Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk and overlapping generations

A number of existing studies have concluded that risk sharing allocations supported by competitive, incomplete markets equilibria are quantitatively close to first-best. Equilibrium asset prices in these models have been difficult to distinguish from those associated with a complete markets model, the counterfactual features of which have been widely documented. This paper asks if life cycle considerations, in conjunction with persistent idiosyncratic shocks which become more volatile during aggregate downturns, can reconcile the quantitative properties of the competitive asset pricing framework with those of observed asset returns. We begin by arguing that data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics support the plausibility of such a shock process. Our estimates suggest a high degree of persistence as well as a substantial increase in idiosyncratic conditional volatility coincident with periods of low growth in U.S. GNP. When these factors are incorporated in a stationary overlapping generations framework, the implications for the returns on risky assets are substantial. Plausible parameterizations of our economy are able to generate Sharpe ratios which match those observed in U.S. data. Our economy cannot, however, account for the level of variability of stock returns, owing in large part to the specification of its production technology.

The risk of divorce and household saving behavior

We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the savingbehaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of theeffect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of marital dissolution. We analyze the savingbehaviour over time of couples who were married before the law was passed. We proposea difference-in-differences approach where we use as comparison groups either marriedcouples in other European countries (not affected by the law change), or Irish familieswho did not experience a significant increase in the expected risk of divorce (such as veryreligious families, or single individuals). Our results suggest that the increase in the riskof divorce brought about by the law was followed by an increase in the propensity to saveof married couples, consistent with a rise in precautionary savings interpretation. Anincrease in the risk of marital dissolution of about 40 percent led to a 7 to 13 percent risein the proportion of married couples reporting positive savings.

Entrepreneurial risk, investment and innovation

In this paper I develop a general equilibrium model with risk averse entrepreneurialfirms and with public firms. The model predicts that an increase in uncertainty reducesthe propensity of entrepreneurial firms to innovate, while it does not affect thepropensity of public firms to innovate. Furthermore, it predicts that the negativeeffect of uncertainty on innovation is stronger for the less diversified entrepreneurialfirms, and is stronger in the absence of financing frictions in the economy. In thesecond part of the paper I test these predictions on a dataset of small and mediumItalian manufacturing firms.

A simple model of multiple equilibria based on risk

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless, while the other is a risky activity that creates jobs.Equilibrium is unique under full insurance. If investment is fully insured but unemployment risk is uninsured, then precautionary saving behavior dampens output fluctuations. However, if both investment and employment are uninsured, then an increase in unemployment gives agents an incentive to shift investment away from the risky asset, further increasing unemployment. This positive feedback may lead to multiple Pareto ranked equilibria. An overlapping generations version of the model may exhibit poverty traps or persistent multiplicity. Greater insurance is doubly beneficial in this context since it can both prevent multiplicity and promote risky investment.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Depression-like behavior is dependent on age in male SAMP8 mice

Aging is associated with an increased risk of depression in humans. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms of depression and its dependence on aging, here we study signs of depression in male SAMP8 mice. For this purpose, we used the forced swimming test (FST). The total floating time in the FST was greater in SAMP8 than in SAMR1 mice at 9 months of age; however, this difference was not observed in 12-month-old mice, when both strains are considered elderly. Of the two strains, only the SAMP8 animals responded to imipramine treatment. We also applied the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) and studied changes in the dopamine and serotonin (5-HT) uptake systems, the 5-HT2a/2c receptor density in the cortex, and levels of TPH2. The DST showed a significant difference between SAMR1 and SAMP8 mice at old age. SAMP8 exhibits an increase in 5-HT transporter density, with slight changes in 5-HT2a/2c receptor density. In conclusion, SAMP8 mice presented depression-like behavior that is dependent on senescence process, because it differs from SAMR1, senescence resistant strain.

Depression-like behavior is dependent on age in male SAMP8 mice

Aging is associated with an increased risk of depression in humans. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms of depression and its dependence on aging, here we study signs of depression in male SAMP8 mice. For this purpose, we used the forced swimming test (FST). The total floating time in the FST was greater in SAMP8 than in SAMR1 mice at 9 months of age; however, this difference was not observed in 12-month-old mice, when both strains are considered elderly. Of the two strains, only the SAMP8 animals responded to imipramine treatment. We also applied the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) and studied changes in the dopamine and serotonin (5-HT) uptake systems, the 5-HT2a/2c receptor density in the cortex, and levels of TPH2. The DST showed a significant difference between SAMR1 and SAMP8 mice at old age. SAMP8 exhibits an increase in 5-HT transporter density, with slight changes in 5-HT2a/2c receptor density. In conclusion, SAMP8 mice presented depression-like behavior that is dependent on senescence process, because it differs from SAMR1, senescence resistant strain.

Depression-like behavior is dependent on age in male SAMP8 mice

Aging is associated with an increased risk of depression in humans. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms of depression and its dependence on aging, here we study signs of depression in male SAMP8 mice. For this purpose, we used the forced swimming test (FST). The total floating time in the FST was greater in SAMP8 than in SAMR1 mice at 9 months of age; however, this difference was not observed in 12-month-old mice, when both strains are considered elderly. Of the two strains, only the SAMP8 animals responded to imipramine treatment. We also applied the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) and studied changes in the dopamine and serotonin (5-HT) uptake systems, the 5-HT2a/2c receptor density in the cortex, and levels of TPH2. The DST showed a significant difference between SAMR1 and SAMP8 mice at old age. SAMP8 exhibits an increase in 5-HT transporter density, with slight changes in 5-HT2a/2c receptor density. In conclusion, SAMP8 mice presented depression-like behavior that is dependent on senescence process, because it differs from SAMR1, senescence resistant strain.

Influence of Assisted Reproductive Techniques in the occurrence of weight discordance in twin gestations

Background:There is no actual evidence that the ART are directly related to the occurrence of weight discordance. In some studies, ART-­‐conceived twin pregnancies are at greater risk than non-­‐ART-­‐conceived ones for pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcome: the incidences of pregnancy-­‐induced hypertension, uterine bleeding, premature contractions, IUGR, fetal death, discordance, and cesarean section were significantly higher. Discordance rate was elevated (25.3% vs.17.0%) among ART twins, which can increase perinatal risk (increased incidence of SGA and NICU admission). Other studies say that perinatal and neonatal morbidity, gestational age at delivery, and birth weight are not affected by ART. Regarding the first trimester ultrasound, some studies didn’t notice significant differences in CRL disparity or birth weight discordance between spontaneous and ART-­‐ conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies. In ART-­‐conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies, CRL disparity may be associated with birth weight discordance. In some studies, CRL discordance in twin pregnancies in the first trimester was a frequent finding. Objectives: To analyze the association of the ART in the occurrence of weight discordance in the pregnancies between 2010 and 2013 in the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta, and to describe the proportion of diagnosis of growth discordance in the first trimester by the ultrasonography technology. Methods: A retrospective cohort study will be performed in those patients with twin pregnancies between 2010 and 2013, within the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta (HUJT). A retrospective and descriptive study will be done in those cases with discordance weight in the moment of the birth, in which the CRL will be studied in the first trimester ultrasound, describing the percentage of discordance detected in that moment. The general characteristics of the sample are going to be analyzed by Logistic RegressionInfluenceof

Influence of Assisted Reproductive Techniques in the occurrence of weight discordance in twin gestations

Background:There is no actual evidence that the ART are directly related to the occurrence of weight discordance. In some studies, ART-­‐conceived twin pregnancies are at greater risk than non-­‐ART-­‐conceived ones for pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcome: the incidences of pregnancy-­‐induced hypertension, uterine bleeding, premature contractions, IUGR, fetal death, discordance, and cesarean section were significantly higher. Discordance rate was elevated (25.3% vs.17.0%) among ART twins, which can increase perinatal risk (increased incidence of SGA and NICU admission). Other studies say that perinatal and neonatal morbidity, gestational age at delivery, and birth weight are not affected by ART. Regarding the first trimester ultrasound, some studies didn’t notice significant differences in CRL disparity or birth weight discordance between spontaneous and ART-­‐ conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies. In ART-­‐conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies, CRL disparity may be associated with birth weight discordance. In some studies, CRL discordance in twin pregnancies in the first trimester was a frequent finding. Objectives: To analyze the association of the ART in the occurrence of weight discordance in the pregnancies between 2010 and 2013 in the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta, and to describe the proportion of diagnosis of growth discordance in the first trimester by the ultrasonography technology. Methods: A retrospective cohort study will be performed in those patients with twin pregnancies between 2010 and 2013, within the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta (HUJT). A retrospective and descriptive study will be done in those cases with discordance weight in the moment of the birth, in which the CRL will be studied in the first trimester ultrasound, describing the percentage of discordance detected in that moment. The general characteristics of the sample are going to be analyzed by Logistic RegressionInfluenceof

Depression-like behavior is dependent on age in male SAMP8 mice

Aging is associated with an increased risk of depression in humans. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms of depression and its dependence on aging, here we study signs of depression in male SAMP8 mice. For this purpose, we used the forced swimming test (FST). The total floating time in the FST was greater in SAMP8 than in SAMR1 mice at 9 months of age; however, this difference was not observed in 12-month-old mice, when both strains are considered elderly. Of the two strains, only the SAMP8 animals responded to imipramine treatment. We also applied the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) and studied changes in the dopamine and serotonin (5-HT) uptake systems, the 5-HT2a/2c receptor density in the cortex, and levels of TPH2. The DST showed a significant difference between SAMR1 and SAMP8 mice at old age. SAMP8 exhibits an increase in 5-HT transporter density, with slight changes in 5-HT2a/2c receptor density. In conclusion, SAMP8 mice presented depression-like behavior that is dependent on senescence process, because it differs from SAMR1, senescence resistant strain.

Influence of Assisted Reproductive Techniques in the occurrence of weight discordance in twin gestations

Background:There is no actual evidence that the ART are directly related to the occurrence of weight discordance. In some studies, ART-­‐conceived twin pregnancies are at greater risk than non-­‐ART-­‐conceived ones for pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcome: the incidences of pregnancy-­‐induced hypertension, uterine bleeding, premature contractions, IUGR, fetal death, discordance, and cesarean section were significantly higher. Discordance rate was elevated (25.3% vs.17.0%) among ART twins, which can increase perinatal risk (increased incidence of SGA and NICU admission). Other studies say that perinatal and neonatal morbidity, gestational age at delivery, and birth weight are not affected by ART. Regarding the first trimester ultrasound, some studies didn’t notice significant differences in CRL disparity or birth weight discordance between spontaneous and ART-­‐ conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies. In ART-­‐conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies, CRL disparity may be associated with birth weight discordance. In some studies, CRL discordance in twin pregnancies in the first trimester was a frequent finding. Objectives: To analyze the association of the ART in the occurrence of weight discordance in the pregnancies between 2010 and 2013 in the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta, and to describe the proportion of diagnosis of growth discordance in the first trimester by the ultrasonography technology. Methods: A retrospective cohort study will be performed in those patients with twin pregnancies between 2010 and 2013, within the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta (HUJT). A retrospective and descriptive study will be done in those cases with discordance weight in the moment of the birth, in which the CRL will be studied in the first trimester ultrasound, describing the percentage of discordance detected in that moment. The general characteristics of the sample are going to be analyzed by Logistic RegressionInfluenceof

REGSTATTOOLS: freeware statistical tools for the analysis of disease population databases used in health and social studies

Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

Inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers and mortality in patients with HIV infection.

Background In the Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy trial, all-cause mortality was higher for participants randomized to intermittent, CD4-guided antiretroviral treatment (ART) (drug conservation [DC]) than continuous ART (viral suppression [VS]). We hypothesized that increased HIV-RNA levels following ART interruption induced activation of tissue factor pathways, thrombosis, and fibrinolysis. Methods and Findings Stored samples were used to measure six biomarkers: high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), amyloid A, amyloid P, D-dimer, and prothrombin fragment 1þ2. Two studies were conducted: (1) a nested case-control study for studying biomarker associations with mortality, and (2) a study to compare DC and VS participants for biomarker changes. For (1), markers were determined at study entry and before death (latest level) for 85 deaths and for two controls (n¼170) matched on country, age, sex, and date of randomization. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with logistic regression. For each biomarker, each of the three upper quartiles was compared to the lowest quartile. For (2), the biomarkers were assessed for 249 DC and 250 VS participants at study entry and 1 mo following randomization. Higher levels of hsCRP, IL-6, and D-dimer at study entry were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Unadjusted ORs (highest versus lowest quartile) were 2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-4.1; p¼0.05), 8.3 (95% CI, 3.3-20.8; p , 0.0001), and 12.4 (95% CI, 4.2-37.0; p , 0.0001), respectively. Associations were significant after adjustment, when the DC and VS groups were analyzed separately, and when latest levels were assessed. IL-6 and D-dimer increased at 1 mo by 30% and 16% in the DC group and by 0% and 5% in the VS group (p , 0.0001 for treatment difference for both biomarkers); increases in the DC group were related to HIV-RNA levels at 1 mo (p , 0.0001). In an expanded case-control analysis (four controls per case), the OR (DC/VS) for mortality was reduced from 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1-3.1; p¼0.02) to 1.5 (95% CI, 0.8-2.8) and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.8-2.5) after adjustment for latest levels of IL-6 and D-dimer, respectively. Conclusions IL-6 and D-dimer were strongly related to all-cause mortality. Interrupting ART may further increase the risk of death by raising IL-6 and D-dimer levels. Therapies that reduce the inflammatory response to HIV and decrease IL-6 and D-dimer levels may warrant investigation.

Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.