The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

Expresiones para la determinación del factor de fricción en ríos de fuerte pendiente

Con base en una selección de 145 datos pertenecientes a ríos de montaña de fuerte pendiente (³ 1%) se han desarrollado cinco expresiones para determinar el factor de fricción de Darcy-Weisbach. La primera expresión se fundamenta en la aplicación para flujo turbulento rugoso en lámina libre de la ley semilogarítmica de Prandtl-Kárman, que es función de la sumersión relativa (relación entre el calado medio y la rugosidad equivalente). La segunda y tercera corresponden a correciones de la primera para flujo macrorrugoso, propuestas por Thompson y Campbell (1979) y Aguirre-Pe y Fuentes (1990) respectivamente. La cuarta ecuación consiste una en potencia de la sumersión relativa, mientras que la quinta corrige la fórmula anterior incorporando una potencia de la pendiente, tal y como propugnan Meunier (1989) y Rickenmann (1990). Las expresiones derivadas presentan un ajuste significativo, si se tienen en cuenta las limitaciones hidrométricas existentes en ríos de material grueso y fuerte pendiente. Destaca el mayor ajuste conseguido con las ecuaciones con las ecuaciones del tipo potencial frente a las del tipo semilogarítmico. Se ha encontrado, asimismo, una capacidad de predicción ligeramente superior en aquellas expresiones que incluyen modificaciones respecto a la ecuación original, ecuaciones del tipo segundo, tercero y quinto anteriormente indicado.

Paranoia and post-traumatic stress disorder in the months after a physical assault: a longitudinal study examining shared and differential predictors.

Background: Being physically assaulted is known to increase the risk of the occurrence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms but it may also skew judgements about the intentions of other people. The objectives of the study were to assess paranoia and PTSD after an assault and to test whether theory-derived cognitive factors predicted the persistence of these problems. Method: At 4 weeks after hospital attendance due to an assault, 106 people were assessed on multiple symptom measures (including virtual reality) and cognitive factors from models of paranoia and PTSD. The symptom measures were repeated 3 and 6 months later. Results: Factor analysis indicated that paranoia and PTSD were distinct experiences, though positively correlated. At 4 weeks, 33% of participants met diagnostic criteria for PTSD, falling to 16% at follow-up. Of the group at the first assessment, 80% reported that since the assault they were excessively fearful of other people, which over time fell to 66%. Almost all the cognitive factors (including information-processing style during the trauma, mental defeat, qualities of unwanted memories, self-blame, negative thoughts about self, worry, safety behaviours, anomalous internal experiences and cognitive inflexibility) predicted later paranoia and PTSD, but there was little evidence of differential prediction. Conclusions: Paranoia after an assault may be common and distinguishable from PTSD but predicted by a strikingly similar range of factors.

La defensa del comunal y de los usos colectivos, León (1800-1936): ¿una "economia moral"?

Peer-reviewed

Limnological research in the Iberian Peninsula: a ten-year survey of published literature.

Research on limnology in southern Europe had achieved a notable presence in the international arena before the onset of the current dramatic cuts in public investment in science. We assessed the limnological research published in peer-reviewed journals by Spanish and Portuguese (i.e., Iberian) researchers during the decade prior to the economic recession (2000 to 2009). The Thompson Reuters Web of Knowledge database was used to retrieve all publications on limnology authored by researchers affiliated with Spanish or Portuguese institutions independently of the geographical setting of the study. The publishing pattern was characterised in terms of authors, journals, and citation statistics. In addition, a thematic characterisation of the research was performed by a manual assignation of several categorical descriptors combined with a blind word count analysis. Iberian researchers produced an annual mean of 278 papers on limnology. Papers were published in journals that had impact factors ranging from 0.1 to 31.4, with a mean of 2.0. Based on citations, the impact of the Iberian limnological research was not due to a few highly cited papers but rather to a wide number of publications; each paper received a mean of 8 citations. The Iberian limnological research involved up to 5460 researchers, with a mean of 4.3 authors per paper. The research largely focused on fluvial systems, with 47 % of total publications (2778) devoted to these ecosystems. There was a dominant focus on local, within-system aspects of study sites and the research was mostly restricted to the Iberian Peninsula; larger spatial scales of analysis (i.e., landscape, regional, or global) tended to be overlooked. Iberian research addressed fundamental (75 %) rather than applied (17 %) or methodological (5 %) questions and was vastly dominated by observational approaches (75 %). Interestingly, Iberian limnological research increased its scientific productivity during the analysed decade at a higher rate than its international counterpart (increase of 119 %). Overall, Iberian research on limnology appeared to be in good health during the analysed decade. Certain areas have been more studied than others, which opens opportunities to develop new research.

Brook Trout Removal as a Conservation Tool to Restore Eagle Lake Rainbow Trout

Nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are abundant in Pine Creek and its main tributary, Bogard Spring Creek, California. These creeks historically provided the most spawning and rearing habitat for endemic Eagle Lake rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss aquilarum. Three-pass electrofishing removal was conducted in 2007–2009 over the entire 2.8-km length of Bogard Spring Creek to determine whether brook trout removal was a feasible restoration tool and to document the life history characteristics of brook trout in a California meadow stream. After the first 2 years of removal, brook trout density and biomass were severely reduced from 15,803 to 1,192 fish/ha and from 277 to 31 kg/ha, respectively. Average removal efficiency was 92–97%, and most of the remaining fish were removed in the third year. The lack of a decrease in age-0 brook trout abundance between 2007 and 2008 after the removal of more than 4,000 adults in 2007 suggests compensatory reproduction of mature fish that survived and higher survival of age-0 fish. However, recruitment was greatly reduced after 2 years of removal and is likely to be even more depressed after the third year of removal assuming that immigration of fish from outside the creek continues to be minimal. Brook trout condition, growth, and fecundity indicated a stunted population at the start of the study, but all three features increased significantly every year, demonstrating compensatory effects. Although highly labor intensive, the use of electrofishing to eradicate brook trout may be feasible in Bogard Spring Creek and similar small streams if removal and monitoring are continued annually and if other control measures (e.g., construction of barriers) are implemented. Our evidence shows that if brook trout control measures continue and if only Eagle Lake rainbow trout are allowed access to the creek, then a self-sustaining population ofEagle Lake rainbow trout can become reestablished

Pèls a la llengua

Si sou calbs i voleu deixar de ser-ho, o si la vostra parella és calba i enyoreu aquells cabells llargs i espessos que lluïa a l'època hippie, esteu de sort. Però aneu alerta, perquè si sou d'aquelles persones que els agrada dir que no té pèls a la llengua, potser ara us en sortiran. O almenys això és el que hom pot pensar després de sentir una de les darreres notícies de ciència de gran ressò mediàtic: s'ha aconseguit que a un ratolí modificat genèticament per no tenir cap pèl li'n creixin. Els artífexs han estat els membres d'un equip de recerca de l'Institut Kennedy Krieger de la Johns Hopkins University, dels EUA, encapçalat per Catherine Thompson. I esclar, molts ja s'imaginen lluint llargues i espesses cabelleres on ara només tenen lluentors [...].