Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

An ordinal shapley value for economic environments

We propose a new solution concept to address the problem of sharing a surplus among the agents generating it. The sharing problem is formulated in the preferences-endowments space. The solution is defined in a recursive manner incorporating notions of consistency and fairness and relying on properties satisfied by the Shapley value for Transferable Utility (TU) games. We show a solution exists, and refer to it as an Ordinal Shapley value (OSV). The OSV associates with each problem an allocation as well as a matrix of concessions ``measuring'' the gains each agent foregoes in favor of the other agents. We analyze the structure of the concessions, and show they are unique and symmetric. Next we characterize the OSV using the notion of coalitional dividends, and furthermore show it is monotone in an agent's initial endowments and satisfies anonymity. Finally, similarly to the weighted Shapley value for TU games, we construct a weighted OSV as well.

Limitations and biases of conventional analysis of climate change. Towards an analysis coherent with sustainable development

This paper shows the numerous problems of conventional economic analysis in the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies. The article points out the many limitations, omissions, and the arbitrariness that have characterized most evaluation models applied up until now. These shortcomings, in an almost overwhelming way, have biased the result towards the recommendation of a lower aggressiveness of emission mitigation policies. Consequently, this paper questions whether these results provide an appropriate answer to the problem. Finally, various points that an analysis coherent with sustainable development should take into account are presented.

Inequality in CO2 emissions across countries and its relationship with income inequality: a distributive approach

This paper analyses the inequality in CO2 emissions across countries (and groups of countries) and the relationship of this inequality with income inequality across countries for the period (1971-1999). The research employs the tools that are usually applied in income distribution analysis. The methodology used here gives qualitative and quantitative information on some of the features of the inequalities across countries that are considered most relevant for the design and discussion of policies aimed at mitigating climate change. The paper studies the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP and shows that income inequality across countries has been followed by an important inequality in the distribution of emissions. This inequality has diminished mildly, although the inequality in emissions across countries ordered in the increasing value of income (inequality between rich and poor countries) has diminished less than the “simple” inequality in emissions. Lastly, the paper shows that the inequality in CO2 emissions is mostly explained by the inequality between groups with different per capita income level. The importance of the inequality within groups of similar per capita income is much lower and has diminished during the period, especially in the low-middle income group.

Globalization and Europeanization: Analysing Change

The main motivation for exploring the relationship between globalization and Europeanization is the understanding of the importance of exogenous factors for policy change at the domestic level. Can we distinguish the impact of Europeanization to that of globalization? What is the relationship between globalization and Europeanization and what can we learn about the impact of the two phenomena upon political institutions, public policies, identities and values of EU member-states? Can we distinguish the traces of globalization to those of Europeanization upon the domestic level? The paper draws upon International Relations and International Political Economy theories of globalization as well as upon the Europeanization literature. Both phenomena are multi-dimensional and in order to assess their impact and their relationship three dimensions are explored: political institutions, public policies and values and identities. It is concluded that the two phenomena are interwoven and that there is no antithetical relationship between them. Their core is similar, based on the values of neo-liberalism, representative democracy and open market economy.

Thickening of phase change materials (PCM) to avoid segregation

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a Çukurova University, Turquia, al juliol del 2006. L’emmagatzematge d’energia tèrmica ha atret interès en aplicacions tèrmiques com l’aigua calenta, la calefacció i l’aire condicionat. Aquests sistemes són útils per corregir la no coincidència entre la oferta i la demanda d’energia. Principalment hi ha dos tipus de sistemes d’emmagatzematge d’energia tèrmica, emmagatzematge amb calor sensible i amb calor latent. L’emmagatzematge amb calor latent és particularment atractiu degut a la seva habilitat de donar una densitat d’emmagatzematge d’energia més alt i la seva característica d’emmagatzemar calor a una temperatura constant corresponent a la temperatura de transició de fase de la substància emmagatzemadora de calor. Les salts hidratades orgàniques tenen certes avantatges com a materials d’emmagatzematge de calor latent sobre els materials orgànics. En canvi, quan les salts hidratades s’utilitzen com a materials de canvi de fase (PCM) apareixen alguns problemes en les aplicacions d’emmagatzematge de calor latent. Aquests són el subrefredament de les salts hidratades quan es congelen degut a les seves dèbils propietats de nucleació, i la separació de fase que hi apareix degut a una fusió incongruent. En aquest estudi, s’estabilitza sal de Glauber (Na2SO4.10H2O) amb diferents concentracions de poliacrilamida i gelatina per prevenir la fusió incongruent. Per prevenir el subrefredament s’utilitza un agent nucleant amb una estructura cristal•lina semblant a la de la sal de Glauber. La capacitat d’emmagatzematge de calor de les mostres de PCM estabilitzades amb diferents concentracions de gels polimèrics es determinen amb DCS i amb el mètode T-history.

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

North-South trade and directed technical change

In a world where poor countries provide weak protection for intellectual property rights (IPRs), market integration shifts technical change in favor of rich nations. Through this channel, free trade may amplify international income differences. At the same time, integration with countries where IPRs are weakly protected can slow down the world growth rate. An important implication of these results is that protection of intellectual property is most beneficial in open countries. This prediction, which is novel in the literature, is consistent with evidence from a panel of 53 countries observed in the years 1965-1990. The paper also provides empirical support for the mechanism linking North-South trade to the direction of technical change: an increase in import penetration from low-wage, low-IPRs, countries is followed by a sharp fall in R&D investment in a panel of US manufacturing sectors.

El Procés de la certificació energètica per edificació existent

Arran d’una part de la transposició a l’Estat espanyol de la Directiva 2002/91/CE sobre Eficiència Energètica d’Edificis mitjançant el Real Decret 47/2007, pel que s’aprova el Procediment bàsic per la certificació d’eficiència energètica d’edificis de nova construcció, la certificació energètica esdevé obligatòria per edificació nova, i es dóna de termini fins a 2009 per a l’obligatorietat en edificació existent. És en aquest buit de l’edificació existent on es presenta l’objectiu de l’estudi, que és precisament augmentar el coneixement i canvi d’actitud dels agents de l’habitatge social sobre solucions de la rehabilitació des d’una perspectiva de sostenibilitat ambiental, en el context de la certificació energètica per obra nova. Després d’un intens treball de recerca de dades, s’aplicà en un cas pràctic d’habitatge social la nova directiva sobre certificació energètica de l’edificació amb les eines oficials existents. S’aconseguí fer una avaluació energètica d’un habitatge com a eina de gestió per la definició d’estratègies, i solucions ambientals per aconseguir així una major eficiència dels mateixos. D’aquesta manera, s’ha demostrat el valor afegit de la certificació energètica, i les dades obtingudes de les diferents certificacions realitzades podran ajudar a desenvolupar eines i estratègies integrades d’aplicació de millores energètiques a nivell del parc d’edificis existent.

Explaining Variation in Organizational Change: The Reform of Human Resource Management in the European Commission and the OECD

In this article we investigate the reforms of human resource management in the European Commission and the OECD by analyzing comparatively to what extent both organizations have adjusted their respective structures towards the ideal type of the so-called New Public Management (NPM). The empirical findings show that reforms towards NPM are more pronounced in the Commission than in the OECD. These findings are surprising for two reasons: First, it seems rather paradoxical that the OECD as central promoter of NPM at the international level lags behind the global trend when it comes to reforming its own structures. Second, this result is in contradiction with theoretical expectations, as they can be derived from theories of institutional isomorphism. To nevertheless account for the surprising results, it is necessary to modify and complement existing theories especially with regard to the scope conditions of their causal mechanisms.

Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

L'energia solar fotovoltaica com una alternativa en els espais urbans

Estudi realitzat per avaluar la possibilitat i viabilitat d’instal·lació de panells solar fotovoltaics als terrats de les comunitats de veïns del Districte de l’Eixample de Barcelona. La seva finalitat és conscienciar a la població sobre la problemàtica actual del canvi climàtic fent ús de la ciutat com a element clau per a fomentar l’estalvi de consum energètic i la reducció d’emissions de diòxid de carboni (CO2). Els resultats obtinguts ens donen un valor aproximat de la superfície i potència necessària pels habitants de la ciutat de Barcelona i Catalunya, per tal de cobrir el seu consum d’electricitat d’ús domèstic amb energia solar fotovoltaica, així com una comparativa amb els resultats obtinguts en el Districte de l’Eixample en les dimensions: socio-econòmica, mediambiental i política.

Evaluating the impact of public subsidies on a firm's performance: A quasi-experimental approach

Many regional governments in developed countries design programs to improve the competitiveness of local firms. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of public programs whose aim is to enhance the performance of firms located in Catalonia (Spain). We compare the performance of publicly subsidised companies (treated) with that of similar, but unsubsidised companies (non-treated). We use the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methodology to construct a control group which, with respect to its observable characteristics, is as similar as possible to the treated group, and that allows us to identify firms which retain the same propensity to receive public subsidies. Once a valid comparison group has been established, we compare the respective performance of each firm. As a result, we find that recipient firms, on average, change their business practices, improve their performance, and increase their value added as a direct result of public subsidy programs.