Crecimiento, instituciones e hidrocarburos : el proyecto petrolero mexicano en perspectiva histórica comparada (1938-2000)

En este trabajo se analiza la política petrolera mexicana durante el período 1938-2000 y su aportación al crecimiento económico mexicano. La orientación de la producción petrolera permite distinguir dos modelos de gestión de la industria petrolera. El primero de ellos; entre 1938-1976 tuvo por finalidad el aprovisionamiento energético del mercado interior a bajos precios. El segundo a partir de 1976 orientado hacia la exportación y la captura de la renta petrolera internacional. Esta ruptura en la política petrolera asociada constituye un caso interesante en sí mismo porque permite comparar los efectos de dos políticas totalmente opuestas sobre el crecimiento económico y sobre el desempeño de la propia industria petrolera en un país donde el Estado tiene derechos de propiedad exclusivos sobre el sector petrolero. Por ello, se aborda el tema como una problemática institucional que toma en cuenta tanto las características internas de México como la dinámica del mercado petrolero internacional. Se incide en el hecho de que el Estado mexicano ha utilizado a la industria petrolera y; concretamente los recursos que ésta genera no sólo como un instrumento para favorecer el crecimiento económico del país sino también para mantener el control del poder político frente a la élite económica. Así el inmovilismo institucional; la falta de ingresos e inversiones propias y el comportamiento rentista del Estado parecen haber condenado al sector petrolero mexicano al atraso y la ineficiencia. De este modo; se focaliza en las interrelaciones entre las instituciones económicas y políticas como elemento explicativo del por qué la industria petrolera no ha logrado convertirse en un elemento dinamizador del crecimiento económico mexicano en el largo plazo.

The problem of the competitiveness of nuclear energy: a biophysical explanation

In this study I try to explain the systemic problem of the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy for the production of electricity by carrying out a biophysical analysis of its production process. Given the fact that neither econometric approaches nor onedimensional methods of energy analyses are effective, I introduce the concept of biophysical explanation as a quantitative analysis capable of handling the inherent ambiguity associated with the concept of energy. In particular, the quantities of energy, considered as relevant for the assessment, can only be measured and aggregated after having agreed on a pre-analytical definition of a grammar characterizing a given set of finite transformations. Using this grammar it becomes possible to provide a biophysical explanation for the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy in the production of electricity. When comparing the various unit operations of the process of production of electricity with nuclear energy to the analogous unit operations of the process of production of fossil energy, we see that the various phases of the process are the same. The only difference is related to characteristics of the process associated with the generation of heat which are completely different in the two systems. Since the cost of production of fossil energy provides the base line of economic competitiveness of electricity, the (lack of) economic competitiveness of the production of electricity from nuclear energy can be studied, by comparing the biophysical costs associated with the different unit operations taking place in nuclear and fossil power plants when generating process heat or net electricity. In particular, the analysis focuses on fossil-fuel requirements and labor requirements for those phases that both nuclear plants and fossil energy plants have in common: (i) mining; (ii) refining/enriching; (iii) generating heat/electricity; (iv) handling the pollution/radioactive wastes. By adopting this approach, it becomes possible to explain the systemic low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy in the production of electricity, because of: (i) its dependence on oil, limiting its possible role as a carbon-free alternative; (ii) the choices made in relation to its fuel cycle, especially whether it includes reprocessing operations or not; (iii) the unavoidable uncertainty in the definition of the characteristics of its process; (iv) its large inertia (lack of flexibility) due to issues of time scale; and (v) its low power level.

A unified approach for representing rows and columns in contingency tables

By using suitable parameters, we present a uni¯ed aproach for describing four methods for representing categorical data in a contingency table. These methods include:correspondence analysis (CA), the alternative approach using Hellinger distance (HD),the log-ratio (LR) alternative, which is appropriate for compositional data, and theso-called non-symmetrical correspondence analysis (NSCA). We then make an appropriate comparison among these four methods and some illustrative examples are given.Some approaches based on cumulative frequencies are also linked and studied usingmatrices.Key words: Correspondence analysis, Hellinger distance, Non-symmetrical correspondence analysis, log-ratio analysis, Taguchi inertia

Holografia de microones en banda X

Aquest projecte es basa, en el disseny i construcció d’una aplicació directa de l’holografia de microones. Està compost per el disseny d’un sistema el qual és capaç de mesurar la potència que arriba a un sistema d’antenes receptores al travessar un obstacle i posteriorment, mitjançant una sèrie de passos que caracteritzen l’holografia, el que permet és, recuperar una imatge virtual de l’obstacle en qüestió el qual s’ha volgut holografiar. Aquest sistema s’ha elaborat mitjançant un motor rotatori i posteriorment lineal per fer l’escaneig de potència. Primerament el que s’ha dut a terme és una simulació de com el sistema es comportaria en un entorn ideal i posteriorment, s’ha dut a la realitat amb un sistema el qual ens ha permès fer una comparació amb els resultats obtinguts en la simulació. Finalment es mostren els resultats sobre la seva viabilitat.

Mophological analysis of the human vasculature from medical imaging. Application to cerebral and coranary arteries

In this project, we have investigated new ways of modelling and analysis of human vasculature from Medical images. The research was divided in two main areas: cerebral vasculature analysis and coronary arteries modeling. Regarding cerebral vasculature analysis, we have studed cerebral aneurysms, internal carotid and the Circle of Willis (CoW). Aneurysms are abnormal vessel enlargements that can rupture causing important cerebral damages or death. The understanding of this pathology, together with its virtual treatment, and image diagnosis and prognosis, includes identification and detailed measurement of the aneurysms. In this context, we have proposed two automatic aneurysm isolation method, to separate the abnormal part of the vessel from the healthy part, to homogenize and speed-up the processing pipeline usually employed to study this pathology, [Cardenes2011TMI, arrabide2011MedPhys]. The results obtained from both methods have been also compared and validatied in [Cardenes2012MBEC]. A second important task here the analysis of the internal carotid [Bogunovic2011Media] and the automatic labelling of the CoW, Bogunovic2011MICCAI, Bogunovic2012TMI]. The second area of research covers the study of coronary arteries, specially coronary bifurcations because there is where the formation of atherosclerotic plaque is more common, and where the intervention is more challenging. Therefore, we proposed a novel modelling method from Computed Tomography Angiography (CTA) images, combined with Conventional Coronary Angiography (CCA), to obtain realistic vascular models of coronary bifurcations, presented in [Cardenes2011MICCAI], and fully validated including phantom experiments in [Cardene2013MedPhys]. The realistic models obtained from this method are being used to simulate stenting procedures, and to investigate the hemodynamic variables in coronary bifurcations in the works submitted in [Morlachi2012, Chiastra2012]. Additionally, another preliminary work has been done to reconstruct the coronary tree from rotational angiography, and published in [Cardenes2012ISBI].

The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Real wage rigidities and the new Keynesian model

Most central banks perceive a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output. However, the standard new Keynesian framework implies no such trade-off. In that framework, stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. In this paper, we argue that this property of the new Keynesian framework, which we call the divine coincidence, is due to a special feature of the model: the absence of non trivial real imperfections.We focus on one such real imperfection, namely, real wage rigidities. When the baseline new Keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities, the divine coincidence disappears, and central banks indeed face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. We show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications, but it also has appealing positive properties. In particular, it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation-unemployment relation found in the data.

A dynamic choice model of hybrid behavior in the attribute-space

This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attributespace considering rational consumers that discount the future. In lightof the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model isfurther extended by considering a utility function that allows for thedifferent types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia,pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationaryconsumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buysone product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer buys severalproducts simultane-ously. Under the inverted-U marginal utilityassumption, the consumer behaves inertial among the existing brands forseveral periods, and eventually, once the stationary levels areapproached, the consumer turns to a variety-seeking behavior. An empiricalanalysis is run using a scanner database for fabric softener andsignificant evidence of hybrid behavior for most attributes is found,which supports the functional form considered in the theory.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

Computation of multiple correspondence analysis, with code in R

The generalization of simple correspondence analysis, for two categorical variables, to multiple correspondence analysis where they may be three or more variables, is not straighforward, both from a mathematical and computational point of view. In this paper we detail the exact computational steps involved in performing a multiple correspondence analysis, including the special aspects of adjusting the principal inertias to correct the percentages of inertia, supplementary points and subset analysis. Furthermore, we give the algorithm for joint correspondence analysis where the cross-tabulations of all unique pairs of variables are analysed jointly. The code in the R language for every step of the computations is given, as well as the results of each computation.

Congruences between modular forms and lowering the level mod l^n

In this article we study the behavior of inertia groups for modularGalois mod l^n representations and in some cases we give a generalizationof Ribet s lowering the level result (cf. [Rib90]).

Tying up the loose ends in simple correspondence analysis

Although correspondence analysis is now widely available in statistical software packages and applied in a variety of contexts, notably the social and environmental sciences, there are still some misconceptions about this method as well as unresolved issues which remain controversial to this day. In this paper we hope to settle these matters, namely (i) the way CA measures variance in a two-way table and how to compare variances between tables of different sizes, (ii) the influence, or rather lack of influence, of outliers in the usual CA maps, (iii) the scaling issue and the biplot interpretation of maps,(iv) whether or not to rotate a solution, and (v) statistical significance of results.

Aproximació al moviment "open access"

[eng] The article describes the background and current state of the open access (OA) movement. Its objectives --with roots in scientists' traditional desire to disseminate their works, in librarians' concerns about the serials crisis, and in technological advances-- were formally articulated in the Budapest Open Access Initiative (BOAI) declaration of 2002. This statement established two strategies for providing access to scientific information without any economic, technical, or legal obstacles: 1) publication of articles in OA journals or 2) deposit by authors of their works in stable institutional or subject-based repositories. The article suggests that this second "route" appears to offer greater possibilities of attaining open access in the short term. However, there still is a lot of work to be done in disseminating the concepts of OA and in training authors regarding procedures for depositing their works: in other words what is needed is a series of promotional activities for overcoming one of today's greatest challenges: author inertia.

Mechanical properties of cultured human airway smooth muscle cells from 0.05 to 0.4 Hz.

We investigated the rheological properties of living human airway smooth muscle cells in culture and monitored the changes in rheological properties induced by exogenous stimuli. We oscillated small magnetic microbeads bound specifically to integrin receptors and computed the storage modulus (G') and loss modulus (G") from the applied torque and the resulting rotational motion of the beads as determined from their remanent magnetic field. Under baseline conditions, G' increased weakly with frequency, whereas G" was independent of the frequency. The cell was predominantly elastic, with the ratio of G" to G' (defined as eta) being ~0.35 at all frequencies. G' and G" increased together after contractile activation and decreased together after deactivation, whereas eta remained unaltered in each case. Thus elastic and dissipative stresses were coupled during changes in contractile activation. G' and G" decreased with disruption of the actin fibers by cytochalasin D, but eta increased. These results imply that the mechanisms for frictional energy loss and elastic energy storage in the living cell are coupled and reside within the cytoskeleton.