Decreasing fires in a Mediterranean region (1970-2010, NE Spain)

We analyse the recent evolution of fires in Catalonia (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula), a typical Mediterranean region. We examine a homogeneous series of forest fires in the period 1970-2010. During this period, more than 9000 fire events greater than 0.5 ha were recorded, and the total burned area was more than 400 kha. Our analysis shows that both the burned area and number of fire series display a decreasing trend. Superposed onto this general decrease, strong oscillations on shorter time scales are evident. After the large fires of 1986 and 1994, the increased effort in fire prevention and suppression could explain part of the decreasing trend. Although it is often stated that fires have increased in Mediterranean regions, the higher efficiency in fire detection could have led to spurious trends and misleading conclusions.

Plasma homocysteine and vitamin B12 serum levels, red blood cell folate concentrations, C677T methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene mutation and risk of recurrent miscarriage: a case-control study in Spain.

Background: Hyperhomocysteinemia and methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene mutation have been postulated as a possible cause of recurrent miscarriage (RM). There is a wide variation in the prevalence of MTHFR polymorphisms and homocysteine (Hcy) plasma levels among populations around the world. The present study was undertaken to investigate the possible association between hyperhomocysteinemia and its causative genetic or acquired factors and RM in Catalonia, a Mediterranean region in Spain. Methods: Sixty consecutive patients with ≥ 3 unexplained RM and 30 healthy control women having at least one child but no previous miscarriage were included. Plasma Hcy levels, MTHFR gene mutation, red blood cell (RBC) folate and vitamin B12 serum levels were measured in all subjects. Results: No significant differences were observed neither in plasma Hcy levels, RBC folate and vitamin B12 serum levels nor in the prevalence of homozygous and heterozygous MTHFR gene mutation between the two groups studied. Conclusions: In the present study RM is not associated with hyperhomocysteinemia, and/or the MTHFR gene mutation.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

The Hercynian intrusive rocks of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges (NE Spain).

The hercynian outcrops of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges (NE Spain) consist mainly of Lower Permian-Upper Carboniferous, post-tectonic, epizona1 granitoid intrusions which form a typical applutonic calc-alkaline suite ranging from mafic hornblende gabbros and ultramafic olivine homblendites throught on alites and granodioritcs to leucogranites. This suite displays major andtrace-element characteristics and Sr isotope ratios similar to volcanic arc and post-collision magmatism oceanic lithosphere and to have been modified by contamination and is therefore believed to have formed above subducted with melts from the crust

Estimating the Ontogenetic Status of an Enantiornithine Bird from the Lower Barremian of El Montsec, Central Pyrenees, Spain.

An Enantiornithes specimen from El Montsec was initially described as an immature individual based upon qualitative traits such as its relatively large orbit and overall proportions of the skull and the postcranium. In this study we re-evaluate the precise determination of the ontogenetic stage of this individual, establishing a cross-talk among taphonomic, anatomic, and morphometric data. The exceptional preservation of the specimen has allowed pondering ontogenetic influence versus preservational bias in features like the external patterns of bone surfaces, instead of being aprioristically considered due to taphonomic alterations only. The rough texture of the periosteal bone associated with pores in the distal, proximal and mid-shaft areas of the humeral shaft, indicates a subadult stage when compared with long bones of modern birds. Forelimb proportions of embryo and juvenile Enanthiornithes are equivalent to those of adult individuals of other taxa within this clade, though this is not a reliable criterion for establishing a precise ontogenetic stage. The El Montsec specimen may be attributed a close adulthood, yet only if growth regimes in Enantiornithes are considered equivalent to those in Neornithes birds.

Una aproximación a la evolución de la ciencia regional en España a través de las contribuciones a las Reuniones de Estudios Regionales (1973-2004)

This paper presents a bibliometric analysis of the contributions that have been presented to the 30 Spanish Regional Studies Meetings which have been hold since 1973. Firstly, the paper displays rankings of the authors and institutions that have participated more actively in the Meetings. Secondly, the paper analyses the main changes in the objectives, topics and research techniques of the contributions, as well as in the scientific specialisation of their authors. This analysis allows drawing some conclusions on the evolution of Regional Science in Spain throughout the last 30 years.

Community structure and water quality in Mediterranean streams of a Natural Park (Sant Llorenç del Munt, NE Spain)

Se estudian las comunidades de macroinvertebrados de los ríos del Parque Natural de Sant Llorenç del Munt i la Serra de l'Obac (Barcelona, NE España) y su relación con las condiciones de flujo de los ríos. Hasta 78 localidades se visitaron en dos ocasiones (invierno y verano de 1996) y en 26 de ellas se tomaron muestras de macroinvertebrados. Mientras en invierno el 63 % de los kilÛmetros investigados tenía flujo continuo y menos del 1% estaba seco, en verano solo el 26% tenía flujo continuo, un 20% estaba totalmente seco y el resto presentaba pozas en su lecho. A pesar de ello el número de familias de macroinvertebrados fue de 54 en invierno y 94 en verano, siendo dominantes en este último caso los heterópteros, coleópteros, odonatos y dípteros, mientras que en invierno los tricópteros y plecópteros eran más diversos. En general, la comunidad presentó una estrategia trófica recolectora aunque la proporción de los ramoneadores y depredadores aumentó en verano. El estudio de las comunidades mediante el análisis de su abundancia en los dos perÌodos, mostró que las variables temporales (flujo, temperatura) o las relacionadas con el incremento de la producciÛn primaria (oxÌgeno, pH) explicaban la mayor parte de la variabilidad con los elementos mas reófilos propios de invierno y los leníticos de verano, mientras que otros factores fisicoquímicos no eran relevantes. Calculado el índice biológico BMWP' se demostró que los valores en verano eran superiores o similares a los de invierno lo que se explica por la mayor diversidad aunque la calificaciÛn individual de cada una de las familias encontradas en verano fuera menor que las halladas en invierno.

Evaluating the Performance of a Regional-Scale Photochemical Modelling System: Part I Ozone Predictions

We present a detailed evaluation of the seasonal performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system and the PSU/NCAR meteorological model coupled to a new Numerical Emission Model for Air Quality (MNEQA). The combined system simulates air quality at a fine resolution (3 km as horizontal resolution and 1 h as temporal resolution) in north-eastern Spain, where problems of ozone pollution are frequent. An extensive database compiled over two periods, from May to September 2009 and 2010, is used to evaluate meteorological simulations and chemical outputs. Our results indicate that the model accurately reproduces hourly and 1-h and 8-h maximum ozone surface concentrations measured at the air quality stations, as statistical values fall within the EPA and EU recommendations. However, to further improve forecast accuracy, three simple bias-adjustment techniques mean subtraction (MS), ratio adjustment (RA), and hybrid forecast (HF) based on 10 days of available comparisons are applied. The results show that the MS technique performed better than RA or HF, although all the bias-adjustment techniques significantly reduce the systematic errors in ozone forecasts.

Polymorphisms in DNA-repair genes in a cohort of prostate cancer patients from different areas in Spain: heterogeneity between populations as a confounding factor in association studies

Background: Differences in the distribution of genotypes between individuals of the same ethnicity are an important confounder factor commonly undervalued in typical association studies conducted in radiogenomics. Objective: To evaluate the genotypic distribution of SNPs in a wide set of Spanish prostate cancer patients for determine the homogeneity of the population and to disclose potential bias. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 601 prostate cancer patients from Andalusia, Basque Country, Canary and Catalonia were genotyped for 10 SNPs located in 6 different genes associated to DNA repair: XRCC1 (rs25487, rs25489, rs1799782), ERCC2 (rs13181), ERCC1 (rs11615), LIG4 (rs1805388, rs1805386), ATM (rs17503908, rs1800057) and P53 (rs1042522). The SNP genotyping was made in a Biotrove OpenArrayH NT Cycler. Outcome Measurements and Statistical Analysis: Comparisons of genotypic and allelic frequencies among populations, as well as haplotype analyses were determined using the web-based environment SNPator. Principal component analysis was made using the SnpMatrix and XSnpMatrix classes and methods implemented as an R package. Non-supervised hierarchical cluster of SNP was made using MultiExperiment Viewer. Results and Limitations: We observed that genotype distribution of 4 out 10 SNPs was statistically different among the studied populations, showing the greatest differences between Andalusia and Catalonia. These observations were confirmed in cluster analysis, principal component analysis and in the differential distribution of haplotypes among the populations. Because tumor characteristics have not been taken into account, it is possible that some polymorphisms may influence tumor characteristics in the same way that it may pose a risk factor for other disease characteristics. Conclusion: Differences in distribution of genotypes within different populations of the same ethnicity could be an important confounding factor responsible for the lack of validation of SNPs associated with radiation-induced toxicity, especially when extensive meta-analysis with subjects from different countries are carried out.

Canvis ambientals i modelació antròpica del territori entre l'època ibèrica i l'alt medieval a Catalunya: aportacions de la palinologia

[spa] En los últimos años ha aumentado el interés arqueológico por los cambios territoriales de época histórica. Asimismo, el número de registros polínicos ha aumentado sensiblemente. A pesar de que la falta de marcos cronológicos fiables impone límites a las interpretaciones sobre antropización, el presente artículo pretende realizar una síntesis de los cambios paleoambientales documentados entre los siglos VIII aC y XII dC, haciendo especial referencia a las transformaciones humanas del entorno. Este conjunto de datos polínicos hace evidente una intervención humana al inicio del periodo ibérico, presión que se intensifica durante el iberismo Pleno con la expansión de actividades agrícolas. El mundo romano significa una explotación del espacio menos extensiva, si bien el el siglo VII dC se produce una extensión de los pastos tanto en sectores elevados del Pirineo como de litoral catalán que modifica profundamente el paisaje. [eng] The archaeological interest on the environmental changes during historical times has increased during the last decades. In accordance, a number of palynological from NE Spain records has been recently published. Despite chronological frame works are not yet enough reliable, this paper proposes a synthesis of landscape changes from VIIIth century BC to XIIth century AD. Palynological data suggest the presence of human impacts at ghe beginning of iberic times. Humans pressure, mainly farmning activities, intensified during iberian times. Roman times record a less extensive land use but at the IVth century AD, grazing expanded at regional scale. Pastures expanded again at VIIth century AD, reaching high altitudes in the Pyrenees while at littoral plains, meadows were used for grazing. This period resulted in a deep change of the Catalan lansacapes.

Neotectonic features in the Catalan Coastal Ranges, Northeastern Spain

The Catalan Coastal Ranges constitute the northwestem emerged sector of the Catalan-Valencian domain of the Valencia trough. Since late Oligocene this domain of the Valencia trough was subjected to extension wich gradually attenuated during later periods. The Miocene tectonic evolution of the Catalan Coastal Ranges is relativelly well known while the Pliocene to-Quaternary stages have not been studied in detail. The recorded seismicity of the area is moderate and constant but not sufficiently intense to cliaracterize and locate recent tectonics. However, geological analysis provides further information. A morphotectonic and deformational analysis of the Catalan Coastal Ranges is presented in this paper.

Lifestyle of the Elderly Receiving Home Care in Spain

The aim of this study is to examine the lifestyle characteristics and health status of the elderly in order to identify aspects that might help promote active ageing. Participants were 26 elderly citizens aged 75 or over who were the recipients of home care services in Vilafranca del Penedès (Barcelona, Spain). They were recruited by means of convenience sampling, and a case study approach was adopted. Fieldwork was conducted in April 2007, with a specially designed questionnaire administered in the context of an in-depth interview. Quantitative data were analyzed with SPSS 15, while qualitative data were analysed and grouped by category. The results indicated that 53.8% of the elderly interviewees perceived their health status as being regular, most did not have adequate nutrition and hydration, while 42.3% had chewing problems and 65.3% presented slight dependence. Most of them received visits at home, but did not go on leisure outings. The only exercise they took was walking. These findings highlight the need to promote and strengthen activities for healthy ageing, and to ensure that people over 75 receive adequate care. Programmes should be implemented to improve those aspects that are currently under-addressed.

Lifestyle of the Elderly Receiving Home Care in Spain

The aim of this study is to examine the lifestyle characteristics and health status of the elderly in order to identify aspects that might help promote active ageing. Participants were 26 elderly citizens aged 75 or over who were the recipients of home care services in Vilafranca del Penedès (Barcelona, Spain). They were recruited by means of convenience sampling, and a case study approach was adopted. Fieldwork was conducted in April 2007, with a specially designed questionnaire administered in the context of an in-depth interview. Quantitative data were analyzed with SPSS 15, while qualitative data were analysed and grouped by category. The results indicated that 53.8% of the elderly interviewees perceived their health status as being regular, most did not have adequate nutrition and hydration, while 42.3% had chewing problems and 65.3% presented slight dependence. Most of them received visits at home, but did not go on leisure outings. The only exercise they took was walking. These findings highlight the need to promote and strengthen activities for healthy ageing, and to ensure that people over 75 receive adequate care. Programmes should be implemented to improve those aspects that are currently under-addressed.

Lifestyle of the Elderly Receiving Home Care in Spain

The aim of this study is to examine the lifestyle characteristics and health status of the elderly in order to identify aspects that might help promote active ageing. Participants were 26 elderly citizens aged 75 or over who were the recipients of home care services in Vilafranca del Penedès (Barcelona, Spain). They were recruited by means of convenience sampling, and a case study approach was adopted. Fieldwork was conducted in April 2007, with a specially designed questionnaire administered in the context of an in-depth interview. Quantitative data were analyzed with SPSS 15, while qualitative data were analysed and grouped by category. The results indicated that 53.8% of the elderly interviewees perceived their health status as being regular, most did not have adequate nutrition and hydration, while 42.3% had chewing problems and 65.3% presented slight dependence. Most of them received visits at home, but did not go on leisure outings. The only exercise they took was walking. These findings highlight the need to promote and strengthen activities for healthy ageing, and to ensure that people over 75 receive adequate care. Programmes should be implemented to improve those aspects that are currently under-addressed.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29 PER CENT, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90 PER CENT on Saturdays, 4.29 PER CENT on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45 PER CENT) than for women (0.64 PER CENT) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62 PER CENT, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84 PER CENT, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.