On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Monetary policy and rational asset price bubbles

I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on arational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interestrates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter, through its positive effect on bubble growth. Theoptimal monetary policy seeks to strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. The paper'smain findings call into question the theoretical foundations of the casefor "leaning against the wind" monetary policies.

A noninvasive method for measuring the velocity of diffuse hydrothermal flow by tracking moving refractive index anomalies

Diffuse flow velocimetry (DFV) is introduced as a new, noninvasive, optical technique for measuring the velocity of diffuse hydrothermal flow. The technique uses images of a motionless, random medium (e.g.,rocks) obtained through the lens of a moving refraction index anomaly (e.g., a hot upwelling). The method works in two stages. First, the changes in apparent background deformation are calculated using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The deformation vectors are determined by a cross correlation of pixel intensities across consecutive images. Second, the 2-D velocity field is calculated by cross correlating the deformation vectors between consecutive PIV calculations. The accuracy of the method is tested with laboratory and numerical experiments of a laminar, axisymmetric plume in fluids with both constant and temperaturedependent viscosity. Results show that average RMS errors are ∼5%–7% and are most accurate in regions of pervasive apparent background deformation which is commonly encountered in regions of diffuse hydrothermal flow. The method is applied to a 25 s video sequence of diffuse flow from a small fracture captured during the Bathyluck’09 cruise to the Lucky Strike hydrothermal field (September 2009). The velocities of the ∼10°C–15°C effluent reach ∼5.5 cm/s, in strong agreement with previous measurements of diffuse flow. DFV is found to be most accurate for approximately 2‐D flows where background objects have a small spatial scale, such as sand or gravel

New multiple matched filter: design and experimental realization

A method of making a multiple matched filter which allows the recognition of different characters in successive planes in simple conditions is proposed. The generation of the filter is based on recording on the same plate the Fourier transforms of the different patterns to be recognized, each of which is affected by different spherical phase factors because the patterns have been placed at different distances from the lens. This is proved by means of experiments with a triple filter which allows satisfactory recognition of three characters.

Diffraction theory of Fresnel lenses encoded in low-resolution devices

A mathematical model that describes the behavior of low-resolution Fresnel lenses encoded in any low-resolution device (e.g., a spatial light modulator) is developed. The effects of low-resolution codification, such the appearance of new secondary lenses, are studied for a general case. General expressions for the phase of these lenses are developed, showing that each lens behaves as if it were encoded through all pixels of the low-resolution device. Simple expressions for the light distribution in the focal plane and its dependence on the encoded focal length are developed and commented on in detail. For a given codification device an optimum focal length is found for best lens performance. An optimization method for codification of a single lens with a short focal length is proposed.

New multiple matched filter: design and experimental realization

A method of making a multiple matched filter which allows the recognition of different characters in successive planes in simple conditions is proposed. The generation of the filter is based on recording on the same plate the Fourier transforms of the different patterns to be recognized, each of which is affected by different spherical phase factors because the patterns have been placed at different distances from the lens. This is proved by means of experiments with a triple filter which allows satisfactory recognition of three characters.

Noves aportacions sobre agricultura i alimentació durant la primera edat del ferro a Catalunya: dades de l'assentament de Sant Jaume/Mas d'en Serrà (Alcanar, Montsià)

Els resultats de l'estudi arqueobotànic realitzat sobre diferents àmbits de l'assentament de Sant Jaume aporta noves dades al coneixement de la gestió dels recursos vegetals de la protohistòria del nordest peninsular. El registre arqueològic constata una certa homogeneïtzació en la funcionalitat dels àmbits, que s'interpreten com a magatzems en el pis superior i espais d'estabulació a l'inferior. L'àmbit millor representat és l'A4, que conserva com a fet singular un elevat nombre de restes de llavors i fruits amb molt bon estat de conservació. Els tàxons conreats més importants són la pisana (Triticum dicoccum) i les guixes i guixols (Lathyrus sativus i Lathyrus cicera), seguits d¿una menor proporció d'ordi vestit (Hordeum vulgare), blat nu (comú/dur) (Triticum aestivum/durum), pèsol (Pisum sativum), llentia (Lens culinaris) i erb (Vicia ervilia). D'altra banda, el registre arqueobotànic del pis inferior de l'àmbit A4 sembla posar en evidència la presència de l¿associació de pisana i guixa, destinada a l'alim.

Registro arqueobotánico de Cataluña occidental durante el II y I milenio a.n.e.

Se presenta una síntesis de los resultados obtenidos en los estudios de semillas y frutos realizados durante los últimos años en la Cataluña Occidental (especialmente en el llamado Llano Occidental Catalán) en yacimientos del II y I milenio a.n.e. Entre las plantas cultivadas destacan claramente los cereales, sobre todo la cebada vestida (Hordeum vulgare) y el trigo común/duro (Triticum aestivum/durum), con escasa presencia de leguminosas, siendo las más representadas la lenteja (Lens culinaris) y el guisante (Pisum sativum). Nuevos cultivos como los mijos (Panicum miliaceum y Setaria italica) o el lino (Linum usitatissimum) se detectan ya desde mediados del II milenio, mientras que otros como la avena (Avena sativa) se introducen en época ibérica. Se han recuperado también testimonios de recolección, como las bellotas (Quercus sp.) o la uva silvestre (Vitis vinifera ssp. sylvestris), así como de la vegetación arvense, principalmente el raygrás (Lolium sp.).

Synthesis of highly focused fields with circular polarization at any transverse plane

We develop a method for generating focused vector beams with circular polarization at any transverse plane. Based on the Richards-Wolf vector model, we derive analytical expressions to describe the propagation of these set of beams near the focal area. Since the polarization and the amplitude of the input beam are not uniform, an interferometric system capable of generating spatially-variant polarized beams has to be used. In particular, this wavefront is manipulated by means of spatial light modulators displaying computer generated holograms and subsequently focused using a high numerical aperture objective lens. Experimental results using a NA=0.85 system are provided: irradiance and Stokes images of the focused field at different planes near the focal plane are presented and compared with those obtained by numerical simulation.

Braving the Storm: How Are Global Biofuel Policies Sustained Despite Being Contested? An Analysis of the Biofuel Discourses of the EU, Brazil and Mozambique

Considered as a remedy to multiple problems that our world is facing, biofuels are nowadays promoted on a global scale. Despite this globalised approach, however, biofuels are heavily contested. Not only the social implications of biofuels are disputed and uncertain, particularly in countries of the global South, but also their environmental and economic rationales. Given these huge controversies, policies promoting biofuels would seem difficult to maintain. Yet, support for them has been surprisingly well established on the political agendas. With the aim of understanding this puzzle, this study asks how the dominant approach to biofuels has been sustained on a global level. In order to answer this question, the meanings and assumptions in biofuel discourses are explored through the lens of Maarten Hajer’s “argumentative” discourse analysis. Based on the existence of a “partnership for sustainable bioenergy” between the EU, Brazil and Mozambique, the study takes these three locations as case studies. The analysis reveals that various discursive strategies, including a particular problem construction and the use of two main story-lines, have played an important role in ensuring the permanence of the global approach to biofuels. Moreover, while the discourse of critics against biofuels demonstrates that there is room for contestation, the analysis finds that the opponents’ discourse largely fails to target the most salient justification for biofuels. A more effective strategy for critics would therefore be to also question the problem constructions underpinning this main justification in the global discourse.

Design of highly focused fields that remain unpolarized on axis

Research on the properties of highly focused fields mainly involved fully polarized light, whereas partially polarized waves received less attention. The aim of this Letter is to provide an appropriate framework, for designing some features of the focused field, when dealing with incoming partially polarized beams. In particular, in this Letter, we describe how to get an unpolarized field on the axis of a high numerical aperture objective lens. Some numerical results that corroborate theoretical predictions are provided.