Strategic mass killings

Since World War II there have been about fifty episodes of large-scale mass killings of civilians and massive forced displacements. They were usually meticulously planned and independent of military goals. We provide a model where conflict onset, conflict intensity and the decision to commit mass killings are all endogenous, with two main goals: (1) to identify the key variables and situations that make mass killings more likely to occur; and (2) to distinguish conditions under which mass killings and military conflict intensity reinforce each other from situations where they are substitute modes of strategic violence. We predict that mass killings are most likely in societies with large natural resources, significant proportionality constraints for rent sharing, low productivity and low state capacity. Further, massacres are more likely in a civil than in an interstate war, as in the latter group sizes matter less for future rents. In non polarized societies there are asymmetric equilibria with only the larger group wanting to engage in massacres. In such settings the smaller group compensates for this by fighting harder in the first place. In this case we can talk of mass killings and fighting efforts to be substitutes. In contrast, in polarized societies either both or none of the groups can be ready to do mass killings in case of victory. Under the "shadow of mass killings" groups fight harder. Hence, in this case massacres and fighting are complements. We also present novel empirical results on the role of natural resources in mass killings and on what kinds of ethnic groups are most likely to be victimized in massacres and forced resettlements, using group level panel data.

Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

Repeated Agenda Setting and the Unanimous Approval of Bad Policies

This paper addresses the puzzle of why legislation, even highly inefficient legislation, may pass with overwhelming majorities. We model a egislature in which the same agenda setter serves for two periods, showing how he can exploit a legislature (completely) in the first period by romising future benefits to legislators who support him. In equilibrium, large majority of legislators vote for the first-period proposal because a ote in favor maintains the chance for membership in the minimum winning coalition in the future. The model thus generates situations in which egislators approve policies by large majorities, or even unanimously, that enefit few, or even none, of them. The results are robust: some institutional arrangements, such as super-majority rules or sequential voting, imit but do not eliminate the agenda setter's power to exploit the legislature, and other institutions such as secret voting do not limit his power.

Economic growth and inequality: the role of fiscal policies

This paper analyses the impact of different instruments of fiscal policy on economic growth as well as on income inequality, using an unbalanced panel of 43 upper-middle and high income countries for the period 1972-2006. We consider and estimate two individual equations explaining growth and inequality in order to assess the incidence of different fiscal policies. Firstly, our approach considers imposing orthogonal assumptions between growth and inequality in both equations, and secondly, it allows growth to be included in the inequality equation, and inequality to be included in the growth equation. The empirical results suggest that an increase in the size of government measured through current expenditures and direct taxes diminishes economic growth while reducing inequality, being public investment the only fiscal policy that may break this trade-off between efficiency and equity, since increases in this item reduces inequality without harming output. Therefore, the results reflect that the trade-off between efficiency and equity that governments often confront when designing their fiscal policies may be avoided.

A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia

Water scarcity is a long-standing problem in Catalonia, as there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of water through the territory. There has consequently been a debate for many years about whether the solution to water scarcity must be considered in terms of efficiency or equity, the role that the public sector must play and the role that market-based instruments should play in water management. The aim of this paper is to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with different policy instruments, from both a supply and a demand viewpoint, which can be applied to water management in Catalonia. We also introduce an ecological sector in our CGE model, allowing us to analyze the environmental impact of the alternative policies simulated. The calibration of the exogenous variables of the CGE model is performed by using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. The results suggest that taking into account the principle of sustainability of the resource, the policy debate between supply and demand in water policies is obsolete, and a new combination of policies is required to respect the different values associated with water. Keywords: Water Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Economic Effects; Environmental Effects.

Price policies and Price dispersion in the private healthcare insurance industry: The Catalan case

We present an overlapping generations model that explains price dispersion among Catalonian healthcare insurance firms. The model shows that firms with different premium policies can coexist. Furthermore, if interest rates are low, firms that apply equal premium to all insureds can charge higher average prices than insurers that set premiums according to the risk of insured. Economic theory, health insurance, health economics.

Quantitative analysis of image factors in a cultural heritage tourist destination

The tourism consumer’s purchase decision process is, to a great extent, conditioned by the image the tourist has of the different destinations that make up his or her choice set. In a highly competitive international tourist market, those responsible for destinations’ promotion and development policies seek differentiation strategies so that they may position the destinations in the most suitable market segments for their product in order to improve their attractiveness to visitors and increase or consolidate the economic benefits that tourism activity generates in their territory. To this end, the main objective we set ourselves in this paper is the empirical analysis of the factors that determine the image formation of Tarragona city as a cultural heritage destination. Without a doubt, UNESCO’s declaration of Tarragona’s artistic and monumental legacies as World Heritage site in the year 2000 meant important international recognition of the quality of the cultural and patrimonial elements offered by the city to the visitors who choose it as a tourist destination. It also represents a strategic opportunity to boost the city’s promotion of tourism and its consolidation as a unique destination given its cultural and patrimonial characteristics. Our work is based on the use of structured and unstructured techniques to identify the factors that determine Tarragona’s tourist destination image and that have a decisive influence on visitors’ process of choice of destination. In addition to being able to ascertain Tarragona’s global tourist image, we consider that the heterogeneity of its visitors requires a more detailed study that enables us to segment visitor typology. We consider that the information provided by these results may prove of great interest to those responsible for local tourism policy, both when designing products and when promoting the destination.

Integration in strategic alliances : a conceptual framework of IT use in marketing as NPD key factor

En una economia basada en el coneixement, la innovació del producte es considera un factor clau a l'hora de determinar la competitivitat, la productivitat i el creixement d'una companyia. No obstant això, l'experiència de les companyies demostra la necessitat d'un nou model de gestió de la innovació del producte: una gestió basada en el màrqueting, en què la cooperació i l'ús intensiu de les tecnologies de la informació i de la comunicació (TIC) són especialment importants. En els darrers anys, la bibliografia sobre màrqueting ha analitzat el paper de la cooperació en l'èxit del procés d'innovació. No obstant això, fins ara pocs treballs han estudiat el paper que té l'ús de les TIC en el màrqueting en l'èxit del desenvolupament de nous productes (NPD, New Product Development en anglès). És una omissió curiosa, tenint en compte que el nou entorn competitiu és definit per una economia i una societat basades principalment en l'ús intensiu de les TIC i del coneixement. L'objectiu d'aquest treball és investigar el paper que l'ús de les TIC en el màrqueting té en el procés de desenvolupament de nous productes, com a element que reforça la integració d'agents al projecte, afavorint l'establiment de relacions dirigides a la cooperació i l'adquisició d'intel·ligència de mercat útil en el procés de desenvolupament de nous productes. L'estudi d'una mostra de 2.038 companyies de tots els sectors de l'activitat econòmica a Catalunya ens permet contrastar hipòtesis inicials i establir un perfil de companyia innovadora basat en les importants relacions que hi ha entre la innovació, l'ús de TIC en el màrqueting i la integració. Sobresurten dues idees en la nostra anàlisi. En primer lloc, l'ús intensiu de les TIC en el màrqueting fa que la companyia sigui més innovadora, ja que percep que el seu ús ajuda a superar barreres a la innovació i accelera els processos, que es tornen més eficients. En segon lloc, incrementant l'ús de les TIC en el màrqueting es fa augmentar la predisposició de la companyia a integrar agents particulars en l'entorn de negoci en el desenvolupament del procés d'innovació i a col·laborar-hi, de manera que es millora el grau d'adaptació del nou producte a les demandes del mercat.

El paper del capital social en l'organització d'esdeveniments

La intenció d'aquest article és detallar l'abast del capital social als esdeveniments culturals celebrats a Catalunya i analitzar la influència sobre l'atracció turística dels mateixos. Es pretén determinar també quin és l'impacte que tres elements de capital social que intervenen en l'organització d'esdeveniments (elements de motivació, creació de xarxes internes i lideratge) tenen sobre el sector turístic local. L'estudi parteix d'una mostra de 263 esdeveniments als quals s'ha adreçat una enquesta per determinar la presència i pes dels factors de capital social. Aquesta informació s'ha creuat amb dades sobre impactes i atracció turística obtingudes també a partir de la mateixa enquesta i, a partir de l'aplicació del test del chi quadrat, s'ha contrastat si les diferències existents entre els diferents factors del capital social són estadísticament significatives. Les conclusions principals obtingudes indiquen que els esdeveniments que tenen elements de capital social que els reforça la seva cohesió social entenen i justifiquen la celebració com a fet socialitzador, independentment del seu abast turístic. A més es detecta que la creació de xarxes de relació enforteix la cohesió interna, la representativitat i el sentit d'identitat de la comunitat. Finalment es constata que la presència d'elements de lideratge que donen visibilitat i vinculen l'esdeveniment amb xarxes externes explica la diferència existent en la capacitat d'atracció i impactes turístics dels esdeveniments. La principal aportació del treball és posar de manifest el paper del capital social com a factor que incideix en la repercussió social i turística dels esdeveniments catalans. La diagnosi efectuada permet recomanar la incorporació del capital social com un actiu estratègic per a la gestió i per a la creació de nous productes i polítiques turístiques centrades en els esdeveniments culturals.

Examining the sustainability issues in UKOER projects : Developing a sustainable OER ecosystem in HE

The development of open educational resources (OERs) is becoming a strategic priority for governments and education institutions around the world, in response to funding cuts and rising costs in educational provision. In the United Kingdom, a government-sponsored Pilot Programme on Open Educational Recourses (JISC/HEA, 2009) was launched in 2009 with an initial budget of £5.7m. This paper reviews the key sustainability issues identified by the projects including the different approaches and models that have been adopted in order to sustain the continuing development and release of OER once funding has ended. The analysis also considers the challenges relating to the development and implementation of policies and processes for sustainable OER practice within institutions and among academics. The paper concludes by drawing on the experiences from the wider United Kingdom and international OER communities to develop a sustainable OER ecosystem model that can facilitate discussions on future development of OER initiatives.

The Strategic Adaptation of Party Organizations to New Information and Communication Technologies : A Study of Catalan and Spanish Parties

Aquest document se centra en els casos dels dos principals partits espanyols (PP i PSOE) i catalans (PSC i CDC) en el període immediatament després de les eleccions generals espanyoles de maig de 2008, quan aquests celebraren els seus congressos. En general, es poden distingir tres tipus d'actors: en primer lloc, els ciberactivistes que tracten d'obtenir el reconeixement formal de la seva activitat en els seus partits. Així com, els líders del partit que poden intentar promoure la presència del partit en el ciberespai, però que també poden romandre indecisos perquè no és clar l'impacte electoral a la xarxa del ciberactivisme. Finalment, alguns militants tradicionals (off-line) solen ser reticents al reconeixement del ciberactivisme perquè amenaça les recompenses previstes dins del partit. Aquest article mostra com els nostres partits varen respondre al desafiament del ciberactivisme i arriba a la conclusió que la seva situació electoral, mediada per la seva ideologia, estructura organitzativa i el tipus de militància, poden ajudar-nos a comprendre el grau diferent d'institucionalització en l'organització del partit.

The effectiveness of market intervention policies to improve diet quality and to reduce the prevalence of obesity in Spain

Our project aims at analyzing the relevance of economic factors (mainly income and other socioeconomic characteristics of Spanish households and market prices) on the prevalence of obesity in Spain and to what extent market intervention prices are effective to reduce obesity and improve the quality of the diet, and under what circumstances. In relation to the existing literature worldwide, this project is the first attempt in Spain trying to get an overall picture on the effectiveness of public policies on both food consumption and the quality of diet, on one hand, and on the prevalence of obesity on the other. The project consists of four main parts. The first part represents a critical review of the literature on the economic approach of dealing with the obesity prevalence problems, diet quality and public intervention policies. Although another important body of obesity literature is dealing with physical exercise but in this paper we will limit our attention to those studies related to food consumption respecting the scope of our study and as there are many published literature review dealing with the literature related to the physical exercise and its effect on obesity prevalence. The second part consists of a Parametric and Non-Parametric Analysis of the Role of Economic Factors on Obesity Prevalence in Spain. The third part is trying to overcome the shortcomings of many diet quality indices that have been developed during last decades, such as the Healthy Eating Index, the Diet Quality Index, the Healthy Diet Indicator, and the Mediterranean Diet Score, through the development of a new obesity specific diet quality index. While the last part of our project concentrates on the assessment of the effectiveness of market intervention policies to improve the healthiness of the Spanish Diet Using the new Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) Demand System.

The Strategic value of European renewable energy promotion policy

Encara falta per fer possible una transformació estratègica d'Europa del sistema d'energia, però el que és de la mateixa importància com a objectius a llarg termini de la FER i Reduccions de GEH són vinculants i forts objectius d'eficiència energètica, no només per 2020, però també per al 2030, 2040 i 2050, com aquesta força ajudaria a fixar l'augment de les energies renovables en el total d'energia consum i per reduir el total Emissions de GEH d'Europa en general, i les del sector de l'energia en particular, encara sent un dels majors emissors de gasos d'efecte hivernacle de tots els sectors. La refosa Directiva, prevista per 2011/12 ha de ser un bones finestres d'oportunitat per finalment establir objectius vinculants d'eficiència energètica, l'únic pilar que encara falta en la força energia interdependents i estratègia sobre el clima de la UE, basat en la reducció de gasos d'efecte hivernacle i i l'eficiència energètica.

Technological convergence: a strategic perspective

The information and communication technologies (ICT) sectors are in a process of technological convergence. Determinant factors in this process are the liberalisation of the telecommunications markets and technological change. Many firms are engaged in a process of mergers and alliances to position themselves in this new framework. Technological and demand uncertainties are very important. Our objective in this paper is to study the economic determinants of the strategies of the firms. With this aim, we review some key technological and demand aspects. We shed some light on the strategic motivations of the firms by establishing a parallel with the evolution of the retailing sector

How effective are policies to reduce gasoline consumption? evaluating a quasi-natural experiment in Spain

Using a panel of 48 provinces for four years we empirically analyze a series of temporary policies aimed at curbing fuel consumption implemented in Spain between March and June 2011. The first policy was a reduction in the speed limit in highways. The second policy was an increase in the biofuel content of fuels used in the transport sector. The third measure was a reduction of 5% in commuting and regional train fares that resulted in two major metropolitan areas reducing their overall fare for public transit. The results indicate that the speed limit reduction in highways reduced gasoline consumption by between 2% and 3%, while an increase in the biofuel content of gasoline increased this consumption. This last result is consistent with experimental evidence that indicates that mileage per liter falls with an increase in the biofuel content in gasolines. As for the reduction in transit fares, we do not find a significant effect for this policy. However, in specifications including the urban transit fare for the major cities in each province the estimated cross-price elasticity of the demand for gasoline -used as a proxy for car use- with respect to the price of transit is within the range reported in the literature. This is important since one of the main eficiency justification for subsidizing public transit rests on the positive value of this parameter and most of the estimates reported in the literature are quite dated.