Country portfolios and the Solow-model

This paper shows that an open economy Solow model provides a good description of international investment positions in industrialized countries. More than half of the variation of net foreign assets in the 1990's can be attributed to cross country differences in the savings rate, population and productivity growth. Furthermore, these factors seem to be an important channel through which output and wealth affect international investment positions. We interpret this funding as evidence that decreasing returns are an important source of international capital movements. The savings rate (andpopulation growth) influence the composition of country portfolios through their downward (upward) pressure on the marginal productivity of capital.

Population based resource allocation: The use of hybrid risk adjustment

The emphasis on integrated care implies new incentives that promote coordinationbetween levels of care. Considering a population as a whole, the resource allocation systemhas to adapt to this environment. This research is aimed to design a model that allows formorbidity related prospective and concurrent capitation payment. The model can be applied inpublicly funded health systems and managed competition settings.Methods: We analyze the application of hybrid risk adjustment versus either prospective orconcurrent risk adjustment formulae in the context of funding total health expenditures for thepopulation of an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia during years 2004 and2005.Results: The hybrid model reimburses integrated care organizations avoiding excessive risktransfer and maximizing incentives for efficiency in the provision. At the same time, it eliminatesincentives for risk selection for a specific set of high risk individuals through the use ofconcurrent reimbursement in order to assure a proper classification of patients.Conclusion: Prospective Risk Adjustment is used to transfer the financial risk to the healthprovider and therefore provide incentives for efficiency. Within the context of a National HealthSystem, such transfer of financial risk is illusory, and the government has to cover the deficits.Hybrid risk adjustment is useful to provide the right combination of incentive for efficiency andappropriate level of risk transfer for integrated care organizations.

Are tax subsidies for private medical insurance self-financing? Evidence from a microsimulation model for outpatient and inpatient episodes

This paper analyses whether or not tax subsidies to private medicalinsurance are self-financing by means of a structural approach. Weconstruct a simulation routine based on a microeconometric discretechoice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changeson the utilisation of outpatient and inpatient health care services. Wesimulate the 1999 Spanish tax reform that abolished the tax deductionfor expenditures on private health insurance using a representativesample of the Catalan population. Prior to this reform, foregone taxrevenue arising from deductions after the purchase of private insuranceamounted to 69.2 M. per year. In contrast, the elimination of thesubsidies to private policies is estimated to generate an extra costfor the public sector of about 8.9 M. per year.

A numerical model for the gamma-ray emission of the microquasar LS 5039

The possible association between the microquasar LS 5039 and the EGRET source 3EG J1824-1514 suggests that microquasars could also be sources of high energy gamma-rays. In this paper, we explore, with a detailed numerical model, if this system can produce the emission detected by EGRET (>100 MeV) through inverse Compton (IC) scattering. Our numerical approach considers a population of relativistic electrons entrained in a cylindrical inhomogeneous jet, interacting with both the radiation and the magnetic fields, taking into account the Thomson and Klein-Nishina regimes of interaction. The computed spectrum reproduces the observed spectral characteristics at very high energy.

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

An agency-oriented model to explain vine-growing specialization in the province of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) in the mid-nineteenth century

[cat] En aquest treball presentem un model per explicar el procés d’especialització vitícola assolit als municipis de la província de Barcelona, a mitjans del s. XIX,que cerca entendre com va sorgir històricament un avantatge comparatiu fruit d’un procés que esdevindria un dels punts de partida del procés d’industrialització a Catalunya. Els resultats confirmen els papers jugats pel impuls “Boserupià” de la població en un context d’intensificació de l’ús de la terra, i d’un impuls del mercat “Smithià” en un context d’expansió de la demanda per part de les economies atlàntiques. També es posa de manifest la importància de les dotacions agro-ecològiques i les condicions socioinstitucionals relacionades amb la desigualtat d’ingrés. La difusió de la vinya donà com a resultat unes comunitats rurals menys desiguals fins al 1820, tot i que aquesta desigualtat augmentà de nou a partir d'aleshores.

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

Estudi de l'estat de Salut autopercebut: Modelització de l'índex d'utilitat EQ-5D mitjançant un model tobit

Objective: Health status measures usually have an asymmetric distribution and present a highpercentage of respondents with the best possible score (ceiling effect), specially when they areassessed in the overall population. Different methods to model this type of variables have beenproposed that take into account the ceiling effect: the tobit models, the Censored Least AbsoluteDeviations (CLAD) models or the two-part models, among others. The objective of this workwas to describe the tobit model, and compare it with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model,that ignores the ceiling effect.Methods: Two different data sets have been used in order to compare both models: a) real datacomming from the European Study of Mental Disorders (ESEMeD), in order to model theEQ5D index, one of the measures of utilities most commonly used for the evaluation of healthstatus; and b) data obtained from simulation. Cross-validation was used to compare thepredicted values of the tobit model and the OLS models. The following estimators werecompared: the percentage of absolute error (R1), the percentage of squared error (R2), the MeanSquared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE). Different datasets werecreated for different values of the error variance and different percentages of individuals withceiling effect. The estimations of the coefficients, the percentage of explained variance and theplots of residuals versus predicted values obtained under each model were compared.Results: With regard to the results of the ESEMeD study, the predicted values obtained with theOLS model and those obtained with the tobit models were very similar. The regressioncoefficients of the linear model were consistently smaller than those from the tobit model. In thesimulation study, we observed that when the error variance was small (s=1), the tobit modelpresented unbiased estimations of the coefficients and accurate predicted values, specially whenthe percentage of individuals wiht the highest possible score was small. However, when theerrror variance was greater (s=10 or s=20), the percentage of explained variance for the tobitmodel and the predicted values were more similar to those obtained with an OLS model.Conclusions: The proportion of variability accounted for the models and the percentage ofindividuals with the highest possible score have an important effect in the performance of thetobit model in comparison with the linear model.

The Kuramoto model: A simple paradigm for synchronization phenomena

Synchronization phenomena in large populations of interacting elements are the subject of intense research efforts in physical, biological, chemical, and social systems. A successful approach to the problem of synchronization consists of modeling each member of the population as a phase oscillator. In this review, synchronization is analyzed in one of the most representative models of coupled phase oscillators, the Kuramoto model. A rigorous mathematical treatment, specific numerical methods, and many variations and extensions of the original model that have appeared in the last few years are presented. Relevant applications of the model in different contexts are also included.

Self-organized criticality and synchronization in a coupled map lattice model of integrate-and-fire oscillators

We introduce two coupled map lattice models with nonconservative interactions and a continuous nonlinear driving. Depending on both the degree of conservation and the convexity of the driving we find different behaviors, ranging from self-organized criticality, in the sense that the distribution of events (avalanches) obeys a power law, to a macroscopic synchronization of the population of oscillators, with avalanches of the size of the system.

Synchronization in a lattice model of pulse-coupled oscillators

We analyze the collective behavior of a lattice model of pulse-coupled oscillators. By means of computer simulations we find the relation between the intrinsic dynamics of each member of the population and their mutual interactions that ensures, in a general context, the existence of a fully synchronized regime. This condition turns out to be the same as that obtained for the globally coupled population. When the condition is not completely satisfied we find different spatial structures. This also gives some hints about self-organized criticality.

An agency-oriented model to explain vine-growing specialization in the province of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) in the mid-nineteenth century

[cat] En aquest treball presentem un model per explicar el procés d’especialització vitícola assolit als municipis de la província de Barcelona, a mitjans del s. XIX,que cerca entendre com va sorgir històricament un avantatge comparatiu fruit d’un procés que esdevindria un dels punts de partida del procés d’industrialització a Catalunya. Els resultats confirmen els papers jugats pel impuls “Boserupià” de la població en un context d’intensificació de l’ús de la terra, i d’un impuls del mercat “Smithià” en un context d’expansió de la demanda per part de les economies atlàntiques. També es posa de manifest la importància de les dotacions agro-ecològiques i les condicions socioinstitucionals relacionades amb la desigualtat d’ingrés. La difusió de la vinya donà com a resultat unes comunitats rurals menys desiguals fins al 1820, tot i que aquesta desigualtat augmentà de nou a partir d'aleshores.

Ab initio cluster-model study of the on-top chemisorption of F and Cl on Si(111) and Ge(111) surfaces

The interaction of atomic F and Cl with Si4H9 and Ge4H9 cluster models has been studied by using ab initio pseudopotentials and basis sets of increasing complexity. The results show that the effect of d orbitals is important in order to reproduce the experimental findings. However, the use of polarization functions in the atoms which are directly involved in the chemisorption bond leads to results which are very close to those obtained using extended basis sets. The local nature of the chemisorption bond is also interpreted by means of a Mulliken population analysis. For F-Si4H9 and Cl-Si4H9 the present results are in good agreement with previous ab initio all-electron calculations, and for the chemisorption of Cl on Si(111) and Ge(111) surfaces, good agreement is found with respect to the available experimental results as well as with previous slab calculations based on the local-density-functional formalism.

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case