Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Efficiency of informational transfer in regular and complex networks

We analyze the process of informational exchange through complex networks by measuring network efficiencies. Aiming to study nonclustered systems, we propose a modification of this measure on the local level. We apply this method to an extension of the class of small worlds that includes declustered networks and show that they are locally quite efficient, although their clustering coefficient is practically zero. Unweighted systems with small-world and scale-free topologies are shown to be both globally and locally efficient. Our method is also applied to characterize weighted networks. In particular we examine the properties of underground transportation systems of Madrid and Barcelona and reinterpret the results obtained for the Boston subway network.

A measure of stability as a criterion for the verification and analysis of simulation models

The aim of this study is to define a new statistic, PVL, based on the relative distance between the likelihood associated with the simulation replications and the likelihood of the conceptual model. Our results coming from several simulation experiments of a clinical trial show that the PVL statistic range can be a good measure of stability to establish when a computational model verifies the underlying conceptual model. PVL improves also the analysis of simulation replications because only one statistic is associated with all the simulation replications. As well it presents several verification scenarios, obtained by altering the simulation model, that show the usefulness of PVL. Further simulation experiments suggest that a 0 to 20 % range may define adequate limits for the verification problem, if considered from the viewpoint of an equivalence test.

Identifying pedagogical, technological and organizational barriers in virtual learning environments

Virtual learning environments are online spaces where learners interact with other learners, teachers, resources and the environment in itself. Although technology is meant to enhance the learning process, there are important issues regarding pedagogical and organizational aspects that must be addressed. In this paper we review the barriers detected in a virtual university which exclusively uses Internet as the main channel of communication, with no face-to-face requirements exceptthose related to final evaluation.

Implementació d'un demostrador wireless: network cording i virtualització d'interfícies sense fils

El treball realitzat en aquest projecte es basa en l'implementació d'un demostrador wireless, i més específicament, en l'estudi de les tècniques network coding i virtualització. Network coding és un nou mètode de transmissió de dades que es basa en la codificació de paquets per incrementar el rendiment fins ara obtingut als mètodes de transmissió convencionals. La virtualització és una tècnica que consisteix en compartir de forma més eficient els recursos d'un sistema. En el nostre cas s'utilitzarà la virtualització per dividir una interfície sense fils en diferents usuaris virtuals transmetent i rebent dades simultàniament. L'objectiu del projecte és realitzar un seguit de proves i estudis per veure els avantatges d'aquestes dues tècniques.

The agreement between ipsative and normative questionnaires using compositional data analysis techniques

The main instrument used in psychological measurement is the self-report questionnaire. One of its majordrawbacks however is its susceptibility to response biases. A known strategy to control these biases hasbeen the use of so-called ipsative items. Ipsative items are items that require the respondent to makebetween-scale comparisons within each item. The selected option determines to which scale the weight ofthe answer is attributed. Consequently in questionnaires only consisting of ipsative items everyrespondent is allotted an equal amount, i.e. the total score, that each can distribute differently over thescales. Therefore this type of response format yields data that can be considered compositional from itsinception.Methodological oriented psychologists have heavily criticized this type of item format, since the resultingdata is also marked by the associated unfavourable statistical properties. Nevertheless, clinicians havekept using these questionnaires to their satisfaction. This investigation therefore aims to evaluate bothpositions and addresses the similarities and differences between the two data collection methods. Theultimate objective is to formulate a guideline when to use which type of item format.The comparison is based on data obtained with both an ipsative and normative version of threepsychological questionnaires, which were administered to 502 first-year students in psychology accordingto a balanced within-subjects design. Previous research only compared the direct ipsative scale scoreswith the derived ipsative scale scores. The use of compositional data analysis techniques also enables oneto compare derived normative score ratios with direct normative score ratios. The addition of the secondcomparison not only offers the advantage of a better-balanced research strategy. In principle it also allowsfor parametric testing in the evaluation

Relay-assisted transmission and radio resource management for wireless networks

The following paper presents an overview of the Ph.D Thesis1 presented in [1], which compiles all the research done during the period of time between 2004-2007. In that dissertation the relay-assisted transmission with half-duplex relays is analyzed from different points of view. This study is motivated by the necessity of finding innovative solutions to cope with the requirements of next generation wireless services, and with current radio technology. The use of relayed communications represents a change of paradigm of conventional communications, and requires the definition and evaluation of protocols to be applied to single or multiple-user relay communication. With the two fold goal of enhancing spectral efficiency and homogenize service in cellular communications, system design is investigated at physical (type of transmissions of the relay, decoding mode, ..) and upper layers (resource allocation, dynamic link control).