31 resultados para Risk Analysis, Security Models, Counter Measures, Threat Networks
Resumo:
In most geochemical analyses log-ratio techniques are required to analyse compositional data sets. When a chemical element is present at a low concentration in is usally identified as a value below the detection límit and added to the data set either as zero or simply by attaching a less-than label. In any case, the occirrence of such concentration prevents us from applying the log-ratio approach. We review here the tehoretical bases of the most recent proposals for dealing with these types of observation, give some advice on their practical application and illustrate their performance throgh some examples using geochemical data
Resumo:
Comentaris referits a l'article següent: K. J. Vinoy, J. K. Abraham, and V. K. Varadan, “On the relationshipbetween fractal dimension and the performance of multi-resonant dipoleantennas using Koch curves,” IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagation, 2003, vol. 51, p. 2296–2303.
Resumo:
There is currently a considerable diversity of quantitative measures available for summarizing the results in single-case studies. Given that the interpretation of some of them is difficult due to the lack of established benchmarks, the current paper proposes an approach for obtaining further numerical evidence on the importance of the results, complementing the substantive criteria, visual analysis, and primary summary measures. This additional evidence consists of obtaining the statistical significance of the outcome when referred to the corresponding sampling distribution. This sampling distribution is formed by the values of the outcomes (expressed as data nonoverlap, R-squared, etc.) in case the intervention is ineffective. The approach proposed here is intended to offer the outcome"s probability of being as extreme when there is no treatment effect without the need for some assumptions that cannot be checked with guarantees. Following this approach, researchers would compare their outcomes to reference values rather than constructing the sampling distributions themselves. The integration of single-case studies is problematic, when different metrics are used across primary studies and not all raw data are available. Via the approach for assigning p values it is possible to combine the results of similar studies regardless of the primary effect size indicator. The alternatives for combining probabilities are discussed in the context of single-case studies pointing out two potentially useful methods one based on a weighted average and the other on the binomial test.
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The proposed transdisciplinary field of ‘complexics’ would bring together allcontemporary efforts in any specific disciplines or by any researchersspecifically devoted to constructing tools, procedures, models and conceptsintended for transversal application that are aimed at understanding andexplaining the most interwoven and dynamic phenomena of reality. Our aimneeds to be, as Morin says, not “to reduce complexity to simplicity, [but] totranslate complexity into theory”.New tools for the conception, apprehension and treatment of the data ofexperience will need to be devised to complement existing ones and toenable us to make headway toward practices that better fit complexictheories. New mathematical and computational contributions have alreadycontinued to grow in number, thanks primarily to scholars in statisticalphysics and computer science, who are now taking an interest in social andeconomic phenomena.Certainly, these methodological innovations put into question and againmake us take note of the excessive separation between the training receivedby researchers in the ‘sciences’ and in the ‘arts’. Closer collaborationbetween these two subsets would, in all likelihood, be much moreenergising and creative than their current mutual distance. Humancomplexics must be seen as multi-methodological, insofar as necessarycombining quantitative-computation methodologies and more qualitativemethodologies aimed at understanding the mental and emotional world ofpeople.In the final analysis, however, models always have a narrative runningbehind them that reflects the attempts of a human being to understand theworld, and models are always interpreted on that basis.
Resumo:
The proposed transdisciplinary field of ‘complexics’ would bring together allcontemporary efforts in any specific disciplines or by any researchersspecifically devoted to constructing tools, procedures, models and conceptsintended for transversal application that are aimed at understanding andexplaining the most interwoven and dynamic phenomena of reality. Our aimneeds to be, as Morin says, not “to reduce complexity to simplicity, [but] totranslate complexity into theory”.New tools for the conception, apprehension and treatment of the data ofexperience will need to be devised to complement existing ones and toenable us to make headway toward practices that better fit complexictheories. New mathematical and computational contributions have alreadycontinued to grow in number, thanks primarily to scholars in statisticalphysics and computer science, who are now taking an interest in social andeconomic phenomena.Certainly, these methodological innovations put into question and againmake us take note of the excessive separation between the training receivedby researchers in the ‘sciences’ and in the ‘arts’. Closer collaborationbetween these two subsets would, in all likelihood, be much moreenergising and creative than their current mutual distance. Humancomplexics must be seen as multi-methodological, insofar as necessarycombining quantitative-computation methodologies and more qualitativemethodologies aimed at understanding the mental and emotional world ofpeople.In the final analysis, however, models always have a narrative runningbehind them that reflects the attempts of a human being to understand theworld, and models are always interpreted on that basis.
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Mobile technology plays an increasing role in interpersonal communication,representing a useful resource for different age cohorts. While the usage ofmobile communication by younger people has received a wide attention fromcommunication scholars, its usage by older people is less explored. Thegoal of our research project is to analyse the usage of mobile phones by theelderly in Italy. We conducted 51 semi-structured interviews in Rome and in amid-range town located in Umbria, between October 2013 and February 2014.Our study explores older users¿ motivations and usage practices, their perceptions of mobile phones, theiradoption and domestication of mobile phones, their usage skills. More specifically,our analysis focuses on: - personal characteristics - personal networks (personalnetwork composition, self-perceived social life, communication channels) -adoption of mobile telephone - consumption patterns of mobile devices - usedmobile services - location and mobility of mobile telephone - current mobilecharacteristics - attitude and opinions towards mobile technology Our preliminaryresults show major differences in users¿ behaviours and perceptions, that canbe related to age cohorts (younger olds vs older olds); socio-cultural levels;vital trajectories (in terms of professional and familiar status); and gender.
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Nonlinear Noisy Leaky Integrate and Fire (NNLIF) models for neurons networks can be written as Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations on the probability density of neurons, the main parameters in the model being the connectivity of the network and the noise. We analyse several aspects of the NNLIF model: the number of steady states, a priori estimates, blow-up issues and convergence toward equilibrium in the linear case. In particular, for excitatory networks, blow-up always occurs for initial data concentrated close to the firing potential. These results show how critical is the balance between noise and excitatory/inhibitory interactions to the connectivity parameter.
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Our purpose in this article is to define a network structure which is based on two egos instead of the egocentered (one ego) or the complete network (n egos). We describe the characteristics and properties for this kind of network which we call “nosduocentered network”, comparing it with complete and egocentered networks. The key point for this kind of network is that relations exist between the two main egos and all alters, but relations among others are not observed. After that, we use new social network measures adapted to the nosduocentered network, some of which are based on measures for complete networks such as degree, betweenness, closeness centrality or density, while some others are tailormade for nosduocentered networks. We specify three regression models to predict research performance of PhD students based on these social network measures for different networks such as advice, collaboration, emotional support and trust. Data used are from Slovenian PhD students and their s
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In this paper, different recovery methods applied at different network layers and time scales are used in order to enhance the network reliability. Each layer deploys its own fault management methods. However, current recovery methods are applied to only a specific layer. New protection schemes, based on the proposed partial disjoint path algorithm, are defined in order to avoid protection duplications in a multi-layer scenario. The new protection schemes also encompass shared segment backup computation and shared risk link group identification. A complete set of experiments proves the efficiency of the proposed methods in relation with previous ones, in terms of resources used to protect the network, the failure recovery time and the request rejection ratio
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Firms select not only how many, but also which workers to hire. Yet, in standardsearch models of the labor market, all workers have the same probability of being hired.We argue that selective hiring crucially affects welfare analysis. Our model is isomorphicto a search model under random hiring but allows for selective hiring. With selectivehiring, the positive predictions of the model change very little, but the welfare costsof unemployment are much larger because unemployment risk is distributed unequallyacross workers. As a result, optimal unemployment insurance may be higher and welfareis lower if hiring is selective.
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We present an analysis of the M-O chemical bonding in the binary oxides MgO, CaO, SrO, BaO, and Al2O3 based on ab initio wave functions. The model used to represent the local environment of a metal cation in the bulk oxide is an MO6 cluster which also includes the effect of the lattice Madelung potential. The analysis of the wave functions for these clusters leads to the conclusion that all the alkaline-earth oxides must be regarded as highly ionic oxides; however, the ionic character of the oxides decreases as one goes from MgO, almost perfectly ionic, to BaO. In Al2O3 the ionic character is further reduced; however, even in this case, the departure from the ideal, fully ionic, model of Al3+ is not exceptionally large. These conclusions are based on three measures, a decomposition of the Mq+-Oq- interaction energy, the number of electrons associated to the oxygen ions as obtained from a projection operator technique, and the analysis of the cation core-level binding energies. The increasing covalent character along the series MgO, CaO, SrO, and BaO is discussed in view of the existing theoretical models and experimental data.
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The prediction of rockfall travel distance below a rock cliff is an indispensable activity in rockfall susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment. Although the size of the detached rock mass may differ considerably at each specific rock cliff, small rockfall (<100 m3) is the most frequent process. Empirical models may provide us with suitable information for predicting the travel distance of small rockfalls over an extensive area at a medium scale (1:100 000¿1:25 000). "Solà d'Andorra la Vella" is a rocky slope located close to the town of Andorra la Vella, where the government has been documenting rockfalls since 1999. This documentation consists in mapping the release point and the individual fallen blocks immediately after the event. The documentation of historical rockfalls by morphological analysis, eye-witness accounts and historical images serve to increase available information. In total, data from twenty small rockfalls have been gathered which reveal an amount of a hundred individual fallen rock blocks. The data acquired has been used to check the reliability of the main empirical models widely adopted (reach and shadow angle models) and to analyse the influence of parameters which affecting the travel distance (rockfall size, height of fall along the rock cliff and volume of the individual fallen rock block). For predicting travel distances in maps with medium scales, a method has been proposed based on the "reach probability" concept. The accuracy of results has been tested from the line entailing the farthest fallen boulders which represents the maximum travel distance of past rockfalls. The paper concludes with a discussion of the application of both empirical models to other study areas.
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Background: Polyphenols may lower the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic diseases due to their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, as well as their beneficial effects on blood pressure, lipids and insulin resistance. However, no previous epidemiological studies have evaluated the relationship between the intake of total polyphenols intake and polyphenol subclasses with overall mortality. Our aim was to evaluate whether polyphenol intake is associated with all-cause mortality in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. Methods: We used data from the PREDIMED study, a 7,447-participant, parallel-group, randomized, multicenter, controlled five-year feeding trial aimed at assessing the effects of the Mediterranean Diet in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Polyphenol intake was calculated by matching food consumption data from repeated food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) with the Phenol-Explorer database on the polyphenol content of each reported food. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between polyphenol intake and mortality were estimated using time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Over an average of 4.8 years of follow-up, we observed 327 deaths. After multivariate adjustment, we found a 37% relative reduction in all-cause mortality comparing the highest versus the lowest quintiles of total polyphenol intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.63; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.12). Among the polyphenol subclasses, stilbenes and lignans were significantly associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR =0.48; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.91; P for trend = 0.04 and HR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.03, respectively), with no significant associations apparent in the rest (flavonoids or phenolic acids). Conclusions: Among high-risk subjects, those who reported a high polyphenol intake, especially of stilbenes and lignans, showed a reduced risk of overall mortality compared to those with lower intakes. These results may be useful to determine optimal polyphenol intake or specific food sources of polyphenols that may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality.
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An assortment of human behaviors is thought to be driven by rewards including reinforcement learning, novelty processing, learning, decision making, economic choice, incentive motivation, and addiction. In each case the ventral tegmental area/ventral striatum (nucleus accumbens) (VTAVS) system has been implicated as a key structure by functional imaging studies, mostly on the basis of standard, univariate analyses. Here we propose that standard functional magnetic resonance imaging analysis needs to be complemented by methods that take into account the differential connectivity of the VTAVS system in the different behavioral contexts in order to describe reward based processes more appropriately. We fi rst consider the wider network for reward processing as it emerged from animal experimentation. Subsequently, an example for a method to assess functional connectivity is given. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of such analyses by examples regarding reward valuation, reward expectation and the role of reward in addiction.