Current Account imbalances, thriftiness and the real exchange rate in a growing economy

This paper analyses the theoretical relevance of the dynamical aspects of growth on the discussion about the observed positive correlation between per capita real income and real exchange rates. With this purpose, we develop a simple exogenous growth model where the internal, external and intertemporal equilibrium conditions of a typical macroeconomic model are imposed; this last one through the inclusion of a balanced growth path for the foreign assets accumulation. The main result under this consideration is that the relationship defended by the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is no more so straightforward. In our particular approach, the mentioned bilateral relationship depends on a parameter measuring thriftiness in the economy. Therefore, the probability of ending up with a positive relationship between growth and real exchange rates -as the classical economic theory predicts- will be higher when the economy is able to maintain a minimum saving ratio. Moreover, given that our model considers a simple Keynesian consumption function, some explosive paths can also be possible.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Variational inequalities in Hilbert spaces with measures and optimal stopping problems

We study the existence theory for parabolic variational inequalities in weighted L2 spaces with respect to excessive measures associated with a transition semigroup. We characterize the value function of optimal stopping problems for finite and infinite dimensional diffusions as a generalized solution of such a variational inequality. The weighted L2 setting allows us to cover some singular cases, such as optimal stopping for stochastic equations with degenerate diffusion coeficient. As an application of the theory, we consider the pricing of American-style contingent claims. Among others, we treat the cases of assets with stochastic volatility and with path-dependent payoffs.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Sistema de información SIGARQ: desarrollo de un aplicativo S.I.G. para la gestión de la secuencia estratigráfica de una intervención arqueológica

El Sistema de Información Geográfica Arqueológico (SIGARQ), pretende ser una herramienta que permita integrar, gestionar y analizar todos aquellos datos procedentes de cualquier tipo de intervención arqueológica independientemente de la naturaleza del elemento patrimonial a estudiar y de la técnica de trabajo empleada en la intervención. Al mismo tiempo ha de permitir contextualizar cada una de las intervenciones y sus resultados en un marco geográfico más extenso. De esta manera, el proyecto actual también supone un avance de las potencialidades del sistema de cara a la gestión patrimonial del territorio y los estudios de carácter paisajístico.

An empirical analysis of wealth taxation: equity Vs.tax compliance

Capital taxation is currently under debate, basically due to problems of administrative control and proper assessment of the levied assets. We analyze both problems focusing on a capital tax, the annual wealth tax (WT), which is only applied in five OECD countries, being Spain one of them. We concentrate our analysis on top 1% adult population, which permits us to describe the evolution of wealth concentration in Spain along 1983-2001. On average top 1% holds about 18% of total wealth, which rises to 19% when tax incompliance and under-assessment is corrected for housing, the main asset. The evolution suggests wealth concentration has risen. Regarding WT, we analyze whether it helps to reduce wealth inequality or, on the contrary, it reinforces vertical inequity (due to especial concessions) and horizontal inequity (due to the de iure and to de facto different treatment of assets). We analyze in detail housing and equity shares. By means of a time series analysis, we relate the reported values with reasonable price indicators and proxies of the propensity to save. We infer net tax compliance is extremely low, which includes both what we commonly understand by (gross) tax compliance and the degree of under-assessment due to fiscal legislation (for housing). That is especially true for housing, whose level of net tax compliance is well below 50%. Hence, we corroborate the difficulties in taxing capital, and so cast doubts on the current role of the WT in Spain in reducing wealth inequality.

Limited liability and mechanism design in procurement

In the presence of cost uncertainty, limited liability introduces the possibility of default in procurement with its associated bank-ruptcy costs. When financial soundness is not perfectly observable, we show that incentive compatibility implies that financially less sound contractors are selected with higher probability in any feasible mechanism. Informational rents are associated with unsound financial situations. By selecting the financially weakest contractor, stronger price competition (auctions) may not only increase the probability of default but also expected rents. Thus, weak conditions are suffcient for auctions to be suboptimal. In particular, we show that pooling firms with higher assets may reduce the cost of procurement even when default is costless for the sponsor.

Start-up conditions and the performance of women – and men- controlled businesses in manufacturating industries

Recent research on the economic performance of women-controlled firms suggests that their underperformance may not result from differences in the managerial ability of women as compared to men, but it can be the result of different levels of start-up resources. Using accounting data, this paper examines the effects that selected start-up conditions have on the economic performance observed in a sample of 4450 Spanish manufacturing firms. The results indicate significant differences regarding the initial conditions, showing lower levels of assets and number of employees what have implications on the economic performance of women-controlled firms.

Is the Spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax incompatible with the free movement of workers and capital?: The reasoned opinion of the EU Commission IP/10/513

The aim of my speech is answering to the question if the Spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax is incompatible with the free movement of workers and capital. We are going to pay special attention to the European Commission’s request to Spain to change its Inheritance and Gift Tax provisions for Non-Residents or Assets held abroad. In order to answer to the question mentioned above five points will be explained. At first place I am going to describe the infrengement procedure established in the Article 258 that the EU Commission can follow when a Member State doesn’t comply with Community Law. At second place, we are going to explain what is the content of the EU Commission delivered on 5th of may 2010 regarding the spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax. Then, we will analise what establishes the Community Law regarding the freedom of workers and capital and how they are understood by the EU Court of Justice in similar cases. Finally, we are going to provide possible amendments that Spain could undertake.

Technological innovation in creative clusters. The case of laser in conservation of artworks in Florence

The field of laser application to the restoration and cleaning of cultural assets is amongst the most thriving developments of recent times. Ablative laser technological systems are able to clean and protect inestimable works of art subject to atmospheric agents and degradation over time. This new technology, which has been developing for the last forty year, is now available to restorers and has received a significant success all over Europe. An important contribution in the process of laser innovation has been carried out in Florence by local actors belonging to a creative cluster. The objects of the analysis are the genesis of this innovation in this local Florentine context, and the relationships among the main actors who have contributed in it. The study investigates how culture can play a part in the generation of ideas and innovations, and which are the creative environments that can favour it. In this context, the issue of laser technologies for the restoration of cultural heritage has been analysed as a case study in the various paths taken by the Creative Capacity of the Culture (CCC).

La redimensió de la llibertat civil en l'àmbit de les relacions familiars

La virtualitat de la formulació de la llibertat civil com a principi de l'ordenament civil català és, precisament, que permet projectar-la sobre qualsevol àmbit en el qual el poder de decisió resti en poder dels particulars. Així doncs, el legislador parteix del respecte per a l'autonomia privada com a eina d'autoregulació d'interessos. A Catalunya, el principi de llibertat civil en la regulació de les relacions familiars és més extens que en el Codi Civil, d'acord amb la pròpia tradició jurídica, palesada en tots els textos legals. La llibertat civil té una àmplia projecció en l'organització de les institucions de protecció de la persona. El legislador ha optat per un sistema de familiar, amb la justa intervenció judicial de control (p.ex., la designació voluntària d'òrgans de protecció té caràcter vinculant pel jutge). El principi de llibertat civil es veu enormement enfortit en la futura legislació representada avui per l'encara Avantprojecte de Llei del Llibre segon Codi Civil de Catalunya. L'Avantprojecte també vindrà a reforçar la llibertat dels contraents o cònjuges pel que fa a l'autorregulació de les seves relacions patrimonials intensificant la possibilitat de pactes abdicatius o limitatius dels drets derivats d'una futura ruptura i introduint una regulació al respecte amb atenció als límits que la doctrina i la jurisprudència ha vingut imposant a les experiències pràctiques en aquest àmbit. Les unions estables no es poden sostreure a l'aplicació dels mínims legals: la llibertat de ser només “de fet” pràcticament no existeix. Ens trobem davant una qüestió d'ordre públic perquè és una nova modalitat de família a la que s'ha de dispensar la protecció constitucional (art. 39 CE). La llibertat es limita a escollir entre que el vincle o unió sigui matrimonial o no. L'Avantprojecte incrementa la intervenció de l'Estat: la llibertat es redueix al contingut dels pactes reguladors de la convivència i de la seva crisi.

Incorporació de criteris d’eficiència en les dissolucions matrimonials a Catalunya: estudi comparatiu amb el dret de familia de l’Estat de Nova York

El règim econòmic matrimonial català i el de l’estat de Nova York presenten un paral·lelisme estructural important ja que tots dos territoris han adoptat el mateix règim econòmic matrimonial, el de separació de béns. No obstant, la seva implementació i la conseqüent pràctica jurisprudencial difereix significativament. El dret de família de l’estat de Nova York, se situa en un context de common law, és a dir, en un sistema judicial que evoluciona ràpidament i s’adapta relativament ràpid a les necessitats d’una realitat social que està en constant evolució. El legislador català, tot i que ha fet esforços a nivell de donar respostes als nous reptes plantejat per la realitat familiar catalana, encara està lluny de fer front a problemes d’aplicació que sovint planteja el règim econòmic matrimonial dels cònjuges catalans. D’altra banda, la realitat social catalana no és significativament diferent a la realitat nord-americana ateses les noves composicions familiars amb famílies monoparentals, fills de diferents matrimonis i una alta proporció de divorcis per matrimoni. D’altra banda, l’estructura patrimonial de les famílies, tant les catalanes com les novaiorqueses també presenten una estructura patrimonial similar formada no només per la residència habitual sinó per patrimoni intangible i per inversions que comencen a meritar durant el matrimoni però que vencen una vegada aquest vincle s’ha dissolt. Ha resultat constructiu, doncs, comparar els règims i extreure lliçons del règim novaiorquès que s’han revelat molt útils per a la nostra pràctica catalana. Així doncs, l’objectiu d’aquest projecte de recerca ha estat estudiar el règim econòmic matrimonial català i el novaiorquès que ha culminat amb la formulació de propostes normatives i de pràctica jurisprudencial que permetran modernitzar i actualitzar l’aplicació del règim econòmic matrimonial català i d’aquesta manera adaptar-lo a la nova realitat social i econòmica de les famílies catalanes.

GestAMic : Treball Fi de Carrera - Interacció Humana amb els Ordinadors

El TFC és un estudi de millores a implantar pel que fa a usabilitat en una aplicació anomenada GestAMic mitjançant els coneixements adquirits en la assignatura d'IHO.GestAMic (Gestió d'Actius de Microinformàtica) és una eina que conté tota la base de dades de l'inventari d'actius del parc microinformàtic (CMDB) del Grup VW a Espanya, l'eina és gestionada per T-Systems Iberia. Aquesta aplicació permet fer-ne Altes, Baixes, Modificacions i Consultes dels actius sobre la CMDB.