Supply Multipliers in Two Regional Economies

This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic impact that sectorial total factor productivity – or valued added - gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular it is studied the quantitative effect that each sector’s valued added injections has on household welfare (real disposable income), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government and foreign net income. To do that, we introduce the concept of supply multiplier. The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which it is assumed perfect competition and cleared markets of goods and factors. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow identifying those sectors with the greatest multipliers impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: efficiency gains, supply multipliers, key sectors, computable general equilibrium. JEL Classification: C68, R13.

Geographical effects on the accuracy of textile trade data:an international approach for 1913

Foreign trade statistics are the main data source to the study of international trade.However its accuracy has been under suspicion since Morgernstern published hisfamous work in 1963. Federico and Tena (1991) have resumed the question arguing thatthey can be useful in an adequate level of aggregation. But the geographical assignmentproblem remains unsolved. This article focuses on the spatial variable through theanalysis of the reliability of textile international data for 1913. A geographical biasarises between export and import series, but because of its quantitative importance it canbe negligible in an international scale.

Earnings management and audit adjustments: An empirical study of IBEX 35 constituents

Doubts about the reliability of a company's qualitative financial disclosure increase market participant expectations from the auditor's report. The auditing process is supposed to serve as a monitoring device that reduces management incentives to manipulate reported earnings. Empirical research confirms that it could be an efficient device under some circumstancesand recognizes that our estimates of the informativeness of audit reports are unavoidably biased (e.g., because of a client's anticipation of the auditing process). This empirical study supports the significant role of auditors in the financial market, in particular in the prevention of earnings management practice. We focus on earnings misstatements, which auditors correct with anadjustment, using a sample of past and current constituents of the benchmark market index in Spain, IBEX 35, and manually collected audit adjustments reported over the 1997-2004 period (42 companies, 336 annual reports, 75 earnings misstatements). Our findings confirm that companies more often overstate than understate their earnings. An investor may foresee earningsmisreporting, as manipulators have a similar profile (e.g., more leveraged and with lower sales). However, he may receive valuable information from the audit adjustment on the size of earnings misstatement, which can be significantly large (i.e., material in almost all cases). We suggest that the magnitude of an audit adjustment depends, other things constant, on annual revenues and free cash levels. We also examine how the audit adjustment relates to the observed market price, trading volume and stock returns. Our findings are that earnings manipulators have a lower price and larger trading volume compared to their rivals. Their returns are positively associated with the magnitude of earnings misreporting, which is not consistent with the possible pricing of audit information.

On the accuracy of Latin American trade statistics: A nonparametric test for 1925

This paper proposes a nonparametric test in order to establish the level of accuracy of theforeign trade statistics of 17 Latin American countries when contrasted with the trade statistics of the main partners in 1925. The Wilcoxon Matched-Pairs Ranks test is used to determine whether the differences between the data registered by exporters and importers are meaningful, and if so, whether the differences are systematic in any direction. The paper tests for the reliability of the data registered for two homogeneous products, petroleum and coal, both in volume and value. The conclusion of the several exercises performed is that we cannot accept the existence of statistically significant differences between the data provided by the exporters and the registered by the importing countries in most cases. The qualitative historiography of Latin American describes its foreign trade statistics as mostly unusable. Our quantitative results contest this view.

Drift compensation of gas sensor array data by Orthogonal Signal Correction

Drift is an important issue that impairs the reliability of gas sensing systems. Sensor aging, memory effects and environmental disturbances produce shifts in sensor responses that make initial statistical models for gas or odor recognition useless after a relatively short period (typically few weeks). Frequent recalibrations are needed to preserve system accuracy. However, when recalibrations involve numerous samples they become expensive and laborious. An interesting and lower cost alternative is drift counteraction by signal processing techniques. Orthogonal Signal Correction (OSC) is proposed for drift compensation in chemical sensor arrays. The performance of OSC is also compared with Component Correction (CC). A simple classification algorithm has been employed for assessing the performance of the algorithms on a dataset composed by measurements of three analytes using an array of seventeen conductive polymer gas sensors over a ten month period.

Monte Carlo simulation of kilovolt electron transport in solids

A Monte Carlo procedure to simulate the penetration and energy loss of low¿energy electron beams through solids is presented. Elastic collisions are described by using the method of partial waves for the screened Coulomb field of the nucleus. The atomic charge density is approximated by an analytical expression with parameters determined from the Dirac¿Hartree¿Fock¿Slater self¿consistent density obtained under Wigner¿Seitz boundary conditions in order to account for solid¿state effects; exchange effects are also accounted for by an energy¿dependent local correction. Elastic differential cross sections are then easily computed by combining the WKB and Born approximations to evaluate the phase shifts. Inelastic collisions are treated on the basis of a generalized oscillator strength model which gives inelastic mean free paths and stopping powers in good agreement with experimental data. This scattering model is accurate in the energy range from a few hundred eV up to about 50 keV. The reliability of the simulation method is analyzed by comparing simulation results and experimental data from backscattering and transmission measurements.

Fecal pellets collection as a method for assessing egesta of the marine cave-dwelling mysid Hemimysis speluncula

Egesta of a cave-dwelling mysid (Hemimysis speluncola Ledoyer, 1963) was studied in a submarine cave of Medes Islands, NW Mediterranean by in situ fecal pellet collecting. Fecal pellet production and gut fullness of mysids during incubation experiments are used to estimate mysid egestion rates. Intrinsic factors related with the natural history of this species such as population structure, density of mysids, daily rhythms and pellet decomposition rates are tested for their influence on the egestion rate. The effects of methodological artifacts, such as the stress induced by both incubation and preservation procedures, are also studied. An average mysid egests about 2.5 pellets per day into the cave. The time of day is the main factor affecting egestion. The highest deposition rate is between 2 to 4 hours after sunrise when about 38 % of the total daily pellet production becomes egested. Fecal pellet morphology changes with mysid demographic classes: immature mysids produce slender and thick pellets, whereas mature mysids produce only thick pellets. Immature classes show higher percentages of full guts than mature ones. Mysid density in the incubators does not affect the results on gut fullness, but it causes a decrease in the number of pellets collected after incubation. Coprorhexia seems to be the only plausible process to explain this paradox. The incubation procedure does not increase deposition rate significantly. Time of incubation is critical because the half-life of fecal pellets is about 2.5 hours. Fixation with liquid nitrogen decreases gut fullness and also deposition rates. Higher values are obtained with 70 % ethanol and 5 % formalin solutions which show very similar results for both gut fullness and pellet deposition rates. Nevertheless, ethanol is not suitable as fixative because it enhances the opacity of the body. Several suggestions are given in order to optimize the reliability of further in situ experiments for evaluation of egesta of Hemimysis speluncola in submarine caves.

Inclusion of soil erosion impacts in life cycle assessment on a global scale: application to energy crops in Spain

Purpose: Despite the fundamental role of ecosystem goods and services in sustaining human activities, there is no harmonized and internationally agreed method for including them in life cycle assessment (LCA). The main goal of this study was to develop a globally applicable and spatially resolved method for assessing land-use impacts on the erosion regulation ecosystem service.Methods: Soil erosion depends much on location. Thus, unlike conventional LCA, the endpoint method was regionalized at the grid-cell level (5 arc-minutes, approximately 10×10 km2) to reflect the spatial conditions of the site. Spatially explicit characterization factors were not further aggregated at broader spatial scales. Results and discussion: Life cycle inventory data of topsoil and topsoil organic carbon (SOC) losses were interpreted at the endpoint level in terms of the ultimate damage to soil resources and ecosystem quality. Human health damages were excluded from the assessment. The method was tested on a case study of five three-year agricultural rotations, two of them with energy crops, grown in several locations in Spain. A large variation in soil and SOC losses was recorded in the inventory step, depending on climatic and edaphic conditions. The importance of using a spatially explicit model and characterization factors is shown in the case study.Conclusions and outlook: The regionalized assessment takes into account the differences in soil erosion-related environmental impacts caused by the great variability of soils. Taking this regionalized framework as the starting point, further research should focus on testing the applicability of the method trough the complete life cycle of a product and on determining an appropriate spatial scale at which to aggregate characterization factors, in order to deal with data gaps on location of processes, especially in the background system. Additional research should also focus on improving reliability of the method by quantifying and, insofar as it is possible, reducing uncertainty.

A Spanish version of the short Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (sMARS)

The aim of this studywas to adapt and assess the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the sMARS in terms of evidence of validity and reliability of scores. The sMARS was administered to 342 students and, in order to assess convergent and discriminant validity, several subsamples completed a series of related tests. The factorial structure of the sMARSwas analyzed by means of a confirmatory factor analysis and results showed that the three-factor structure reported in the original test fits well with the data. Thus, three dimensions were established in the test: math test, numerical task and math course anxiety. The results of this study provide sound evidence that demonstrates the good psychometric properties of the scores of the Spanish version of the sMARS: strong internal consistency, high 7-week testretest reliability and good convergent/discriminant validity were evident. Overall, this study provides an instrument that allows us to obtain valid and reliable math anxiety measurements. This instrument may be a useful tool for educators and psychologists interested in identifying individuals that may have a low level of math mastery because of their anxiety.

Evolutionary analysis of genetic variants involved in rare diseases

Next-generation sequencing techniques such as exome sequencing can successfully detect all genetic variants in a human exome and it has been useful together with the implementation of variant filters to identify causing-disease mutations. Two filters aremainly used for the mutations identification: low allele frequency and the computational annotation of the genetic variant. Bioinformatic tools to predict the effect of a givenvariant may have errors due to the existing bias in databases and sometimes show a limited coincidence among them. Advances in functional and comparative genomics are needed in order to properly annotate these variants.The goal of this study is to: first, functionally annotate Common Variable Immunodeficiency disease (CVID) variants with the available bioinformatic methods in order to assess the reliability of these strategies. Sencondly, as the development of new methods to reduce the number of candidate genetic variants is an active and necessary field of research, we are exploring the utility of gene function information at organism level as a filter for rare disease genes identification. Recently, it has been proposed that only 10-15% of human genes are essential and therefore we would expect that severe rare diseases are mostly caused by mutations on them. Our goal is to determine whether or not these rare and severe diseases are caused by deleterious mutations in these essential genes. If this hypothesis were true, taking into account essential genes as a filter would be an interesting parameter to identify causingdisease mutations.

Human Capital Questionnaire (PHCQ): Assessment of European nurses' perception as indicators of human capital quality

Healthcare accreditation models generally include indicators related to healthcare employees' perceptions (e.g. satisfaction, career development, and health safety). During the accreditation process, organizations are asked to demonstrate the methods with which assessments are made. However, none of the models provide standardized systems for the assessment of employees. In this study, we analyzed the psychometric properties of an instrument for the assessment of nurses' perceptions as indicators of human capital quality in healthcare organizations. The Human Capital Questionnaire was applied to a sample of 902 nurses in four European countries (Spain, Portugal, Poland, and the UK). Exploratory factor analysis identified six factors: satisfaction with leadership, identification and commitment, satisfaction with participation, staff well-being, career development opportunities, and motivation. The results showed the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, which when applied to healthcare organizations, provide a better understanding of nurses' perceptions, and is a parsimonious instrument for assessment and organizational accreditation. From a practical point of view, improving the quality of human capital, by analyzing nurses and other healthcare employees' perceptions, is related to workforce empowerment.

Elicitation of subjective crop yield PDF

En este trabajo se investiga la coherencia y confiabilidad de estimaciones de funciones de densidad de probabilidad (FDP) subjetivas de rendimientos de cultivos realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. Se utilizaron tres técnicas de elicitación diferentes: el método de estimación de FDP en dos pasos, la distribución Triangular y la distribución Beta. Los sujetos entrevistados ofrecieron estimaciones para los valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos (medio, máximo posible, más frecuente y mínimo posible) y para las FDP basadas en la estimación de intervalos. Para evaluar la persistencia, se utilizaron los conceptos de persistencia temporal y persistencia metodológica. Los resultados son interesantes para juzgar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas a los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

The transcriptional network activated by Cln3 cyclin at the G1-to-S transition of the yeast cell cycle

Background: The G1-to-S transition of the cell cycle in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae involves an extensive transcriptional program driven by transcription factors SBF (Swi4-Swi6) and MBF (Mbp1-Swi6). Activation of these factors ultimately depends on the G1 cyclin Cln3. Results: To determine the transcriptional targets of Cln3 and their dependence on SBF or MBF, we first have used DNA microarrays to interrogate gene expression upon Cln3 overexpression in synchronized cultures of strains lacking components of SBF and/or MBF. Secondly, we have integrated this expression dataset together with other heterogeneous data sources into a single probabilistic model based on Bayesian statistics. Our analysis has produced more than 200 transcription factor-target assignments, validated by ChIP assays and by functional enrichment. Our predictions show higher internal coherence and predictive power than previous classifications. Our results support a model whereby SBF and MBF may be differentially activated by Cln3. Conclusions: Integration of heterogeneous genome-wide datasets is key to building accurate transcriptional networks. By such integration, we provide here a reliable transcriptional network at the G1-to-S transition in the budding yeast cell cycle. Our results suggest that to improve the reliability of predictions we need to feed our models with more informative experimental data.

From trade to industry. The wine production sector in the Penedès Denomination of Origin, 1940-2000

[cat] Aquest treball té com a objectiu mostrar el grau en què el sector de la producció de vi a la Denominació d'Origen Penedès ha respost als reptes que s’han plantejat tant en termes de l'oferta (de consolidació i sorgiment dels països productors fora de l'esfera europea tradicional) i de la demanda (caiguda de la el consum de vi i els nous hàbits de consum) durant la segona meitat del segle XX. El document analitza l'evolució del sector a la regió des del començament de la dècada de 1940 fins a la fi del segle. Amb la fi de la Guerra Civil de 1936-1939 el sector va haver d'afrontar una caiguda de la producció, la qual va continuar concentrant-se en la comercialització de vins tradicionals. Aquesta situació va canviar quan, a finals de la dècada de 1960, la demanda es va girar cada vegada més als vins de major qualitat embotellats. Des del punt de vista legislatiu, la resposta es va centrar en la innovació tecnològica i la reestructuració de l'empresa. Aquest període va ser testimoni de la introducció de nous equips i processos, com ara l’acer inoxidable i tancs de fermentació a temperatura controlada, amb els vins embotellats expulsant el vi a granel i la transformació dels grans magatzemistes en cellers i caves. A més, una de les principals característiques del període 1970-1985 va ser la formació dels grans conglomerats empresarials dels vins i del cava. L’entrada d'Espanya a la Unió Europea el 1986 va impulsar una acceleració d'aquest procés de transformació, deixant el sector format principalment per empreses que produeixen vins i caves, que han introduït els vins negres i varietals en la seva oferta de productes, que posseeixen moltes hectàrees de vinyes i en molts casos, que han mostrat una clara intenció de penetrar en el mercat internacional.

From trade to industry. The wine production sector in the Penedès Denomination of Origin, 1940-2000

[cat] Aquest treball té com a objectiu mostrar el grau en què el sector de la producció de vi a la Denominació d'Origen Penedès ha respost als reptes que s’han plantejat tant en termes de l'oferta (de consolidació i sorgiment dels països productors fora de l'esfera europea tradicional) i de la demanda (caiguda de la el consum de vi i els nous hàbits de consum) durant la segona meitat del segle XX. El document analitza l'evolució del sector a la regió des del començament de la dècada de 1940 fins a la fi del segle. Amb la fi de la Guerra Civil de 1936-1939 el sector va haver d'afrontar una caiguda de la producció, la qual va continuar concentrant-se en la comercialització de vins tradicionals. Aquesta situació va canviar quan, a finals de la dècada de 1960, la demanda es va girar cada vegada més als vins de major qualitat embotellats. Des del punt de vista legislatiu, la resposta es va centrar en la innovació tecnològica i la reestructuració de l'empresa. Aquest període va ser testimoni de la introducció de nous equips i processos, com ara l’acer inoxidable i tancs de fermentació a temperatura controlada, amb els vins embotellats expulsant el vi a granel i la transformació dels grans magatzemistes en cellers i caves. A més, una de les principals característiques del període 1970-1985 va ser la formació dels grans conglomerats empresarials dels vins i del cava. L’entrada d'Espanya a la Unió Europea el 1986 va impulsar una acceleració d'aquest procés de transformació, deixant el sector format principalment per empreses que produeixen vins i caves, que han introduït els vins negres i varietals en la seva oferta de productes, que posseeixen moltes hectàrees de vinyes i en molts casos, que han mostrat una clara intenció de penetrar en el mercat internacional.