Dots i llegats dels Baldrich de Valls (1768-1863)

Aquest article presenta les dificultats que van haver d’afrontar entre 1768 i 1863 els hereus de la casa Baldrich de Valls per liquidar els dots i les deixes testamentàries. Anton Baldrich Janer va nomenar hereu el fill gran del primer matrimoni amb l’obligació de pagar als seus germans i especialment als seus germanastres unes quantitats molt elevades de diners atorgats en un moment de grans expectatives econòmiques, gràcies al comerç amb Amèrica i el nord d’Europa. Durant la primera meitat del segle XIX, alguns anys de males collites, les contínues guerres i la independència de les colònies americanes feren minvar els recursos i van afeblir la hisenda familiar. Els successius hereus maldaven per pagar les contínues reclamacions dels cabalers i les cabaleres de les diferents generacions, fet que els impedia invertir en noves empreses per tal d’ampliar i modernitzar els seus negocis. L’any 1863, el darrer hereu Baldrich va morir sense descendència, havent pagat els darrers deutes familiars però sense haver creat nous horitzons per als seus successors.

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Exit times in non-Markovian drifting continuous-time random-walk processes

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to the corrections ensuing from the non-Markovian nature of the process. We show that when drift and jumps have the same sign the relevant integral equations can be solved in closed form. The case when holding times have the classical Erlang distribution is considered in detail.

Sponge Mass Mortalities in a Warming Mediterranean Sea: Are Cyanobacteria-Harboring Species Worse Off?

Mass mortality events are increasing dramatically in all coastal marine environments. Determining the underlying causes of mass mortality events has proven difficult in the past because of the lack of prior quantitative data on populations and environmental variables. Four-year surveys of two shallow-water sponge species, Ircinia fasciculata and Sarcotragus spinosulum, were carried out in the western Mediterranean Sea. These surveys provided evidence of two severe sponge die-offs (total mortality ranging from 80 to 95% of specimens) occurring in the summers of 2008 and 2009. These events primarily affected I. fasciculata, which hosts both phototrophic and heterotrophic microsymbionts, while they did not affect S. spinosulum, which harbors only heterotrophic bacteria. We observed a significant positive correlation between the percentage of injured I. fasciculata specimens and exposure time to elevated temperature conditions in all populations, suggesting a key role of temperature in triggering mortality events. A comparative ultrastructural study of injured and healthy I. fasciculata specimens showed that cyanobacteria disappeared from injured specimens, which suggests that cyanobacterial decay could be involved in I. fasciculata mortality. A laboratory experiment confirmed that the cyanobacteria harbored by I. fasciculata displayed a significant reduction in photosynthetic efficiency in the highest temperature treatment. The sponge disease reported here led to a severe decrease in the abundance of the surveyed populations. It represents one of the most dramatic mass mortality events to date in the Mediterranean Sea

Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to test the intertemporal risk-return relation for 13 European stock markets. We identify country specific, euro area, and global macro-finance factors to determine the conditional risk and return. Empirically, the risk- return trade-off is generally negative. However, a Markov switching model documents that there is time-variation in this trade-off that is linked to the state of the economy. Keywords: Risk-return trade-off; Dynamic factor model; Macro-finance predictors; European stock markets; Markov switching model JEL Classifications: C22; G11; G12; G17

Ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from the Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Finite-temperature T matrix in a real-time formalism

A generalized off-shell unitarity relation for the two-body scattering T matrix in a many-body medium at finite temperature is derived, through a consistent real-time perturbation expansion by means of Feynman diagrams. We comment on perturbation schemes at finite temperature in connection with an erroneous formulation of the Dyson equation in a paper recently published.