Analyzing the effects of transient faults into applications

As computer chips implementation technologies evolve to obtain more performance, those computer chips are using smaller components, with bigger density of transistors and working with lower power voltages. All these factors turn the computer chips less robust and increase the probability of a transient fault. Transient faults may occur once and never more happen the same way in a computer system lifetime. There are distinct consequences when a transient fault occurs: the operating system might abort the execution if the change produced by the fault is detected by bad behavior of the application, but the biggest risk is that the fault produces an undetected data corruption that modifies the application final result without warnings (for example a bit flip in some crucial data). With the objective of researching transient faults in computer system’s processor registers and memory we have developed an extension of HP’s and AMD joint full system simulation environment, named COTSon. This extension allows the injection of faults that change a single bit in processor registers and memory of the simulated computer. The developed fault injection system makes it possible to: evaluate the effects of single bit flip transient faults in an application, analyze an application robustness against single bit flip transient faults and validate fault detection mechanism and strategies.

Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

Stochastic optimal bid to electricity markets with environmental risk constraints

There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) in the current energy market framework. Environmental policy issues have become more and more important for fossil-fuelled power plants and they have to be considered in their management, giving rise to emission limitations. This work allows to investigate the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan, and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans are the framework to deal with the environmental issues in the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), have been extended. This study offers to electricity generation utilities a mathematical model to determinate the individual optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market, for each one of their generation units that maximizes the long-run profits of the utility abiding by the Iberian Electricity Market rules, the environmental restrictions set by the EU Emission Trading Scheme, as well as the restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed and the most remarkable results will be presented.

CAC controlled services sharing a link with connectionless data services in an ATM network: a performance evaluation study

In the B-ISDN there is a provision for four classes of services, all of them supported by a single transport network (the ATM network). Three of these services, the connected oriented (CO) ones, permit connection access control (CAC) but the fourth, the connectionless oriented (CLO) one, does not. Therefore, when CLO service and CO services have to share the same ATM link, a conflict may arise. This is because a bandwidth allocation to obtain maximum statistical gain can damage the contracted ATM quality of service (QOS); and vice versa, in order to guarantee the contracted QOS, the statistical gain have to be sacrificed. The paper presents a performance evaluation study of the influence of the CLO service on a CO service (a circuit emulation service or a variable bit-rate service) when sharing the same link

Tres notes sobre l’Ars predicandi populo de Francesc Eiximenis (autoria, datació i contingut) = Three notes on the Ars Predicandi populo of Francesc Eiximenis (authorship, date and content)

In spite of the fact that the Ars predicandi populo is attributed to Eiximenis in only one of the three extant manuscripts, there is no doubt that it is one of his works.First of all, the internal references to this treatise in the pages of Terç and Dotzè del Crestià are an irrefutable testimony and, secondly, the presence of an autographvolume of sermons which begins with the Ars in the inventory of the Eiximenis library made shortly after his death. The writing of the Ars and the collection of sermons which introduces it must be dated prior to the beginning of the Crestià encyclopedia (1379) because of the complexity that entailed the writing of a collection of three perhaps four volumes of sermons. Due to a series of formal and codicological reasons it must be concluded that the chapter entitled De consiliis circa predicacionem cannot be attributed to Eiximenis and thus be excluded from the Ars

Association of NTRK3 and its interaction with NGF suggest an altered cross-regulation of the neurotrophin signaling pathway in eating disorders

Eating disorders (EDs) are complex psychiatric diseases that include anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa, and have higher than 50% heritability. Previous studies have found association of BDNF and NTRK2 to ED, while animal models suggest that other neurotrophin genes might also be involved in eating behavior. We have performed a family-based association study with 151 TagSNPs covering 10 neurotrophin signaling genes: NGFB, BDNF, NTRK1, NGFR/p75, NTF4/5, NTRK2, NTF3, NTRK3, CNTF and CNTFR in 371 ED trios of Spanish, French and German origin. Besides several nominal associations, we found a strong significant association after correcting for multiple testing (P = 1.04 × 10−4) between ED and rs7180942, located in the NTRK3 gene, which followed an overdominant model of inheritance. Interestingly, HapMap unrelated individuals carrying the rs7180942 risk genotypes for ED showed higher levels of expression of NTRK3 in lymphoblastoid cell lines. Furthermore, higher expression of the orthologous murine Ntrk3 gene was also detected in the hypothalamus of the anx/anx mouse model of anorexia. Finally, variants in NGFB gene appear to modify the risk conferred by the NTRK3 rs7180942 risk genotypes (P = 4.0 × 10−5) showing a synergistic epistatic interaction. The reported data, in addition to the previous reported findings for BDNF and NTRK2, point neurotrophin signaling genes as key regulators of eating behavior and their altered cross-regulation as susceptibility factors for EDs.

The credit ratings game

The spectacular failure of top-rated structured finance products has broughtrenewed attention to the conflicts of interest of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs). We modelboth the CRA conflict of understating credit risk to attract more business, and the issuerconflict of purchasing only the most favorable ratings (issuer shopping), and examine theeffectiveness of a number of proposed regulatory solutions of CRAs. We find that CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings when there is a larger fraction of naive investors in the marketwho take ratings at face value, or when CRA expected reputation costs are lower. To theextent that in booms the fraction of naive investors is higher, and the reputation risk forCRAs of getting caught understating credit risk is lower, our model predicts that CRAs aremore likely to understate credit risk in booms than in recessions. We also show that, due toissuer shopping, competition among CRAs in a duopoly is less efficient (conditional on thesame equilibrium CRA rating policy) than having a monopoly CRA, in terms of both totalex-ante surplus and investor surplus. Allowing tranching decreases total surplus further.We argue that regulatory intervention requiring upfront payments for rating services (beforeCRAs propose a rating to the issuer) combined with mandatory disclosure of any ratingproduced by CRAs can substantially mitigate the con.icts of interest of both CRAs andissuers.

Multi-period vendor managed inventory systems

In this paper we develop two models for an inventory system in which the distributormanages the inventory at the retailers location. These type of systems correspondto the Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) systems described ib the literature. Thesesystems are very common in many different types of industries, such as retailingand manufacturing, although assuming different characteristics.The objective of our model is to minimize total inventory cost for the distributorin a multi-period multi-retailer setting. The inventory system includes holdingand stock-out costs and we study the case whre an additional fixed setup cost ischarged per delivery.We construct a numerical experiment to analyze the model bahavior and observe theimpact of the characteristics of the model on the solutions.

Killing by lung cancer or by diabetes? The trade-off between smoking and obesity

As the prevalence of smoking has decreased to below 20%, health practitioners interest has shifted towards theprevalence of obesity, and reducing it is one of the major health challenges in decades to come. In this paper westudy the impact that the final product of the anti-smoking campaign, that is, smokers quitting the habit, had onaverage weight in the population. To these ends, we use data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System,a large series of independent representative cross-sectional surveys. We construct a synthetic panel that allows us tocontrol for unobserved heterogeneity and we exploit the exogenous changes in taxes and regulations to instrumentthe endogenous decision to give up the habit of smoking. Our estimates, are very close to estimates issued in the 90sby the US Department of Health, and indicate that a 10% decrease in the incidence of smoking leads to an averageweight increase of 2.2 to 3 pounds, depending on choice of specification. In addition, we find evidence that the effectovershoots in the short run, although a significant part remains even after two years. However, when we split thesample between men and women, we only find a significant effect for men. Finally, the implicit elasticity of quittingsmoking to the probability of becoming obese is calculated at 0.58. This implies that the net benefit from reducingthe incidence of smoking by 1% is positive even though the cost to society is $0.6 billions.

A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain

The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain) and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982¿2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982¿2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.

The Impact of Monetary Union on EU-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads

With European Monetary Union (EMU), there was an increase in the adjusted spreads (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) of euro participating countries' sovereign securities over Germany and a decrease in those of non-euro countries. The objective of this paper is to study the reasons for this result, and in particular, whether the change in the price assigned by markets was due to domestic factors such as credit risk and/or market liquidity, or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence suggests that market size scale economies have increased since EMU for all European markets, so the effect of the various risk factors, even though it differs between euro and non-euro countries, is always dependent on the size of the market.

Time of ruin in a risk model with generalized Erlang (n) interclaim times and a constant dividend barrier

In this paper we analyze the time of ruin in a risk process with the interclaim times being Erlang(n) distributed and a constant dividend barrier. We obtain an integro-differential equation for the Laplace Transform of the time of ruin. Explicit solutions for the moments of the time of ruin are presented when the individual claim amounts have a distribution with rational Laplace transform. Finally, some numerical results and a compare son with the classical risk model, with interclaim times following an exponential distribution, are given.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Cotton manufacturers as bankers: the textile trade and credit in spain, 1840-1913

[cat] La historiografia ha assenyalat que en el segle XIX el crèdit que els fabricants cotoners catalans oferien als seus clients era de caràcter informal i, per tant, impossible de ser transferit al sistema bancari. Això hauria tingut un efecte negatiu en la rendibilitat de les empreses cotoneres. A partir de l’anàlisi de diversos arxius empresarials, així com de fonts judicials i notarials, aquest treball confirma aquesta descripció dels fets però proposa una interpretació més optimista. Els fabricants feien de banquers dels seus clients perquè eren els millor situats per a exercir aquesta funció. Havien construït una bona estructura d’informació, gestionaven eficientment el risc creditici i obtenien beneficis d’aquesta activitat.

Cotton manufacturers as bankers: the textile trade and credit in spain, 1840-1913

[cat] La historiografia ha assenyalat que en el segle XIX el crèdit que els fabricants cotoners catalans oferien als seus clients era de caràcter informal i, per tant, impossible de ser transferit al sistema bancari. Això hauria tingut un efecte negatiu en la rendibilitat de les empreses cotoneres. A partir de l’anàlisi de diversos arxius empresarials, així com de fonts judicials i notarials, aquest treball confirma aquesta descripció dels fets però proposa una interpretació més optimista. Els fabricants feien de banquers dels seus clients perquè eren els millor situats per a exercir aquesta funció. Havien construït una bona estructura d’informació, gestionaven eficientment el risc creditici i obtenien beneficis d’aquesta activitat.