Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy

Constant interest rate (CIR) projections are often criticized on the grounds that they are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in a variety of forward-looking models. This note shows howto construct CIR projections that are not subject to that criticism, using a standard New Keynesian model as a reference framework.

The curse of aid

Foreign aid provides a windfall of resources to recipient countries and may result in the same rent seeking behavior as documented in the curse of natural resources literature. In this paper we discuss this effect and document its magnitude. Using data for 108 recipient countries in the period 1960 to 1999, we find that foreign aid has a negative impact on democracy. In particular, if the foreign aid over GDP that a country receives over a period of five years reaches the 75th percentile in the sample, then a 10-point index of democracy is reduced between 0.6 and one point, a large effect. For comparison, we also measure the effect of oil rents on political institutions. The fall in democracy if oil revenues reach the 75th percentile is smaller, (0.02). Aid is a bigger curse than oil.

Time consistent Pareto solutions in common access resource gameswith asymmetric players

In the analysis of equilibrium policies in a di erential game, if agents have different time preference rates, the cooperative (Pareto optimum) solution obtained by applying the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle becomes time inconsistent. In this work we derive a set of dynamic programming equations (in discrete and continuous time) whose solutions are time consistent equilibrium rules for N-player cooperative di erential games in which agents di er in their instantaneous utility functions and also in their discount rates of time preference. The results are applied to the study of a cake-eating problem describing the management of a common property exhaustible natural resource. The extension of the results to a simple common property renewable natural resource model in in nite horizon is also discussed.

Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Time consistent Pareto solutions in common access resource gameswith asymmetric players

In the analysis of equilibrium policies in a di erential game, if agents have different time preference rates, the cooperative (Pareto optimum) solution obtained by applying the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle becomes time inconsistent. In this work we derive a set of dynamic programming equations (in discrete and continuous time) whose solutions are time consistent equilibrium rules for N-player cooperative di erential games in which agents di er in their instantaneous utility functions and also in their discount rates of time preference. The results are applied to the study of a cake-eating problem describing the management of a common property exhaustible natural resource. The extension of the results to a simple common property renewable natural resource model in in nite horizon is also discussed.

Treatment patterns and health care resource utilization in a 1-year observational cohort study of outpatients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence treated with long-acting injectable antipsychotics

Purpose: To describe (1) the clinical profiles and the patterns of use of long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence with oral antipsychotics, and in those who started treatment with LAI antipsychotics, (2) health care resource utilization and associated costs. Patients and methods: A total of 597 outpatients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence, according to the psychiatrist's clinical judgment, were recruited at 59 centers in a noninterventional prospective observational study of 1-year follow-up when their treatment was modified. In a post hoc analysis, the profiles of patients starting LAI or continuing with oral antipsychotics were described, and descriptive analyses of treatments, health resource utilization, and direct costs were performed in those who started an LAI antipsychotic. Results: Therapy modifications involved the antipsychotic medications in 84.8% of patients, mostly because of insufficient efficacy of prior regimen. Ninety-two (15.4%) patients started an LAI antipsychotic at recruitment. Of these, only 13 (14.1%) were prescribed with first-generation antipsychotics. During 1 year, 16.3% of patients who started and 14.9% of patients who did not start an LAI antipsychotic at recruitment relapsed, contrasting with the 20.9% who had been hospitalized only within the prior 6 months. After 1 year, 74.3% of patients who started an LAI antipsychotic continued concomitant treatment with oral antipsychotics. The mean (median) total direct health care cost per patient per month during the study year among the patients starting any LAI antipsychotic at baseline was 1,407 ( 897.7). Medication costs (including oral and LAI antipsychotics and concomitant medication) represented almost 44%, whereas nonmedication costs accounted for more than 55% of the mean total direct health care costs. Conclusion: LAI antipsychotics were infrequently prescribed in spite of a psychiatrist-perceived risk of nonadherence to oral antipsychotics. Mean medication costs were lower than nonmedication costs.

Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Treatment patterns and health care resource utilization in a 1-year observational cohort study of outpatients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence treated with long-acting injectable antipsychotics

Purpose: To describe (1) the clinical profiles and the patterns of use of long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence with oral antipsychotics, and in those who started treatment with LAI antipsychotics, (2) health care resource utilization and associated costs. Patients and methods: A total of 597 outpatients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence, according to the psychiatrist's clinical judgment, were recruited at 59 centers in a noninterventional prospective observational study of 1-year follow-up when their treatment was modified. In a post hoc analysis, the profiles of patients starting LAI or continuing with oral antipsychotics were described, and descriptive analyses of treatments, health resource utilization, and direct costs were performed in those who started an LAI antipsychotic. Results: Therapy modifications involved the antipsychotic medications in 84.8% of patients, mostly because of insufficient efficacy of prior regimen. Ninety-two (15.4%) patients started an LAI antipsychotic at recruitment. Of these, only 13 (14.1%) were prescribed with first-generation antipsychotics. During 1 year, 16.3% of patients who started and 14.9% of patients who did not start an LAI antipsychotic at recruitment relapsed, contrasting with the 20.9% who had been hospitalized only within the prior 6 months. After 1 year, 74.3% of patients who started an LAI antipsychotic continued concomitant treatment with oral antipsychotics. The mean (median) total direct health care cost per patient per month during the study year among the patients starting any LAI antipsychotic at baseline was 1,407 ( 897.7). Medication costs (including oral and LAI antipsychotics and concomitant medication) represented almost 44%, whereas nonmedication costs accounted for more than 55% of the mean total direct health care costs. Conclusion: LAI antipsychotics were infrequently prescribed in spite of a psychiatrist-perceived risk of nonadherence to oral antipsychotics. Mean medication costs were lower than nonmedication costs.

The long run development of Chile and the Natural Resources curse. Linkages, policy and growth, 1850-1950

This chapter analyses the effects of Natural Resources on the Chilean economy in the long run -1850-1950-. Specifically, the authors focus their attention on the mining cycles -nitrates and copper- and their impact on the mining activity. We also compare it with the evolution of the industry and whole economy, and how this has affected the economic growth of the country. In that sense, the industrial performance in Chile at the end of the 19th century until the Great Depression is still under debate. The optimistic view of Kirsch -1977- forehead the pessimistic view of Lagos -1966- and Palma -1979-. The new data and its analyses shows a neutral effect of the Natural Resources in the industrial development.

Design and evaluation of learning algorithms for dynamic resource management in virtual networks

Network virtualisation is considerably gaining attentionas a solution to ossification of the Internet. However, thesuccess of network virtualisation will depend in part on how efficientlythe virtual networks utilise substrate network resources.In this paper, we propose a machine learning-based approachto virtual network resource management. We propose to modelthe substrate network as a decentralised system and introducea learning algorithm in each substrate node and substrate link,providing self-organization capabilities. We propose a multiagentlearning algorithm that carries out the substrate network resourcemanagement in a coordinated and decentralised way. The taskof these agents is to use evaluative feedback to learn an optimalpolicy so as to dynamically allocate network resources to virtualnodes and links. The agents ensure that while the virtual networkshave the resources they need at any given time, only the requiredresources are reserved for this purpose. Simulations show thatour dynamic approach significantly improves the virtual networkacceptance ratio and the maximum number of accepted virtualnetwork requests at any time while ensuring that virtual networkquality of service requirements such as packet drop rate andvirtual link delay are not affected.

The temporal dynamics of resource use by frugivorous birds: a network approach

Ecological network patterns are influenced by diverse processes that operate at different temporal rates. Here we analyzed whether the coupled effect of local abundance variation, seasonally phenotypic plastic responses, and species evolutionary adaptations might act in concert to shape network patterns. We studied the temporal variation in three interaction properties of bird species (number of interactions per species, interaction strength, and interaction asymmetry) in a temporal sequence of 28 plant frugivore interaction networks spanning two years in a Mediterranean shrubland community. Three main hypotheses dealing with the temporal variation of network properties were tested, examining the effects of abundance, switching behavior between alternative food resources, and morphological traits in determining consumer interaction patterns. Our results demonstrate that temporal variation in consumer interaction patterns is explained by short-term variation in resource and bird abundances and seasonal dietary switches between alternative resources (fleshy fruits and insects). Moreover, differences in beak morphology are associated with differences in switching behavior between resources, suggesting an important role of foraging adaptations in determining network patterns. We argue that beak shape adaptations might determine generalist and specialist feeding behaviors and thus the positions of consumer species within the network. Finally, we provide a preliminary framework to interpret phylogenetic signal in plant animal networks. Indeed, we show that the strength of the phylogenetic signal in networks depends on the relative importance of abundance, behavioral, and morphological variables. We show that these variables strongly differ in their phylogenetic signal. Consequently, we suggest that moderate and significant phylogenetic effects should be commonly observed in networks of species interactions. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/07-1939.1

Consequences of warming and resource quality on the stoichiometry and nutrient cycling of a stream shredder

As a result of climate change, streams are warming and their runoff has been decreasing in most temperate areas. These changes can affect consumers directly by increasing their metabolic rates and modifying their physiology and indirectly by changing the quality of the resources on which organisms depend. In this study, a common stream detritivore (Echinogammarus berilloni Catta) was reared at two temperatures (15 and 20°C) and fed Populus nigra L. leaves that had been conditioned either in an intermittent or permanent reach to evaluate the effects of resource quality and increased temperatures on detritivore performance, stoichiometry and nutrient cycling. The lower quality (i.e., lower protein, soluble carbohydrates and higher C:P and N:P ratios) of leaves conditioned in pools resulted in compensatory feeding and lower nutrient retention capacity by E. berilloni. This effect was especially marked for phosphorus, which was unexpected based on predictions of ecological stoichiometry. When individuals were fed pool-conditioned leaves at warmer temperatures, their growth rates were higher, but consumers exhibited less efficient assimilation and higher mortality. Furthermore, the shifts to lower C:P ratios and higher lipid concentrations in shredder body tissues suggest that structural molecules such as phospholipids are preserved over other energetic C-rich macromolecules such as carbohydrates. These effects on consumer physiology and metabolism were further translated into feces and excreta nutrient ratios. Overall, our results show that the effects of reduced leaf quality on detritivore nutrient retention were more severe at higher temperatures because the shredders were not able to offset their increased metabolism with increased consumption or more efficient digestion when fed pool-conditioned leaves. Consequently, the synergistic effects of impaired food quality and increased temperatures might not only affect the physiology and survival of detritivores but also extend to other trophic compartments through detritivore-mediated nutrient cycling.