Regional value added in Italy over the long run (1891-2001): linking indirect estimates with official figures, and implications

This paper presents value added estimates for the Italian regions, in benchmark years from 1891 until 1951, which are linked to those from official figures available from 1971 in order to offer a long-term picture. Sources and methodology are documented and discussed, whilst regional activity rates and productivity are also presented and compared. Thus some questions are briefly reconsidered: the origins and extent of the north-south divide, the role of migration and regional policy in shaping the pattern of regional inequality, the importance of social capital, and the positioning of Italy in the international debate on regional convergence, where it stands out for the long run persistence of its disparities.

Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data

We use historical data that cover more than one century on real GDP for industrial countries and employ the Pesaran panel unit root test that allows for cross-sectional dependence to test for a unit root on real GDP. We find strong evidence against the unit root null. Our results are robust to the chosen group of countries and the sample period. Key words: real GDP stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, CIPS test. JEL Classification: C23, E32

Beurling-Landau densities of weighted Fekete sets and correlation kernel estimates

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Sunk costs, extensive R&D subsidies and permanent inducement effects

We study whether there is scope for using subsidies to smooth out barriers to R&D performance and expand the share of R&D firms in Spain. We consider a dynamic model with sunk entry costs in which firms’ optimal participation strategy is defined in terms of two subsidy thresholds that characterise entry and continuation. We compute the subsidy thresholds from the estimates of a dynamic panel data type-2 tobit model for an unbalanced panel of about 2,000 Spanish manufacturing firms. The results suggest that “extensive” subsidies are a feasible and efficient tool for expanding the share of R&D firms.

Seeds of hope: Assessing the effect of development aid on the reduction of child mortality

The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality.

Moduli of smoothness and growth properties of Fourier transforms: two-sided estimates

We prove two-sided inequalities between the integral moduli of smoothness of a function on R d[superscript] / T d[superscript] and the weighted tail-type integrals of its Fourier transform/series. Sharpness of obtained results in particular is given by the equivalence results for functions satisfying certain regular conditions. Applications include a quantitative form of the Riemann-Lebesgue lemma as well as several other questions in approximation theory and the theory of function spaces.

Counterexamples to some pointwise estimates of the maximal Cauchy transform in terms of the Cauchy transform

Motivated by the work of Mateu, Orobitg, Pérez and Verdera, who proved inequalities of the form $T_*f\lesssim M(Tf)$ or $T_*f\lesssim M^2(Tf)$ for certain singular integral operators $T$, such as the Hilbert or the Beurling transforms, we study the possibility of establishing this type of control for the Cauchy transform along a Lipschitz graph. We show that this is not possible in general, and we give a partial positive result when the graph is substituted by a Jordan curve.

L2−estimates for the DG IIPG-0 scheme

We discuss the optimality in L2 of a variant of the Incomplete Discontinuous Galerkin Interior Penalty method (IIPG) for second order linear elliptic problems. We prove optimal estimate, in two and three dimensions, for the lowest order case under suitable regularity assumptions on the data and on the mesh. We also provide numerical evidence, in one dimension, of the necessity of the regularity assumptions.

Equidistribution estimates for Fekete points on complex manifolds

We study the equidistribution of Fekete points in a compact complex manifold. These are extremal point configurations defined through sections of powers of a positive line bundle. Their equidistribution is a known result. The novelty of our approach is that we relate them to the problem of sampling and interpolation on line bundles, which allows us to estimate the equidistribution of the Fekete points quantitatively. In particular we estimate the Kantorovich-Wasserstein distance of the Fekete points to its limiting measure. The sampling and interpolation arrays on line bundles are a subject of independent interest, and we provide necessary density conditions through the classical approach of Landau, that in this context measures the local dimension of the space of sections of the line bundle. We obtain a complete geometric characterization of sampling and interpolation arrays in the case of compact manifolds of dimension one, and we prove that there are no arrays of both sampling and interpolation in the more general setting of semipositive line bundles.

How effective are policies to reduce gasoline consumption? evaluating a quasi-natural experiment in Spain

Using a panel of 48 provinces for four years we empirically analyze a series of temporary policies aimed at curbing fuel consumption implemented in Spain between March and June 2011. The first policy was a reduction in the speed limit in highways. The second policy was an increase in the biofuel content of fuels used in the transport sector. The third measure was a reduction of 5% in commuting and regional train fares that resulted in two major metropolitan areas reducing their overall fare for public transit. The results indicate that the speed limit reduction in highways reduced gasoline consumption by between 2% and 3%, while an increase in the biofuel content of gasoline increased this consumption. This last result is consistent with experimental evidence that indicates that mileage per liter falls with an increase in the biofuel content in gasolines. As for the reduction in transit fares, we do not find a significant effect for this policy. However, in specifications including the urban transit fare for the major cities in each province the estimated cross-price elasticity of the demand for gasoline -used as a proxy for car use- with respect to the price of transit is within the range reported in the literature. This is important since one of the main eficiency justification for subsidizing public transit rests on the positive value of this parameter and most of the estimates reported in the literature are quite dated.

Estimates of electronic coupling for excess electron transfer in DNA

Electronic coupling Vda is one of the key parameters that determine the rate of charge transfer through DNA. While there have been several computational studies of Vda for hole transfer, estimates of electronic couplings for excess electron transfer (ET) in DNA remain unavailable. In the paper, an efficient strategy is established for calculating the ET matrix elements between base pairs in a π stack. Two approaches are considered. First, we employ the diabatic-state (DS) method in which donor and acceptor are represented with radical anions of the canonical base pairs adenine-thymine (AT) and guanine-cytosine (GC). In this approach, similar values of Vda are obtained with the standard 6-31 G* and extended 6-31++ G* basis sets. Second, the electronic couplings are derived from lowest unoccupied molecular orbitals (LUMOs) of neutral systems by using the generalized Mulliken-Hush or fragment charge methods. Because the radical-anion states of AT and GC are well reproduced by LUMOs of the neutral base pairs calculated without diffuse functions, the estimated values of Vda are in good agreement with the couplings obtained for radical-anion states using the DS method. However, when the calculation of a neutral stack is carried out with diffuse functions, LUMOs of the system exhibit the dipole-bound character and cannot be used for estimating electronic couplings. Our calculations suggest that the ET matrix elements Vda for models containing intrastrand thymine and cytosine bases are essentially larger than the couplings in complexes with interstrand pyrimidine bases. The matrix elements for excess electron transfer are found to be considerably smaller than the corresponding values for hole transfer and to be very responsive to structural changes in a DNA stack

Design and evaluation of a panel os single-nucleotide polymorphisms in microRNA genomic regions for association studies in human disease

MicroRNAs (miRNA) are recognized posttranscriptional gene repressors involved in the control of almost every biological process. Allelic variants in these regions may be an important source of phenotypic diversity and contribute to disease susceptibility. We analyzed the genomic organization of 325 human miRNAs (release 7.1, miRBase) to construct a panel of 768 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) covering approximately 1 Mb of genomic DNA, including 131 isolated miRNAs (40%) and 194 miRNAs arranged in 48 miRNA clusters, as well as their 5-kb flanking regions. Of these miRNAs, 37% were inside known protein-coding genes, which were significantly associated with biological functions regarding neurological, psychological or nutritional disorders. SNP coverage analysis revealed a lower SNP density in miRNAs compared with the average of the genome, with only 24 SNPs located in the 325 miRNAs studied. Further genotyping of 340 unrelated Spanish individuals showed that more than half of the SNPs in miRNAs were either rare or monomorphic, in agreement with the reported selective constraint on human miRNAs. A comparison of the minor allele frequencies between Spanish and HapMap population samples confirmed the applicability of this SNP panel to the study of complex disorders among the Spanish population, and revealed two miRNA regions, hsa-mir-26a-2 in the CTDSP2 gene and hsa-mir-128-1 in the R3HDM1 gene, showing geographical allelic frequency variation among the four HapMap populations, probably because of differences in natural selection. The designed miRNA SNP panel could help to identify still hidden links between miRNAs and human disease.

Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility (namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

The Impact of Industry Collaboration on Academic Research Output: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of university knowledge and technology transfer activities on academic research output. Specifically, we study whether researchers with collaborative links with the private sector publish less than their peers without such links, once controlling for other sources of heterogeneity. We report findings from a longitudinal dataset on researchers from two engineering departments in the UK between 1985 until 2006. Our results indicate that researchers with industrial links publish significantly more than their peers. Academic productivity, though, is higher for low levels of industry involvement as compared to high levels.