Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Effect of refuge supplement on Audouin's gull chick survival

One of the main threats to Audouin´s gull (Larus audouinii) at Chafarinas Islands is predation on eggs and chicks by the yellow-legged gull (Larus cachinnans). During the 1999 and 2000 breeding seasons we tested the effects of supplementary refuge availability on chick survival. Well before the laying period, nine adjacent enclosures were erected inside Audouin´s gull´s breeding grounds and some of them were supplied with artificial refuges. Our results showed significantly greater chick survival in the enclosures with artificial refuges than in control ones. In 2000, an overall lower breeding success of Audouin´s gull and a dilution of the refuge effect were observed. These results were probably related to food-shortage that year. We suggest that, along with other factors, an increase in refuge availability may significantly enhance Audouin´s gull chick survival.

Nutritional and insulin regulation of fatty acid synthetase and leptin gene expression through ADD1/SREBP1.

The ability to regulate specific genes of energy metabolism in response to fasting and feeding is an important adaptation allowing survival of intermittent food supplies. However, little is known about transcription factors involved in such responses in higher organisms. We show here that gene expression in adipose tissue for adipocyte determination differentiation dependent factor (ADD) 1/sterol regulatory element binding protein (SREBP) 1, a basic-helix-loop-helix protein that has a dual DNA-binding specificity, is reduced dramatically upon fasting and elevated upon refeeding; this parallels closely the regulation of two adipose cell genes that are crucial in energy homeostasis, fatty acid synthetase (FAS) and leptin. This elevation of ADD1/SREBP1, leptin, and FAS that is induced by feeding in vivo is mimicked by exposure of cultured adipocytes to insulin, the classic hormone of the fed state. We also show that the promoters for both leptin and FAS are transactivated by ADD1/SREBP1. A mutation in the basic domain of ADD1/SREBP1 that allows E-box binding but destroys sterol regulatory element-1 binding prevents leptin gene transactivation but has no effect on the increase in FAS promoter function. Molecular dissection of the FAS promoter shows that most if not all of this action of ADD1/SREBP1 is through an E-box motif at -64 to -59, contained with a sequence identified previously as the major insulin response element of this gene. These results indicate that ADD1/SREBP1 is a key transcription factor linking changes in nutritional status and insulin levels to the expression of certain genes that regulate systemic energy metabolism.

Cervical cancer: incidence and survival in migrants within Spain

This study examined the incidence of cervical cancer and survival rates according to migrant experience of women from different regions of Spain to Girona, Catalonia (Spain). DESIGN--Using data from the population based cancer registry of Girona for the period 1980-89, crude and age adjusted incidence rates were calculated for local-born and first generation migrants from other Spanish regions. The age standardised rate ratio (SRR) was calculated and Cox's regression model was used to adjust survival according to migrant status for age and stage at diagnosis. MAIN RESULTS--The incidence of cervical cancer was significantly higher in first generation Spanish migrants compared with locally born women (SRR: 2.02; 95% CI 1.40:2.92). The stage at diagnosis was more advanced among migrants. Survival probability was significantly associated with stage at diagnosis, but age and region of birth were not. CONCLUSIONS--Migrants from the southern Spanish regions show a twofold excess in the incidence of cervical cancer compared with the Girona-born female population. Cases of cervical cancer in migrants are diagnosed at a more advanced stage and as a consequence have a poorer prognosis.

Applications of the bootstrap to survival analysis

En este trabajo se revisan algunas de las aplicaciones clásicas del bootstrap al análisis de la supervivencia. Se consideran en primer lugar el estimador bootstrap de la varianza y el estimador de la mediana corregido para el sesgo del estimador de Kaplan-Meier de la función de supervivencia. A continuación se consideran algunos aspectos mas recientes, tales como métodos para construir bandas de confianza para el estimador de la funcidn de supervivencia y contrastes aproximados para la comparación de funciones de supervivencia. En ambas situaciones el bootstrap resulta de gran utilidad para la aproximación de 10s valores críticos necesarios.

Time-related improvement of survival in resectable gastric cancer: the role of Japanese-style gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy

Background: We investigated the change of prognosis in resected gastric cancer (RGC) patients and the role of radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We retrospectively analyze the outcome of 426 consecutive patients from 1975 to 2002, divided into 2 time-periods (TP) cohort: Before 1990 (TP1, n = 207) and 1990 or after (TP2; n= 219). Partial gastrectomy and D1-lymphadenetomy was predominant in TP1 and total gastrectomy with D2-lymphadenectomy it was in TP2. Adjuvant chemotherapy consisted of mitomycin C (MMC), 10¿20 mg/m2 iv 4 courses or MMC plus Tegafur 500 mg/m2 for 6 months. Results: Positive nodes were similar in TP2/TP1 patients with 56%/59% respectively. Total gastrectomy was done in 56%/45% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Two-drug adjuvant chemotherapy was administered in 65%/18% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Survival at 5 years was 66% for TP2 versus 42%for TP1 patients (p < 0.0001). Survival by stages II, IIIA y IIIB for TP2 versus TP1 patients was 70 vs. 51% (p = 0.0132); 57 vs. 22% (p = 0.0008) y 30 vs. 15% (p = 0.2315) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, stage of disease and period of treatment were independent variables. Conclusion: The global prognosis and that of some stages have improved in recent years with case RGC patients treated with surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.

Mometasone and desloratadine additive effect on eosinophil survival and cytokine secretion from epithelial cells

Although antihistamines and topical corticosteroids are used in combination to treat allergic rhinitis, their additive effect has not been yet demonstrated. The aim was investigate the antiinflammatory additive effect of mometasone and desloratadine on cytokine and sICAM-1 secretion by epithelial cells, and on eosinophil survival stimulated by human epithelial cells secretions from nasal mucosa and polyps. Methods Epithelial cells obtained from nasal mucosa or polyps were stimulated with 10% fetal bovine serum in presence of mometasone (10-11M-10-5M) with/without desloratadine (10-5M). Cytokine and sICAM-1 concentrations in supernatants were measured by ELISA. Peripheral blood eosinophils were incubated during 4 days with epithelial cell secretions with (10-11M-10-5M) and/or desloratadine (10-5M) and survival assessed by Trypan blue. Results are expressed as percentage (mean ± SEM) compared to control. Results Fetal bovine serum stimulated IL-6, IL-8, GM-CSF and sICAM-1 secretion. In mucosa and polyp epithelial cells, mometasone inhibited this induced secretion while desloratadine inhibited IL-6 and IL-8. The combination of 10-5M desloratadine and 10-9M mometasone reduced IL-6 secretion (48 ± 11%, p < 0.05) greater extent than mometasone alone (68 ± 10%) compared to control (100%). Epithelial cell secretions induced eosinophil survival from day 1 to 4, this effect being inhibited by mometasone. At day 4, the combination of mometasone (10-11M) and desloratadine (10-5M) provoked an increased inhibition of eosinophil survival induced by cell secretions (27 ± 5%, p < 0.01) than mometasone (44 ± 7%) or desloratadine (46 ± 7%) alone. Conclusions These results suggest that the combination of desloratadine and mometasone furoate have a greater antinflammatory effect in an in vitro model of eosinophil inflammation than those drugs administered alone.

Enhanced polyhydroxyalkanoates accumulation by Halomonas spp. in artificial biofilms of alginate beads.

Microbial mats are complex but stable, multi-layered and multi-functional biofilms, which are the most frequent bacterial formations in nature. The functional strategies and physiological versatility of the bacterial populations growing in microbial mats allow bacteria to resist changing conditions within their environment. One of these strategies is the accumulation of carbon- and energy-rich polymers that permit the recovery of metabolic activities when favorable conditions are restored. In the present study, we systematically screened microbial mats for bacteria able to accumulate large amounts of the ester carbon polymers polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). Several of these strains were isolated from Ebro Delta microbial mats and their ability to accumulate PHA up to 40-60 % of their dry weight was confirmed. According to two identification approaches (16S rRNA and ropD genes), these strains were identified as Halomonas alkaliphila (MAT-7, -13, -16), H. neptunia (MAT-17), and H. venusta (MAT-28). To determine the mode of growth yielding maximum PHA accumulation, these three different species were cultured in an artificial biofilm in which the cells were immobilized on alginate beads. PHA accumulation by cells that had detached from the biofilm was compared with that of their planktonic counterparts. Experiments in different culture media showed that PHA accumulation, measured as the relative fluorescence intensity after 48 h of incubation at 30 °C, was higher in immobilized than in planktonic cells, with the exception of cells growing in 5 % NaCl, in which PHA accumulation was drastically lower in both. Therefore, for obtaining high PHA concentrations, the use of immobilized cells may be a good alternative to the PHA accumulation by bacteria growing in the classical, planktonic mode. From the ecological point of view, increased PHA accumulation in detached cells from biofilms would be a natural strategy to improve bacterial dispersion capacity and, consequently, to increase survival in stressed environments.

Enhanced polyhydroxyalkanoates accumulation by Halomonas spp. in artificial biofilms of alginate beads.

Microbial mats are complex but stable, multi-layered and multi-functional biofilms, which are the most frequent bacterial formations in nature. The functional strategies and physiological versatility of the bacterial populations growing in microbial mats allow bacteria to resist changing conditions within their environment. One of these strategies is the accumulation of carbon- and energy-rich polymers that permit the recovery of metabolic activities when favorable conditions are restored. In the present study, we systematically screened microbial mats for bacteria able to accumulate large amounts of the ester carbon polymers polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). Several of these strains were isolated from Ebro Delta microbial mats and their ability to accumulate PHA up to 40-60 % of their dry weight was confirmed. According to two identification approaches (16S rRNA and ropD genes), these strains were identified as Halomonas alkaliphila (MAT-7, -13, -16), H. neptunia (MAT-17), and H. venusta (MAT-28). To determine the mode of growth yielding maximum PHA accumulation, these three different species were cultured in an artificial biofilm in which the cells were immobilized on alginate beads. PHA accumulation by cells that had detached from the biofilm was compared with that of their planktonic counterparts. Experiments in different culture media showed that PHA accumulation, measured as the relative fluorescence intensity after 48 h of incubation at 30 °C, was higher in immobilized than in planktonic cells, with the exception of cells growing in 5 % NaCl, in which PHA accumulation was drastically lower in both. Therefore, for obtaining high PHA concentrations, the use of immobilized cells may be a good alternative to the PHA accumulation by bacteria growing in the classical, planktonic mode. From the ecological point of view, increased PHA accumulation in detached cells from biofilms would be a natural strategy to improve bacterial dispersion capacity and, consequently, to increase survival in stressed environments.

TrkB signaling is required for postnatal survival of CNS neurons and protects hippocampal and motor neurons from axotomy-induced cell death

Newborn mice carrying targeted mutations in genes encoding neurotrophins or their signaling Trk receptors display severe neuronal deficits in the peripheral nervous system but not in the CNS. In this study, we show that trkB (¿/¿) mice have a significant increase in apoptotic cell death in different regions of the brain during early postnatal life. The most affected region in the brain is the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, although elevated levels of pyknotic nuclei were also detected in cortical layers II and III and V and VI, the striatum, and the thalamus. Furthermore, axotomized hippocampal and motor neurons of trkB (¿/¿) mice have significantly lower survival rates than those of wild-type littermates. These results suggest that neurotrophin signaling through TrkB receptors plays a role in the survival of CNS neurons during postnatal development. Moreover, they indicate that TrkB receptor signaling protects subpopulations of CNS neurons from injury- and axotomy-induced cell death.

Effect of refuge supplement on Audouin's gull chick survival

One of the main threats to Audouin´s gull (Larus audouinii) at Chafarinas Islands is predation on eggs and chicks by the yellow-legged gull (Larus cachinnans). During the 1999 and 2000 breeding seasons we tested the effects of supplementary refuge availability on chick survival. Well before the laying period, nine adjacent enclosures were erected inside Audouin´s gull´s breeding grounds and some of them were supplied with artificial refuges. Our results showed significantly greater chick survival in the enclosures with artificial refuges than in control ones. In 2000, an overall lower breeding success of Audouin´s gull and a dilution of the refuge effect were observed. These results were probably related to food-shortage that year. We suggest that, along with other factors, an increase in refuge availability may significantly enhance Audouin´s gull chick survival.

Enhanced polyhydroxyalkanoates accumulation by Halomonas spp. in artificial biofilms of alginate beads.

Microbial mats are complex but stable, multi-layered and multi-functional biofilms, which are the most frequent bacterial formations in nature. The functional strategies and physiological versatility of the bacterial populations growing in microbial mats allow bacteria to resist changing conditions within their environment. One of these strategies is the accumulation of carbon- and energy-rich polymers that permit the recovery of metabolic activities when favorable conditions are restored. In the present study, we systematically screened microbial mats for bacteria able to accumulate large amounts of the ester carbon polymers polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). Several of these strains were isolated from Ebro Delta microbial mats and their ability to accumulate PHA up to 40-60 % of their dry weight was confirmed. According to two identification approaches (16S rRNA and ropD genes), these strains were identified as Halomonas alkaliphila (MAT-7, -13, -16), H. neptunia (MAT-17), and H. venusta (MAT-28). To determine the mode of growth yielding maximum PHA accumulation, these three different species were cultured in an artificial biofilm in which the cells were immobilized on alginate beads. PHA accumulation by cells that had detached from the biofilm was compared with that of their planktonic counterparts. Experiments in different culture media showed that PHA accumulation, measured as the relative fluorescence intensity after 48 h of incubation at 30 °C, was higher in immobilized than in planktonic cells, with the exception of cells growing in 5 % NaCl, in which PHA accumulation was drastically lower in both. Therefore, for obtaining high PHA concentrations, the use of immobilized cells may be a good alternative to the PHA accumulation by bacteria growing in the classical, planktonic mode. From the ecological point of view, increased PHA accumulation in detached cells from biofilms would be a natural strategy to improve bacterial dispersion capacity and, consequently, to increase survival in stressed environments.

Characterization of human pancreatic orthotopic tumor xenografts suitable for drug screening

Background Efforts to identify novel therapeutic options for human pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have failed to result in a clear improvement in patient survival to date. Pancreatic cancer requires efficient therapies that must be designed and assayed in preclinical models with improved predictor ability. Among the available preclinical models, the orthotopic approach fits with this expectation, but its use is still occasional. Methods An in vivo platform of 11 orthotopic tumor xenografts has been generated by direct implantation of fresh surgical material. In addition, a frozen tumorgraft bank has been created, ensuring future model recovery and tumor tissue availability. Results Tissue microarray studies allow showing a high degree of original histology preservation and maintenance of protein expression patterns through passages. The models display stable growth kinetics and characteristic metastatic behavior. Moreover, the molecular diversity may facilitate the identification of tumor subtypes and comparison of drug responses that complement or confirm information obtained with other preclinical models. Conclusions This panel represents a useful preclinical tool for testing new agents and treatment protocols and for further exploration of the biological basis of drug responses.

Characterization of human pancreatic orthotopic tumor xenografts suitable for drug screening

Background Efforts to identify novel therapeutic options for human pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have failed to result in a clear improvement in patient survival to date. Pancreatic cancer requires efficient therapies that must be designed and assayed in preclinical models with improved predictor ability. Among the available preclinical models, the orthotopic approach fits with this expectation, but its use is still occasional. Methods An in vivo platform of 11 orthotopic tumor xenografts has been generated by direct implantation of fresh surgical material. In addition, a frozen tumorgraft bank has been created, ensuring future model recovery and tumor tissue availability. Results Tissue microarray studies allow showing a high degree of original histology preservation and maintenance of protein expression patterns through passages. The models display stable growth kinetics and characteristic metastatic behavior. Moreover, the molecular diversity may facilitate the identification of tumor subtypes and comparison of drug responses that complement or confirm information obtained with other preclinical models. Conclusions This panel represents a useful preclinical tool for testing new agents and treatment protocols and for further exploration of the biological basis of drug responses.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.