'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Financial Integration, Trade Openness and International Transmission

[cat] Com afecten l’obertura comercial i financera a la volatilitat macroeconòmica? La literatura existent, tant empírica com teòrica, no ha assolit encara un consens. Aquest article usa un model microfonamentat de dos països simètrics amb entrada endògena d’empreses per estudiar-ho. L’anàlisis es du a terme per tres règims econòmics diferents amb diferents nivells d’integració internacional: una economia tancada, una autarquia financera i una integració plena. Es consideren diversos nivells d’obertura comercial, en forma de biaix domèstic de la demanda i l’economia pot patir pertorbacions en la productivitat del treball i en innovació. El model conclou que la incertesa macroeconòmica, representada principalment per la volatilitat del consum, la producció i la relació real d’intercanvi internacional, depèn del grau d’obertura i del tipus de pertorbació.

Media, investors and bubbles

We analysed the specific case of how information in the financial press influences economic bubbles. We found considerable flaws in the information market due to several factors: demand, the predominance of what are termed “irrational investors” (herding), and supply, which has the problem that the sources of information are biasedand feeds. A financial bubble is a deviation between real value of a financial asset and its persistent market price in time, which also has a speculative origin fed back by the illusion of the owners of these financial values, who will take benefits because of the future prices, which must be higher than the previous ones. The economical information in the media is submitting three problems. First of all, it is information generated by companies. In second place, the information circuit is fed back. A problem of informative independence becomes created, particularly serious in the case of the banks, which are very were as creditors. And in a third place, some informative biases are manifested for the companies of regulated sectors which are starring the economical information in the media.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Financial Integration, Trade Openness and International Transmission

[cat] Com afecten l’obertura comercial i financera a la volatilitat macroeconòmica? La literatura existent, tant empírica com teòrica, no ha assolit encara un consens. Aquest article usa un model microfonamentat de dos països simètrics amb entrada endògena d’empreses per estudiar-ho. L’anàlisis es du a terme per tres règims econòmics diferents amb diferents nivells d’integració internacional: una economia tancada, una autarquia financera i una integració plena. Es consideren diversos nivells d’obertura comercial, en forma de biaix domèstic de la demanda i l’economia pot patir pertorbacions en la productivitat del treball i en innovació. El model conclou que la incertesa macroeconòmica, representada principalment per la volatilitat del consum, la producció i la relació real d’intercanvi internacional, depèn del grau d’obertura i del tipus de pertorbació.

Risk aversion and embedding bias

In Selten (1967) ?Strategy Method,? the second mover in the game submits a complete strategy. This basic idea has been exported to nonstrategic experiments, where a participant reports a complete list of contingent decisions, one for each situation or state in a given sequence, out of which one and only one state, randomly selected, will be implemented.In general, the method raises the following concern. If S0 and S1 are two differentsequences of states, and state s is in both S0 and S1, would the participant make the same decision in state s when confronted with S0 as when confronted with S1? If not, the experimental results are suspect of suffering from an ?embedding bias.?We check for embedding biases in elicitation methods of Charles Holt and Susan Laury(Laury and Holt, 2000, and Holt and Laury, 2002), and of the present authors (Bosch-Dom?nech and Silvestre, 1999, 2002, 2006a, b) by appropriately chosen replications of the original experiments. We find no evidence of embedding bias in our work. But in Holt and Laury?s method participants tend to switch earlier to the riskier option when later pairs of lotteries are eliminated from the sequence, suggesting the presence of some embedding bias.

The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

The role of causal links in performance measurement models

Abstract Purpose: Several well-known managerial accounting performance measurement models rely on causal assumptions. Whilst users of the models express satisfaction and link them with improved organizational performance, academic research, of the realworld applications, shows few reliable statistical associations. This paper provides a discussion on the"problematic" of causality in a performance measurement setting. Design/methodology/approach: This is a conceptual study based on an analysis and synthesis of the literature from managerial accounting, organizational theory, strategic management and social scientific causal modelling. Findings: The analysis indicates that dynamic, complex and uncertain environments may challenge any reliance upon valid causal models. Due to cognitive limitations and judgmental biases, managers may fail to trace correct cause-and-effect understanding of the value creation in their organizations. However, even lacking this validity, causal models can support strategic learning and perform as organizational guides if they are able to mobilize managerial action. Research limitations/implications: Future research should highlight the characteristics necessary for elaboration of convincing and appealing causal models and the social process of their construction. Practical implications: Managers of organizations using causal models should be clear on the purposes of their particular models and their limitations. In particular, difficulties are observed in specifying detailed cause and effect relations and their potential for communicating and directing attention. They should therefore construct their models to suit the particular purpose envisaged. Originality/value: This paper provides an interdisciplinary and holistic view on the issue of causality in managerial accounting models.

A role of Eye Vergence in Covert Attention

Covert spatial attention produces biases in perceptual and neural responses in the absence of overt orienting movements. The neural mechanism that gives rise to these effects is poorly understood. Here we report the relation between fixational eye movements, namely eye vergence, and covert attention. Visual stimuli modulate the angle of eye vergence as a function of their ability to capture attention. This illustrates the relation between eye vergence and bottom-up attention. In visual and auditory cue/no-cue paradigms, the angle of vergence is greater in the cue condition than in the no-cue condition. This shows a top-down attention component. In conclusion, observations reveal a close link between covert attention and modulation in eye vergence during eye fixation. Our study suggests a basis for the use of eye vergence as a tool for measuring attention and may provide new insights into attention and perceptual disorders.

Sex Reversal in Zebrafish fancl Mutants is Caused by Tp53-Mediated Germ Cell Apoptosis

The molecular genetic mechanisms of sex determination are not known for most vertebrates, including zebrafish. We identified a mutation in the zebrafish fancl gene that causes homozygous mutants to develop as fertile males due to female-to-male sex reversal. Fancl is a member of the Fanconi Anemia/BRCA DNA repair pathway. Experiments showed that zebrafish fancl was expressed in developing germ cells in bipotential gonads at the critical time of sexual fate determination. Caspase-3 immunoassays revealed increased germ cell apoptosis in fancl mutants that compromised oocyte survival. In the absence of oocytes surviving through meiosis, somatic cells of mutant gonads did not maintain expression of the ovary gene cyp19a1a and did not down-regulate expression of the early testis gene amh; consequently, gonads masculinized and became testes. Remarkably, results showed that the introduction of a tp53 (p53) mutation into fancl mutants rescued the sex-reversal phenotype by reducing germ cell apoptosis and, thus, allowed fancl mutants to become fertile females. Our results show that Fancl function is not essential for spermatogonia and oogonia to become sperm or mature oocytes, but instead suggest that Fancl function is involved in the survival of developing oocytes through meiosis. This work reveals that Tp53-mediated germ cell apoptosis induces sex reversal after the mutation of a DNA-repair pathway gene by compromising the survival of oocytes and suggests the existence of an oocyte-derived signal that biases gonad fate towards the female developmental pathway and thereby controls zebrafish sex determination.

Understanding Flood Regime Changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.

Local noise analysis of a Schottky contact: combined thermionic-emissiondiffusion theory

A theoretical model for the noise properties of Schottky barrier diodes in the framework of the thermionic-emission¿diffusion theory is presented. The theory incorporates both the noise inducedby the diffusion of carriers through the semiconductor and the noise induced by the thermionicemission of carriers across the metal¿semiconductor interface. Closed analytical formulas arederived for the junction resistance, series resistance, and contributions to the net noise localized indifferent space regions of the diode, all valid in the whole range of applied biases. An additionalcontribution to the voltage-noise spectral density is identified, whose origin may be traced back tothe cross correlation between the voltage-noise sources associated with the junction resistance andthose for the series resistance. It is argued that an inclusion of the cross-correlation term as a newelement in the existing equivalent circuit models of Schottky diodes could explain the discrepanciesbetween these models and experimental measurements or Monte Carlo simulations.

Local noise analysis of a Schottky contact: combined thermionic-emissiondiffusion theory

A theoretical model for the noise properties of Schottky barrier diodes in the framework of the thermionic-emission¿diffusion theory is presented. The theory incorporates both the noise inducedby the diffusion of carriers through the semiconductor and the noise induced by the thermionicemission of carriers across the metal¿semiconductor interface. Closed analytical formulas arederived for the junction resistance, series resistance, and contributions to the net noise localized indifferent space regions of the diode, all valid in the whole range of applied biases. An additionalcontribution to the voltage-noise spectral density is identified, whose origin may be traced back tothe cross correlation between the voltage-noise sources associated with the junction resistance andthose for the series resistance. It is argued that an inclusion of the cross-correlation term as a newelement in the existing equivalent circuit models of Schottky diodes could explain the discrepanciesbetween these models and experimental measurements or Monte Carlo simulations.

Self-consistent theory of current and voltage noise in multimode ballistic conductors

Electron transport in a self-consistent potential along a ballistic two-terminal conductor has been investigated. We have derived general formulas which describe the nonlinear current-voltage characteristics, differential conductance, and low-frequency current and voltage noise assuming an arbitrary distribution function and correlation properties of injected electrons. The analytical results have been obtained for a wide range of biases: from equilibrium to high values beyond the linear-response regime. The particular case of a three-dimensional Fermi-Dirac injection has been analyzed. We show that the Coulomb correlations are manifested in the negative excess voltage noise, i.e., the voltage fluctuations under high-field transport conditions can be less than in equilibrium.

Rhizodeposition of organic carbon by plants with contrasting traits for resource acquisition: responses to different fertility regimes

Background and aims Rhizodeposition plays an important role in mediating soil nutrient availability in ecosystems. However, owing to methodological difficulties (i.e., narrow zone of soil around roots, rapid assimilation by soil microbes) fertility-induced changes in rhizodeposition remain mostly unknown. Methods We developed a novel long-term continuous 13C labelling method to address the effects of two levels of nitrogen (N) fertilization on rhizodeposited carbon (C) by species with different nutrient acquisition strategies. Results Fertility-induced changes in rhizodeposition were modulated by root responses to N availability rather than by changes in soil microbial biomass. Differences among species were mostly related to plant biomass: species with higher total leaf and root biomass also had higher total rhizodeposited C, whereas species with lower root biomass had higher specific rhizodeposited C (per gram root mass). Experimental controls demonstrated that most of the biases commonly associated with this type of experiment (i.e., long-term steady-state labelling) were avoided using our methodological approach. Conclusions These results suggest that the amount of rhizodeposited C from plants grown under different levels of N were driven mainly by plant biomass and root morphology rather than microbial biomass. They also underline the importance of plant characteristics (i.e., biomass allocation) as opposed to traits associated with plant resource acquisition strategies in predicting total C rhizodeposition.