Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Association between HIV status and HIV knowledge in the population attending Non-Governmental Organizations to perform the rapid HIV test in Catalonia

Human Immunodeficiency Virus continues to be a pandemic. Spain is one of the European countries with the highest incidence of HIV. Within Catalonia, Spain many projects have been implemented with the intention of improving HIV knowledge and lowering the incidence. HIV knowledge is also known to have a positive effect on lowering stigma and discrimination of the people living with HIV. However, few studies study the distribution of HIV knowledge and its association to HIV status, age, sex, geographical zone of origin and level of education within the same study. Objectives: To identify if HIV knowledge is associated with HIV status, age, sex, geographical zone of origin and level of education. Method: Quantitative, cross-sectional, centre-based study comprising of people receiving an HIV test in Catalonia, Spain. Data will be collected from the 11 HIV Non-Governmental Organisations in Catalonia, Spain. The Brief HIV Knowledge Scale will be used to assess HIV knowledge; information from the HIV test session will be used to assess HIV status, age, sex, geographic zone of origin and level of education. The association between HIV knowledge and the afore mentioned variables will then be calculated.

Incongruence between test statistics and P values in medical papers

Given an observed test statistic and its degrees of freedom, one may compute the observed P value with most statistical packages. It is unknown to what extent test statistics and P values are congruent in published medical papers. Methods:We checked the congruence of statistical results reported in all the papers of volumes 409–412 of Nature (2001) and a random sample of 63 results from volumes 322–323 of BMJ (2001). We also tested whether the frequencies of the last digit of a sample of 610 test statistics deviated from a uniform distribution (i.e., equally probable digits).Results: 11.6% (21 of 181) and 11.1% (7 of 63) of the statistical results published in Nature and BMJ respectively during 2001 were incongruent, probably mostly due to rounding, transcription, or type-setting errors. At least one such error appeared in 38% and 25% of the papers of Nature and BMJ, respectively. In 12% of the cases, the significance level might change one or more orders of magnitude. The frequencies of the last digit of statistics deviated from the uniform distribution and suggested digit preference in rounding and reporting.Conclusions: this incongruence of test statistics and P values is another example that statistical practice is generally poor, even in the most renowned scientific journals, and that quality of papers should be more controlled and valued

Disipación y energía de los ciclones tropicales: ajustes y test de bondad de ajuste

Los ciclones tropicales son los fenómenos climatológicos más destructivos. El PDI y otros índices que se definen aquí permiten estimar la energía que éstos poseen. Tales índices ajustan una ley de potencias en una parte de su recorrido. En el presente trabajo se procede al ajuste de las respectivas leyes de potencias de los índices para los ciclones tropicales en el norte del Océano Atlántico y noreste del Pacífico en los periodos de 1988 a 2010 y de 2001 a 2010 respectivamente, a partir de los datos registrados por el NOAA.

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocksbased on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the commonjoins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems.Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomialrandom function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and areexplicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistenciesof the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possiblycontradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that theprobabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere inthe domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identicalmultinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomialdistributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts canbe considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so calledHardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This isa generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignmentof phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilitiesdo not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observedprobabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation ofthe multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shiftcan be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithmto perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and realdata are presented.Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases,joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinbergmanifold, Aitchison geometry

La incapacidad de amar en A pair of blue eyes de Thomas Hardy

A Pair of Blue Eyes ha estat considerada tradicionalment como el primer exemple de pessimisme i fatalisme en les novel·les de Hardy. Aquest treball pretén mostrar que la novel·la no segueix aquest patró, sinó que en base al model aristotèlic de catarsis, mostra l’ error que suposa seguir falsos models amorosos.

Aplicació web de generació i autoavaluació d'exàmens tipus test basat en el criptosistema knapsack

Creació d'una aplicació web que genera exàmens tipus test agafant les preguntes d'un banc de preguntes. Genera una versió per cada alumne del mateix exàmen, amb les preguntes desordenades i les opcions també desordenades. A cada resposta se li associa un número. El resultat de l'exàmen és la suma de les repostes. Mitjançant el criptosistema Knapsack ficant a l'aplicació el número resultat de l'exàmen s'obté la nota.

Internal test sets studies in a group of antimalarials

Topological indices have been applied to build QSAR models for a set of 20 antimalarial cyclic peroxy cetals. In order to evaluate the reliability of the proposed linear models leave-n-out and Internal Test Sets (ITS) approaches have been considered. The proposed procedure resulted in a robust and consensued prediction equation and here it is shown why it is superior to the employed standard cross-validation algorithms involving multilinear regression models

Influència de la dislèxia en els resultats d'eficàcia del test IGF

En el present treball es pretén determinar si existeix una correlació entre la dislèxia (dificultat en l'aprenentatge de la lectura i l'escriptura) i els resultats en el test IGF (intel·ligència general i factorial), concretament els resultats d'eficàcia. Es va seleccionar una mostra d'alumnes a la que, en primer lloc, es va diagnosticar o descartar la dislèxia, i després se'ls-hi va administrar l'IGF. No es van observar diferències significatives en els resultats d'eficàcia del test IGF entre dislèxics i no-dislèxics en dits resultats.

Cloud code test IDE

L'objectiu principal d'aquest projecte final de carrera consisteix en desenvolupar una aplicació web que oferisca un entorn simplificat de desenvolupament integrat (IDE) en el llenguatge C/C++, on els estudiants de batxillerat (o secundària en general) puguen iniciar-se en el seu estudi. La finalitat és proveir un entorn agradable a l'alumnat perquè puga seguir correctament les pràctiques que proposa el professor independentment de les circumstàncies pròpies d'aquest (ubicació temporal o permanentde l'alumnat, sistema operatiu que utilitza, dispositiu emprat per a fer les pràctiques, etc..).

XMNS, aplicació web per a la correcció automàtica de proves tipus test

Aplicació web per a la correcció automàtica de proves tipus test realitzada amb un framework PHP MVC propi i no comercial.

Motivation, Test Scores, and Economic Success

This paper argues that low-stakes test scores, available in surveys, may be partially determined by test-taking motivation, which is associated with personality traits but not with cognitive ability. Therefore, such test score distributions may not be informative regarding cognitive ability distributions. Moreover, correlations, found in survey data, between high test scores and economic success may be partially caused by favorable personality traits. To demonstrate these points, I use the coding speed test that was administered without incentives to National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY) participants. I suggest that due to its simplicity its scores may especially depend on individuals' test-taking motivation. I show that controlling for conventional measures of cognitive skills, the coding speed scores are correlated with future earnings of male NLSY participants. Moreover, the coding speed scores of highly motivated, though less educated, population (potential enlists to the armed forces) are higher than NLSY participants' scores. I then use controlled experiments to show that when no performance-based incentives are provided, participants' characteristics, but not their cognitive skills, affect effort invested in the coding speed test. Thus, participants with the same ability (measured by their scores on an incentivized test) have significantly different scores on tests without performance- based incentives.

Behavioral Assumptions and Management Ability: A Tentative Test

The paper explores the consequences that relying on different behavioral assumptions in training managers may have on their future performance. We argue that training with an emphasis on the standard assumptions used in economics (rationality and self-interest) leads future managers to rely excessively on rational and explicit safeguarding, crowding out instinctive contractual heuristics and signaling a 'bad' type to potential partners. In contrast, human assumptions used in management theories, because of their diverse, implicit and even contradictory nature, do not conflict with the innate set of cooperative tools and may provide a good training ground for such tools. We present tentative confirmatory evidence by examining how the weight given to behavioral assumptions in the core courses of the top 100 business schools influences the average salaries of their MBA graduates. Controlling for the average quality of their students and some other schools' characteristics, average salaries are significantly greater for those schools whose core MBA courses contain a higher proportion of management courses as opposed to courses based on economics or technical disciplines.