomendado, conductas para perder peso y evitarel aumento de peso, miedo a la obesidad y distorsión de la imagen corporal. Tanto la incidenciacomo la prevalencia de este tipo de trastornos ha aumentado considerablemente en las últimasdécadas, son varios los estudios que afirman que hay una estrecha relación entre la influencia delos factores socioculturales y el grado de distorsión de la imagen corporal en este tipo depacientes.El objetivo de este estudio es analizar la influencia que ejercen los medios de comunicación ylos grupos sociales en la distorsión de la imagen corporal de pacientes con anorexia nerviosa.Para lograr este objetivo se realizará un estudio fenomenológico con pacientes de 16 a 21 añosque se visiten en un hospital de día de trastornos de la conducta alimentaria. Los datos serecogerán mediante de una entrevista semiestructurada basada en los ítems del cuestionario deinfluencia de los modelos estéticos corporales (CIMEC). El análisis de los datos obtenidos serápor edición, transcribiendo la entrevista, identificando los segmentos significativos paraposteriormente poderlos analizar.En relación con las consideraciones finales, es un estudio que dentro de la subjetividad podríaser realmente útil para conocer desde el punto de vista del paciente cómo influyen los medios decomunicación y las relaciones sociales en la anorexia nerviosa, permitiendo la propuesta deacciones futuras que ayuden a estos adolescentes y adultos jóvenes a hacer frente a la presiónque ejerce la sociedad.

La construcción de la imagen de la política en los noticiarios televisivos en España. Exo- y endo- equilibrios de la calidad de la información política

En nuestra sociedad la imagen que los ciudadanos tenemos de la política está fuertemente condicionada por cómo esta aparece en los medios de comunicación y, en particular, en los noticiarios televisivos. Este artículo, fruto de un proyecto de investigación I+D+I financiado por el Ministerio de Educación, Política Social y Deporte, analiza las noticias de temática política de ocho canales de televisión en España con el objetivo de comprobar cuál es la presencia de la política en los noticiarios, qué imagen se construye de la política en ellos. Además, propone una nueva metodología para establecer la calidad de las informaciones políticas en los noticiarios televisivos en España a través de la definición de los endo- y exo- equilibrios de los contenidos políticos de los noticiarios. Las principales conclusiones del artículo son que los noticiarios que construyen una imagen más equilibrada de la política son los de Televisión Española y Cuatro, mientras que los que construyen una imagen más desequilibrada son los de la Sexta y Canal 9. El porcentaje de noticias dedicadas a la política no depende ni de la titularidad (pública-privada), ni del ámbito de cobertura (estatal-autonómica) del canal. En cambio, sí podemos encontrar una relación en la suma de las noticias de política (political issues) y las de gobernanza (policy issues).

The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

Les respostes de la por

La por a les diferències que exhibeixen els responsables dels atacs a la llengua és probablement molt superior a la nostra por davant aquests mateixos atacs

Distància de seguretat

Segons el temperament de cada persona i l"estrès del moment,una mirada o un gest pot fer que sentim traspassada aquesta distància de seguretat.

Análisis de convergencia de las regiones de la zona euro (1990-2010)

Since the birth of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), policies have been implemented in the Member States of the European Union (EU) to lead them towards economic convergence. This article analyses the convergence of the 174 regions that exist in the 17 euro-zone countries in the years from 1990 to 2010. The article specifies a space-time econometric model using the hypotheses of conditioned beta-convergence and sigmaconvergence. The dependent variables of the model are per capita GDP and productivity and the explanatory variables are real economic variables. Beta-convergence is found to exist between the countries of the euro-zone in terms of per capita GDP, but there is divergence in terms of productivity, though only at country level. In other words, the hypothesis is confirmed that it is guidelines at country level that lead to hypothetical convergence and that the unfavourable performance of productivity is due, without doubt, to differences in behaviour between the active populations of the different euro zone countries

Nicotine-induced antinociception, rewarding effects and physical dependence are decreased in mice lacking the preproenkephalin gene

It has been shown previously that the endogenous opioid system may be involved in the behavioral effects of nicotine. In the present study, the participation of endogenous enkephalins on nicotine responses has been investigated by using preproenkephalin knock-out mice. Acute nicotine-induced hypolocomotion remained unaffected in these mice. In contrast, antinociception elicited in the tail-immersion and hot-plate tests by acute nicotine administration was reduced in mutant animals. The rewarding properties of nicotine were then investigated using the place-conditioning paradigm. Nicotine induced a conditioned place preference in wild-type animals, but this effect was absent in knock-out mice. Accordingly, in vivo microdialysis studies revealed that the enhancement in dopamine extracellular levels in the nucleus accumbens induced by nicotine was also reduced in preproenkephalin-deficient mice. Finally, the somatic expression of the nicotine withdrawal syndrome precipitated in nicotine-dependent mice by mecamylamine was significantly attenuated in mutant animals. In summary, the present results indicate that endogenous opioid peptides derived from preproenkephalin are involved in the antinociceptive and rewarding properties of nicotine and participate in the expression of physical nicotine dependence.

System identification using a linear combination of cumulant slices

In this paper we develop a new linear approach to identify the parameters of a moving average (MA) model from the statistics of the output. First, we show that, under some constraints, the impulse response of the system can be expressed as a linear combination of cumulant slices. Then, thisresult is used to obtain a new well-conditioned linear methodto estimate the MA parameters of a non-Gaussian process. Theproposed method presents several important differences withexisting linear approaches. The linear combination of slices usedto compute the MA parameters can be constructed from dif-ferent sets of cumulants of different orders, providing a generalframework where all the statistics can be combined. Further-more, it is not necessary to use second-order statistics (the autocorrelation slice), and therefore the proposed algorithm stillprovides consistent estimates in the presence of colored Gaussian noise. Another advantage of the method is that while mostlinear methods developed so far give totally erroneous estimates if the order is overestimated, the proposed approach doesnot require a previous estimation of the filter order. The simulation results confirm the good numerical conditioning of thealgorithm and the improvement in performance with respect to existing methods.