Regional value added in Italy over the long run (1891-2001): linking indirect estimates with official figures, and implications

This paper presents value added estimates for the Italian regions, in benchmark years from 1891 until 1951, which are linked to those from official figures available from 1971 in order to offer a long-term picture. Sources and methodology are documented and discussed, whilst regional activity rates and productivity are also presented and compared. Thus some questions are briefly reconsidered: the origins and extent of the north-south divide, the role of migration and regional policy in shaping the pattern of regional inequality, the importance of social capital, and the positioning of Italy in the international debate on regional convergence, where it stands out for the long run persistence of its disparities.

On the stability of the optimal value and the optimal set in optimization problems

The paper develops a stability theory for the optimal value and the optimal set mapping of optimization problems posed in a Banach space. The problems considered in this paper have an arbitrary number of inequality constraints involving lower semicontinuous (not necessarily convex) functions and one closed abstract constraint set. The considered perturbations lead to problems of the same type as the nominal one (with the same space of variables and the same number of constraints), where the abstract constraint set can also be perturbed. The spaces of functions involved in the problems (objective and constraints) are equipped with the metric of the uniform convergence on the bounded sets, meanwhile in the space of closed sets we consider, coherently, the Attouch-Wets topology. The paper examines, in a unified way, the lower and upper semicontinuity of the optimal value function, and the closedness, lower and upper semicontinuity (in the sense of Berge) of the optimal set mapping. This paper can be seen as a second part of the stability theory presented in [17], where we studied the stability of the feasible set mapping (completed here with the analysis of the Lipschitz-like property).

Haar wavelets-based approach for quantifying credit portfolio losses

This paper proposes a new methodology to compute Value at Risk (VaR) for quantifying losses in credit portfolios. We approximate the cumulative distribution of the loss function by a finite combination of Haar wavelet basis functions and calculate the coefficients of the approximation by inverting its Laplace transform. The Wavelet Approximation (WA) method is specially suitable for non-smooth distributions, often arising in small or concentrated portfolios, when the hypothesis of the Basel II formulas are violated. To test the methodology we consider the Vasicek one-factor portfolio credit loss model as our model framework. WA is an accurate, robust and fast method, allowing to estimate VaR much more quickly than with a Monte Carlo (MC) method at the same level of accuracy and reliability.

Pork Value Chains: A Comparison of Catalonia, Spain and Manitoba, Canada

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of pork value chains in Catalonia, Spain and Manitoba, Canada. Intensive hog production models were implemented in Catalonia in the 1960s as a result of agriculture crises and fostered by feedstuffs factories. The expansion of the hog sector in Manitoba is more recent (in the 1990s) and brought about in large part by the opening of the Maple Leaf Meats processing plant in Brandon, Manitoba. This plant is capable of processing 90,000 hogs per week. Both hog production models ‐ the ‘older’ one in Catalonia (Spain) and the ‘newer’ in Manitoba‐ have been, until recently, examples of success. Inventories and production have been increasing substantially and both regions have proven to have great export potential. Recently, however, tensions have been developing with the hog production models of both regions, particularly as they relate to environmental concerns. The purpose of the paper is to compare the value chains with respect to their origins (e.g. supply a growing demand for pork, ensure farm profitability) and present states (e.g. environmental concerns, profitability). Keywords: pork value chain, hog farms, agri‐food studies. JEL: Q10, Q13, O57

The Value of Imperfection : the Wabi-Sabi Principle in Aesthetics and Learning

OER-based learning has the potential to overcome many shortcomings and problems of traditional education. It is not hampered by IP restrictions; can depend on collaborative, cumulative, iterative refinement of resources; and the digital form provides unprecedented flexibility with respect to configuration and delivery. The OER community is a progressive group of educators and learners with decades of learning research to draw from, who know that we must prepare learners for an evolving and diverse reality. Despite this OER tends to replicate the unsuccessful characteristics of traditional education. To remedy this we may need to remember the importance of imperfection, mistakes, problems, disagreement, and the incomplete for engaged learning, and relinquish our notions of perfection, acknowledging that learners learn differently and we need diverse learners. We must stretch our perceptions of quality and provide mechanisms for engaging the incredible pool of educators globally to fulfill the promise of inclusive education.

Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

The Strategic value of European renewable energy promotion policy

Encara falta per fer possible una transformació estratègica d'Europa del sistema d'energia, però el que és de la mateixa importància com a objectius a llarg termini de la FER i Reduccions de GEH són vinculants i forts objectius d'eficiència energètica, no només per 2020, però també per al 2030, 2040 i 2050, com aquesta força ajudaria a fixar l'augment de les energies renovables en el total d'energia consum i per reduir el total Emissions de GEH d'Europa en general, i les del sector de l'energia en particular, encara sent un dels majors emissors de gasos d'efecte hivernacle de tots els sectors. La refosa Directiva, prevista per 2011/12 ha de ser un bones finestres d'oportunitat per finalment establir objectius vinculants d'eficiència energètica, l'únic pilar que encara falta en la força energia interdependents i estratègia sobre el clima de la UE, basat en la reducció de gasos d'efecte hivernacle i i l'eficiència energètica.

Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

When zero doesn't mean it and other geomathematical mischief

There is almost not a case in exploration geology, where the studied data doesn’tincludes below detection limits and/or zero values, and since most of the geological dataresponds to lognormal distributions, these “zero data” represent a mathematicalchallenge for the interpretation.We need to start by recognizing that there are zero values in geology. For example theamount of quartz in a foyaite (nepheline syenite) is zero, since quartz cannot co-existswith nepheline. Another common essential zero is a North azimuth, however we canalways change that zero for the value of 360°. These are known as “Essential zeros”, butwhat can we do with “Rounded zeros” that are the result of below the detection limit ofthe equipment?Amalgamation, e.g. adding Na2O and K2O, as total alkalis is a solution, but sometimeswe need to differentiate between a sodic and a potassic alteration. Pre-classification intogroups requires a good knowledge of the distribution of the data and the geochemicalcharacteristics of the groups which is not always available. Considering the zero valuesequal to the limit of detection of the used equipment will generate spuriousdistributions, especially in ternary diagrams. Same situation will occur if we replace thezero values by a small amount using non-parametric or parametric techniques(imputation).The method that we are proposing takes into consideration the well known relationshipsbetween some elements. For example, in copper porphyry deposits, there is always agood direct correlation between the copper values and the molybdenum ones, but whilecopper will always be above the limit of detection, many of the molybdenum values willbe “rounded zeros”. So, we will take the lower quartile of the real molybdenum valuesand establish a regression equation with copper, and then we will estimate the“rounded” zero values of molybdenum by their corresponding copper values.The method could be applied to any type of data, provided we establish first theircorrelation dependency.One of the main advantages of this method is that we do not obtain a fixed value for the“rounded zeros”, but one that depends on the value of the other variable.Key words: compositional data analysis, treatment of zeros, essential zeros, roundedzeros, correlation dependency

A two-stage approach for tonic identification in indian art music

In this paper we propose a new approach for tonic identification in Indian art music and present a proposal for acomplete iterative system for the same. Our method splits the task of tonic pitch identification into two stages. In the first stage, which is applicable to both vocal and instrumental music, we perform a multi-pitch analysis of the audio signal to identify the tonic pitch-class. Multi-pitch analysisallows us to take advantage of the drone sound, which constantlyreinforces the tonic. In the second stage we estimate the octave in which the tonic of the singer lies and is thusneeded only for the vocal performances. We analyse the predominant melody sung by the lead performer in order to establish the tonic octave. Both stages are individually evaluated on a sizable music collection and are shown toobtain a good accuracy. We also discuss the types of errors made by the method.Further, we present a proposal for a system that aims to incrementally utilize all the available data, both audio and metadata in order to identify the tonic pitch. It produces a tonic estimate and a confidence value, and is iterative in nature. At each iteration, more data is fed into the systemuntil the confidence value for the identified tonic is above a defined threshold. Rather than obtain high overall accuracy for our complete database, ultimately our goal is to develop a system which obtains very high accuracy on a subset of the database with maximum confidence.

What is the value of joint processing of pilots and data in block-fading channels?

The spectral efficiency achievable with joint processing of pilot and data symbol observations is compared with that achievable through the conventional (separate) approach of first estimating the channel on the basis of the pilot symbols alone, and subsequently detecting the datasymbols. Studied on the basis of a mutual information lower bound, joint processing is found to provide a non-negligible advantage relative to separate processing, particularly for fast fading. It is shown that, regardless of the fading rate, only a very small number of pilot symbols (at most one per transmit antenna and per channel coherence interval) shouldbe transmitted if joint processing is allowed.

Book vs. Fair Value Accounting in Banking, and Intertemporal Smoothing

The aim of this paper is to examine the pros and cons of book and fair value accounting from the perspective of the theory of banking. We consider the implications of the two accounting methods in an overlapping generations environment. As observed by Allen and Gale(1997), in an overlapping generation model, banks have a role as intergenerational connectors as they allow for intertemporal smoothing. Our main result is that when dividends depend on profits, book value ex ante dominates fair value, as it provides better intertemporal smoothing. This is in contrast with the standard view that states that, fair value yields a better allocation as it reflects the real opportunity cost of assets. Banking regulation play an important role by providing the right incentives for banks to smooth intertemporal consumption whereas market discipline improves intratemporal efficiency.

Ecologies of Value in a Wall Street Trading Room

Our task in this paper is to analyze the organization of trading in the era of quantitative finance. To do so, we conduct an ethnography of arbitrage, the trading strategy that best exemplifies finance in the wake of the quantitative revolution. In contrast to value and momentum investing, we argue, arbitrage involves an art of association-the construction of equivalence (comparability) of properties across different assets. In place of essential or relational characteristics, the peculiar valuation that takes place in arbitrage is based on an operation that makes something the measure of something else-associating securities to each other. The process of recognizing opportunities and the practices of making novel associations are shaped by the specific socio-spatial and socio-technical configurations of the trading room. Calculation is distributed across persons and instruments as the trading room organizes interaction among diverse principles of valuation.

Weak and Strong Altruism in Trait Groups: Reproductive Suicide, Personal Fitness, and Expected Value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as the mechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductive suicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness while augmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingent suicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphic with a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition to contingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibit continuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usually thought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however, support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs before life history events associated with effective altruism; reproductive suicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu West Eberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuously expressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpreted as probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, without benefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive" suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter space relative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

A subsampling approach to estimating the distribution of diversing statistics with application to assessing financial market risks

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution ofstatistics diverging at either known rates when the underlying timeseries in strictly stationary abd strong mixing. Based on our results weprovide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statisticswith dependent data and present two applications to assessing financialmarket risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk andprovides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizingSafety First portofolio selection.