Speed Dating y el mercado de solteros

Encontrar tu media naranja ocupa recursos, es un hecho crucial en el ser humano ser capaz de optimizarlos y hacer una elección que, como demostraremos, es racional aunque parezca que el amor sea ilógico.Considerando los posibles candidatos parte de la oferta y/o la demanda, los economistas crean modelos para explicar un mercadomatrimonial en el que la base de estudio son los clientes de Speed Dating, un sistema de citas rápidas. Siendo ésta la base principal,nuestro objetivo es realizar un proyecto en el que seamos capaces de establecer un prototipo de cliente, tanto femenino como masculino observando los posibles sesgos que tal población pueda mostrar para estudios de inferencia estadística sobre la población de los solteros.Las diferencias entre sexos son una motivación esencial, preguntarnos si puede marcar una diferencia en el punto de partida también. Éstas y demás preguntas las resolveremos en las siguientes páginas, ¿sabéis que en realidad nos unen más aspectos que el estado civil?, ¿no essospechoso que seamos aparentemente tan iguales?Si realmente la guerra de sexos existe aquí demostramos que avanzamos en aras de la igualdad: Los solteros del Speed Dating tienen altos niveles de estudios, dedican su tiempo de ocio a actividades culturales y de entretenimiento y disponen de una mentalidad abierta.La paz es posible pero no deja de implicar la incertidumbre sobre si una diferencia es positiva o negativa, cuestiones morales a parte. Si los candidatos de un sexo determinado superan al contrario, es lógico que, al haber mayor competencia busquen la diferenciación como ventaja comparativa para acceder a mejores términos de comercio, así que si no existe tal diferencia puede ser por dos motivos: realmente la igualdad impera en la sociedad como estudios sociológicos determinan, resaltando la homogamia, concepto propio de un mercado matrimonial “sin restricciones” o quizás, la heterogamia en las uniones está quedando en segundo lado, perdiendo en términos de apertura social.

The Speed of the Financial Revolution: Evidence from Hoare’s Bank

Finance is important for development, yet the onset of modern economic growth in Britain lagged the British financial revolution by over a century. We present evidence from a new West-End London private bank to explain this delay. Hoare’s Bank loaned primarily to a highly select and well-born clientele, although it did not discriminate against “unknown” borrowers in the early 18th century. It could not extend credit more generally because of government restrictions (usury limits) and policies (frequent wars). Britain’s financial development could have aided growth substantially, had it not been for the rigidities and turmoil introduced by government interference.

Subsampling the mean of heavy-tailed dependent observations

We establish the validity of subsampling confidence intervals for themean of a dependent series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions.Using point process theory, we study both linear and nonlinear GARCH-liketime series models. We propose a data-dependent method for the optimalblock size selection and investigate its performance by means of asimulation study.

Asymptotic robust inferences in the analysis of mean and covariance structures

Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.

Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers: A unifying approach

We propose new spanning tests that assess if the initial and additional assets share theeconomically meaningful cost and mean representing portfolios. We prove their asymptoticequivalence to existing tests under local alternatives. We also show that unlike two-step oriterated procedures, single-step methods such as continuously updated GMM yield numericallyidentical overidentifyng restrictions tests, so there is arguably a single spanning test.To prove these results, we extend optimal GMM inference to deal with singularities in thelong run second moment matrix of the influence functions. Finally, we test for spanningusing size and book-to-market sorted US stock portfolios.

Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Country asymmetries, endogenous product choice and the speed of trade liberalization

In a world with two countries which differ in size, we study theimpact of (the speed of) trade liberalization on firms' profitsand total welfare of the countries involved. Firms correctlyanticipate the pace of trade liberalization and take it intoaccount when deciding on their product choices, which areendogenously determined at the beginning of the game. Competitionin the marketplace then occurs either on quantities or on prices.As long as the autarkic phase continues, local firms are nationalmonopolists. When trade liberalization occurs, firms compete in aninternational duopoly. We analyze trade effects by using twodifferent models of product differentiation. Across all thespecifications adopted (and independently of the price v. quantitycompetition hypothesis), total welfare always unambiguously riseswith the speed of trade liberalization: Possible losses by firmsare always outweighed by consumers' gains, which come under theform of lower prices, enlarged variety of higher average qualitiesavailable. The effect on profits depends on the type of industryanalyzed. Two results in particular seem to be worth of mention.With vertical product differentiation and fixed costs of qualityimprovements, the expected size of the market faced by the firmsdetermines the incentive to invest in quality. The longer the periodof autarky, the lower the possibility that the firm from the smallcountry would be producing the high quality and be the leader in theinternational market when it opens. On the contrary, when trade opensimmediately, national markets do not play any role and firms fromdifferent countries have the same opportunity to become the leader.Hence, immediate trade liberalization might be in the interest ofproducers in the small country. In general, the lower the size of thesmall country, the more likely its firm will gain from tradeliberalization. Losses from the small country firm can arise when itis relegated to low quality good production and the domestic marketsize is not very small. With horizontal product differentiation (thehomogeneous good case being a limit case of it when costs ofdifferentiation tend to infinity), investments in differentiationbenefit both firms in equal manner. Firms from the small country do notrun the risk of being relegated to a lower competitive position undertrade. As a result, they would never lose from it. Instead, firms fromthe large country may still incur losses from the opening of trade whenthe market expansion effect is low (i.e. when the country is very largerelative to the other).

A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure ofinterest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices aredetermined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interestrate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and theshort--term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Assuming that both factorsfollow a joint Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equationis derived. We obtain a closed--form expression for bond prices andexamine its implications for the term structure of interest rates. We alsoderive a closed--form solution for interest rate derivatives prices. Thisexpression is applied to price European options on discount bonds andmore complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model'sperformance is presented.

Duality in mean-variance frontiers with conditioning information

Portfolio and stochastic discount factor (SDF) frontiers are usually regarded as dual objects, and researchers sometimes use one to answer questions about the other. However, the introduction of conditioning information and active portfolio strategies alters this relationship. For instance, the unconditional portfolio frontier in Hansen and Richard (1987) is not dual to the unconditional SDF frontier in Gallant, Hansen and Tauchen (1990). We characterise the dual objects to those frontiers, and relate them to the frontiers generated with managed portfolios, which are commonly used in empirical work. We also study the implications of a safe asset and other special cases.

Determination of sea surface salinity and wind speed by L-band microwave radiometry from a fixed platform

The European Space Agency Soil Moisture andOcean Salinity (SMOS) mission aims at obtaining global maps ofsoil moisture and sea surface salinity from space for large-scale andclimatic studies. It uses an L-band (1400–1427 MHz) MicrowaveInterferometric Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis to measurebrightness temperature of the earth’s surface at horizontal andvertical polarizations ( h and v). These two parameters will beused together to retrieve the geophysical parameters. The retrievalof salinity is a complex process that requires the knowledge ofother environmental information and an accurate processing ofthe radiometer measurements. Here, we present recent resultsobtained from several studies and field experiments that were partof the SMOS mission, and highlight the issues still to be solved.

Dispersal probability distributions and the wave-front speed problem

The speed and width of front solutions to reaction-dispersal models are analyzed both analytically and numerically. We perform our analysis for Laplace and Gaussian distribution kernels, both for delayed and nondelayed models. The results are discussed in terms of the characteristic parameters of the models

What do we actually mean by talent in business? Does it really matter?

[spa] La conceptuación de talento ha ido cobrando cada vez más importancia tanto para académicos como profesionales, con el fin de avanzar en el estudio de la gestión del talento. De hecho, la confusión sobre el significado de talento en la realidad empresarial impide llegar a un consenso sobre el concepto y la práctica de la gestión del talento. En este estudio teórico revisamos el concepto de talento en el mundo de la empresa con el fin de resumir lo que hemos aprendido y discutir las ventajas y limitaciones de las diferentes acepciones. Concluimos con la formulación de una definición de este concepto, ya que una correcta interpretación de la gestión del talento—por no hablar de una exitosa gestión del talento— depende de tener una comprensión clara de lo que se entiende por talento en un contexto organizativo. Además, con la definición de talento propuesta delimitamos el concepto de talento evitando algunos problemas detectados en las definiciones anteriores (por ejemplo, generalidades y tautologías), y poniendo de relieve las variables importantes que le afectan y lo hacen más manejable.

The mean-variance model from the inverse of the variance-covariance matrix

En este artículo, a partir de la inversa de la matriz de varianzas y covarianzas se obtiene el modelo Esperanza-Varianza de Markowitz siguiendo un camino más corto y matemáticamente riguroso. También se obtiene la ecuación de equilibrio del CAPM de Sharpe.

What do we actually mean by talent in business? Does it really matter?

[spa] La conceptuación de talento ha ido cobrando cada vez más importancia tanto para académicos como profesionales, con el fin de avanzar en el estudio de la gestión del talento. De hecho, la confusión sobre el significado de talento en la realidad empresarial impide llegar a un consenso sobre el concepto y la práctica de la gestión del talento. En este estudio teórico revisamos el concepto de talento en el mundo de la empresa con el fin de resumir lo que hemos aprendido y discutir las ventajas y limitaciones de las diferentes acepciones. Concluimos con la formulación de una definición de este concepto, ya que una correcta interpretación de la gestión del talento—por no hablar de una exitosa gestión del talento— depende de tener una comprensión clara de lo que se entiende por talento en un contexto organizativo. Además, con la definición de talento propuesta delimitamos el concepto de talento evitando algunos problemas detectados en las definiciones anteriores (por ejemplo, generalidades y tautologías), y poniendo de relieve las variables importantes que le afectan y lo hacen más manejable.

Modeling premartensitic effects in Ni2MnGa: A mean-field and Monte Carlo simulation study

ic first-order transition line ending in a critical point. This critical point is responsible for the existence of large premartensitic fluctuations which manifest as broad peaks in the specific heat, not always associated with a true phase transition. The main conclusion is that premartensitic effects result from the interplay between the softness of the anomalous phonon driving the modulation and the magnetoelastic coupling. In particular, the premartensitic transition occurs when such coupling is strong enough to freeze the involved mode phonon. The implication of the results in relation to the available experimental data is discussed.