A Descriptive and analytic look at Marx's own explanations of the falling rate of profit (second version)

This paper examines, both descriptively and analytically, Marx's arguments for the falling rate of profit from the Hodgskin section of Theories of Surplus Value, The General Law section of the recently published Volume 33 of the Collected Works and Chapter 3 of Volume III of Capital. The conclusions are as follows: First, Marx realised that his main attempt to give an intrinsic explanation of the falling rate of profit, which occurred in the General Law section, had failed; but he still hoped that he would be able to demonstrate it in the future. Second, the Hodgskin and General Law sections contain a number of subsidiary explanations, mostly related to resource scarcity, some of which are correct. Third, Part III of volume III does not contain a demonstration of the falling rate of profit, but a description of the role of the falling rate of profit in capitalist development. Forth, it also contains suppressed references to resource scarcity. And finally, in Chapter 3 of Volume III, Marx says that it is resource scarcity that causes the fall in the rate of profit described in Part III of the same volume. The key to all these conclusions in the careful analysis of the General Law section.

On the choice of an exchange rate regime: target zones revisited

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

A foundation model for marxian theories of the breakdown of capitalism

Marx and the writers that followed him have produced a number of theories of the breakdown of capitalism. The majority of these theories were based on the historical tendencies: the rise in the composition of capital and the share of capital and the fall in the rate of profit. However these theories were never modeled with main stream rigour. This paper presents a constant wage model, with capital, labour and land as factors of production, which reproduces the historical tendencies and so can be used as a foundation for the various theories. The use of Chaplygins theorem in the proof of the main result also gives the paper a technical interest.

A descriptive and analytic look at Marxs own explanations for the falling rate of profit

Marxs conclusions about the falling rate of profit have been analysed exhaustively. Usually this has been done by building models which broadly conform to Marxs views and then showing that his conclusions are either correct or, more frequently, that they can not be sustained. By contrast, this paper examines, both descriptively and analytically, Marxs arguments from the Hodgskin section of Theories of Surplus Value, the General Law section of the recently published Volume 33 of the Collected Works and Chapter 3 of Volume III of Capital. It also gives a new interpretation of Part III of this last work. The main conclusions are first, that Marx had an intrinsic explanation of the falling rate of profit but was unable to give it a satisfactory demonstration and second, that he had a number of subsidiary explanations of which the most important was resource scarcity. The paper closes with an assessment of the pedigree of various currents of Marxian thought on this issue.

A descriptive and analytic look at Marxs own explanations for the falling rate of profit (Long Version)

Marxs conclusions about the falling rate of profit have been analysed exhaustively. Usually this has been done by building models which broadly conform to Marxs views and then showing that his conclusions are either correct or, more frequently, that they can not be sustained. By contrast, this paper examines, both descriptively and analytically, Marxs arguments from the Hodgskin section of Theories of Surplus Value, the General Law section of the recently published Volume 33 of the Collected Works and Chapter 3 of Volume III of Capital. It also gives a new interpretation of Part III of this last work. The main conclusions are first, that Marx had an intrinsic explanation of the falling rate of profit but was unable to give it a satisfactory demonstration and second, that he had a number of subsidiary explanations of which the most important was resource scarcity. The paper closes with an assessment of the pedigree of various currents of Marxian thought on this issue.

Land, technical progress and the falling rate of profit

The paper sets out a one sector growth model with a neoclassical production function in land and a capital-labour aggregate. Capital accumulates through capitalist saving, the labour supply is infinitely elastic at a subsistence wage and all factors may experience factor augmenting technical progress. The main result is that, if the elasticity of substitution between land and the capital-labour aggregate is less than one and if the rate of caital augmenting technical progress is strictly positive, then the rate of profit will fall to zero. The surprise is that this result holds regardless of the rate of land augmenting technical progress; that is, no amount of technical advance in agriculture can stop the fall in the rate of profit. The paper also discusses the relation of this result to the classical and Marxist literature and sets out the path of the relative price of land.

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Equilibrium play and best response to (Stated) beliefs in constant sum games

We report experimental results on one-shot two person 3x3 constant sum games played by non-economists without previous experience in the laboratory. Although strategically our games are very similar to previous experiments in which game theory predictions fail dramatically, 80% of actions taken in our experiment coincided with the prediction of the unique Nash equilibrium in pure strategies and 73% of actions were best responses to elicited beliefs. We argue how social preferences, presentation effects and belief elicitation procedures may influence how subjects play in simple but non trivial games and explain the diferences we observe with respect to previous work.

On the growth rate of minor-closed classes of graphs

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

The choice of banking firm: Are the interest rate a significant criteria?

The objective of the research is to know the factors that in Spain determine the choice of banking organization. The obtained results indicate that the dimension of the network of branches is the reason more valued. In spite of the increasing symmetry of the Spanish banking market, the preferences of the clients of the savings banks and those of the banks are not absolutely coincident, being the proximity - the main reason for election- much more valued by the former than by the latter. The existence of divergences in the preferences has also been detected according to the region and the typology of city of residence.

Geometria integral i convexitat en espais de curvatura holomorfa constant

En aquest treball es tracten qüestions de la geometria integral clàssica a l'espai hiperbòlic i projectiu complex i a l'espai hermític estàndard, els anomenats espais de curvatura holomorfa constant. La geometria integral clàssica estudia, entre d'altres, l'expressió en termes geomètrics de la mesura de plans que tallen un domini convex fixat de l'espai euclidià. Aquesta expressió es dóna en termes de les integrals de curvatura mitja. Un dels resultats principals d'aquest treball expressa la mesura de plans complexos que tallen un domini fixat a l'espai hiperbòlic complex, en termes del que definim com volums intrínsecs hermítics, que generalitzen les integrals de curvatura mitja. Una altra de les preguntes que tracta la geometria integral clàssica és: donat un domini convex i l'espai de plans, com s'expressa la integral de la s-èssima integral de curvatura mitja del convex intersecció entre un pla i el convex fixat? A l'espai euclidià, a l'espai projectiu i hiperbòlic reals, aquesta integral correspon amb la s-èssima integral de curvatura mitja del convex inicial: se satisfà una propietat de reproductibitat, que no es té en els espais de curvatura holomorfa constant. En el treball donem l'expressió explícita de la integral de la curvatura mitja quan integrem sobre l'espai de plans complexos. L'expressem en termes de la integral de curvatura mitja del domini inicial i de la integral de la curvatura normal en una direcció especial: l'obtinguda en aplicar l'estructura complexa al vector normal. La motivació per estudiar els espais de curvatura holomorfa constant i, en particular, l'espai hiperbòlic complex, es troba en l'estudi del següent problema clàssic en geometria. Quin valor pren el quocient entre l'àrea i el perímetre per a successions de figures convexes del pla que creixen tendint a omplir-lo? Fins ara es coneixia el comportament d'aquest quocient en els espais de curvatura seccional negativa i que a l'espai hiperbòlic real les fites obtingudes són òptimes. Aquí provem que a l'espai hiperbòlic complex, les cotes generals no són òptimes i optimitzem la superior.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Utopia?: probablement potser...

L'objectiu d'aquest treball és que l'autor derivi en testimoni de la societat a partir d'enquestes i dels seus propis textos, que exemplifiquen situacions diverses. Tot regit per una voluntat que més o menys expressada, dirigeix l'acció dels homes: l'esperança en un món millor que en cap lloc es troba, ni en altres temps. L'autor fent-se ressò d'un humanisme tormentat s'insereix en experiències literàries, que són mirall de l'home coetani. De tota manera mai no oblida els intents que en el passat han portat els homes a imaginar indrets de felicitat. És per això la constant recurrència a les utopies literàries. En contrast amb les enquestes realitzades apel·lant a les diverses ideologies polítiques. Com a conclusió el treball ens aporta la idea que la vida segueix i paral·lela a ella, segueix la vida literària, i totes dues són fonament de la utopia. És a dir, que podem fer nostre, altra vegada, el vell aforisme enigmàtic i totalitzador que ens anuncia que 'el camí s'ha iniciat i el viatge s'ha acabat'.