The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

Kleptoparasitism, disturbance and predation of yellow-legged gulls on Audouin's gulls in three colonies of the western Mediterranean

The impact of yellow-legged gulls on Audouin´s gulls was studied by means of observations from a blind, at the Ebro Delta, the Chafarinas Islands and the Columbretes Islands colonies, during different stages of Audouin´s Gulls breeding cycle. The rates of predation (upon eggs and chicks) and kleptoparasitism (aerial and on courtship and chick-feeding regurgitates) were recorded to evaluate this impact. Kleptoparasitism and predation rates recorded at the three colonies may be considered low when compared with similar studies dealing with other gull species. It seems that interactions did not represent a threat to the population dynamics of Audouin´s Gulls in any of the three colonies. The highest rates of aerial kleptoparasitism, courtship feeding and chick mortality were recorded at the Columbretes Islands, and the lowest at the Ebro Delta. The ratio of the number of yellow-legged gulls to the number of Audouin´s gulls seems to influence the rate of disturbances. Food availability was also likely to play an important role in the number of interactions, which increased when food was in shorter supply. The study at the Ebro Delta and Chafarinas Islands was restricted to some subcolonies and hence results may not be necessarily representative of the entire colonies. The existence of some yellow-legged gull individuals specialised as predators was recorded. Finally, we discuss the suitability of several conservation measures commonly applied in colonies where both species breed syntopically.

Migration Determinants at a Local Level

This paper is about determinants of migration at a local level. We use data from Catalan municipalities in order to understand what explains migration patterns trying to identify whether they are main explained by amenities or economic characteristics. We distinguish three typologies of migration in terms of distance travelled: short-distance, short-medium-distance and medium-distance and we hypothesize whether migration determinants vary across these groups. Our results show that, effectively, there are some noticeable differences, suggest that spatial issues must be taken into account and provide some insights for future research. Keywords: population dynamics, spatial econometrics. JEL codes: C21, R0, R23

Paisatge, poblament, cultura material i història de l'Ager Tarraconensis. Resultats i comparacions

Síntesi dels primers resultats del Projecte Ager Tarraconensis i de les aportacions al simposi, de les quals s’extreuen reflexions i coneixements nous sobre el tema de l’estudi entorn del conjunt de l’espai de la ciutat romana, del paisatge, tractat com un sistema. Les aportacions se centren en la varietat de les primeres estratègies de control romà del territori, de les tipologies i evolució dels establiments, dels aspectes econòmics i de la dinàmica del poblament. Tot plegat fa referència molt especialment al territori de Tarraco, per bé que es fan nombroses comparacions amb altres territoris de l’àrea catalana i saguntina i també d’altres províncies romanes. Tarraco es va perfilant com una ciutat amb un territorium molt productiu, no sols en agricultura, sinó també en indústries, producció tèxtil, explotacions de recursos minerals com les pedreres i el ferro, i amb un comerç molt actiu que la devia convertir en un port important de la Mediterrània occidental romana. La jerarquia dels hàbitats rurals també s’està demostrant més complexa gràcies al coneixement de noves aglomeracions. L’evolució posterior al període romà també ha entrat en discussió, especialment pel que fa a l’època islàmica, sobre la qual es discuteix si el camp va quedar poblat o despoblat, tema que resol en sentit positiu el diagrama pol·línic realitzat dins del marc del projecte.

The odd couple: contrasting phylogeographic patterns in two sympatric sibling species of woodlouse-­‐hunter spiders in the Canary Islands

Comparative phylogeography seeks for commonalities in the spatial demographic history of sympatric organisms to characterize the mechanisms that shaped such patterns. The unveiling of incongruent phylogeographic patterns in co-occurring species, on the other hand, may hint to overlooked differences in their life histories or microhabitat preferences. The woodlouse-hunter spiders of the genus Dysdera have undergone a major diversi cation on the Canary Islands. The species pair Dysdera alegranzaensis and Dysdera nesiotes are endemic to the island of Lanzarote and nearby islets, where they co-occur at most of their known localities. The two species stand in sharp contrast to other sympatric endemic Dysdera in showing no evidence of somatic (non-genitalic) differentiation. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial cox1 sequences from an exhaustive sample of D. alegranzaensis and D. nesiotes specimens, and additional mitochondrial (16S, L1, nad1) and nuclear genes (28S, H3) were analysed to reveal their phylogeographic patterns and clarify their phylogenetic relationships. Relaxed molecular clock models using ve calibration points were further used to estimate divergence times between species and populations. Striking differences in phylogeography and population structure between the two species were observed. Dysdera nesiotes displayed a metapopulation-like structure, while D. alegranzaensis was characterized by a weaker geographical structure but greater genetic divergences among its main haplotype lineages, suggesting more complex population dynamics. Our study con rms that co-distributed sibling species may exhibit contrasting phylogeographic patterns in the absence of somatic differentiation. Further ecological studies, however, will be necessary to clarify whether the contrasting phylogeographies may hint at an overlooked niche partitioning between the two species. In addition, further comparisons with available phylogeographic data of other eastern Canarian Dysdera endemics con rm the key role of lava ows in structuring local populations in oceanic islands and identify localities that acted as refugia during volcanic eruptions

Plagas de los espacios verdes urbanos: bases para su control integrado

En España, las plagas de los espacios verdes urbanos suponen cada año un notable esfuerzo de control y la aplicación de plaguicidas es la estrategia de control empleada casi exclusivamente, con los subsiguientes riesgos que conlleva para las personas, animales y el medio ambiente. El control integrado es una alternativa pero requiere, para poder ser aplicada, un conocimiento profundo de las especies-plaga implicadas, de su biología, dinámica de poblaciones, daños, metodologías de muestreo y posibles sistemas de control. Esta información es difícil de encontrar en España debido a que existen pocos trabajos publicados sobre plagas de zonas verdes urbanas llevados a cabo de una forma sistematizada y a medio o largo plazo. En el presente artículo se analizan los condicionantes del control integrado de plagas en espacios verdes urbanos y se presenta un ejemplo, a partir de los estudios llevados a cabo en la ciudad de Lleida durante el período 2001-2003, de cómo la información básica necesaria para la implementación de posibles programas de control integrado puede ser obtenida.

Fenología, dinámica poblacional y daños de Eucallipterus tiliae Linnaeus (Horn., Aphididae) en tilos ornamentales de la ciudad de Lleida

La fenología y la dinámica poblacional del pulgón del tilo Eucallipterus tiliae Linnaeus han sido estudiadas en parques y jardines de la ciudad de Lleida durante el periodo 2002-2003 en árboles no tratados y en árboles sometidos a tratamiento químico convencional. Los primeros individuos aparecen a comienzos de primavera (abril) y las densidades de población crecen exponencialmente hasta alcanzarse un máximo a finales de mayo. Inmediatamente después del máximo poblacional se produce un descenso brusco de la población hasta la práctica desaparición de los pulgones del árbol. En otoño se detectan machos y hembras ovíparas que hacen la puesta. Esta especie pasa el invierno en forma de huevo. Durante el periodo de mayor abundancia, los pulgones produjeron gran cantidad de melaza causando daños estéticos a los árboles y molestias a los ciudadanos. Estos efectos negativos del pulgón se produjeron a pesar de la estrategia de control utilizada: la aplicación sistemática de insecticidas. El análisis de esta estrategia mostró un número excesivo de tratamientos y una falta de sincronización con la dinámica del pulgón, lo que pone de manifiesto que la estrategia de control de E. tiliae en Lleida puede ser mejorada. Se registró la presencia de diversos enemigos naturales asociados a E. tiliae, principalmente coccinélidos y parasitoides (Hym., Braconidae, Aphidiinae). Sin embargo, no parece que la abundancia de éstos fuera la suficiente para mantener las poblaciones de pulgones por debajo de los niveles considerados molestos.

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background: The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings: We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Two different epidemiological scenarios of border disease in the populations of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra p. pyrenaica) after the first disease outbreaks

Since 2001 several outbreaks of a new disease associated with Border disease virus (BDV) infection have caused important declines in Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica) populations in the Pyrenees. The goal of this study was to analyze the post-outbreak BDV epidemiology in the first two areas affected by disease with the aim to establish if the infection has become endemic. We also investigated if BDV infected wild and domestic ruminants sharing habitat with chamois. Unexpectedly, we found different epidemiological scenarios in each population. Since the disease outbreaks, some chamois populations recuperated quickly, while others did not recover as expected. In chamois from the first areas, prevalence was high (73.47%) and constant throughout the whole study period and did not differ between chamois born before and after the BDV outbreak; in all, BDV was detected by RT-PCR in six chamois. In the other areas, prevalence was lower (52.79%) and decreased during the study period; as well, prevalence was significantly lower in chamois born after the disease outbreak. No BDV were detected in this population. A comparative virus neutralisation test performed with four BDV strains and one Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) strain showed that all the chamois had BDV-specific antibodies. Pestivirus antibodies were detected in all the rest of analyzed species, with low prevalence values in wild ruminants and moderate values in domestic ruminants. No viruses were detected in these species. These results confirm the hypothesis that outbreaks of BDV infection only affect the Pyrenean chamois, although other wild ruminants can occasionally be infected. In conclusion, two different scenarios have appeared since the first border disease outbreaks in Pyrenean chamois: on the one hand frequent BDV circulation with possible negative impact on population dynamics in some areas and on the other, lack of virus circulation and quick recovery of the chamois population.

The odd couple: contrasting phylogeographic patterns in two sympatric sibling species of woodlouse-­‐hunter spiders in the Canary Islands

Comparative phylogeography seeks for commonalities in the spatial demographic history of sympatric organisms to characterize the mechanisms that shaped such patterns. The unveiling of incongruent phylogeographic patterns in co-occurring species, on the other hand, may hint to overlooked differences in their life histories or microhabitat preferences. The woodlouse-hunter spiders of the genus Dysdera have undergone a major diversi cation on the Canary Islands. The species pair Dysdera alegranzaensis and Dysdera nesiotes are endemic to the island of Lanzarote and nearby islets, where they co-occur at most of their known localities. The two species stand in sharp contrast to other sympatric endemic Dysdera in showing no evidence of somatic (non-genitalic) differentiation. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial cox1 sequences from an exhaustive sample of D. alegranzaensis and D. nesiotes specimens, and additional mitochondrial (16S, L1, nad1) and nuclear genes (28S, H3) were analysed to reveal their phylogeographic patterns and clarify their phylogenetic relationships. Relaxed molecular clock models using ve calibration points were further used to estimate divergence times between species and populations. Striking differences in phylogeography and population structure between the two species were observed. Dysdera nesiotes displayed a metapopulation-like structure, while D. alegranzaensis was characterized by a weaker geographical structure but greater genetic divergences among its main haplotype lineages, suggesting more complex population dynamics. Our study con rms that co-distributed sibling species may exhibit contrasting phylogeographic patterns in the absence of somatic differentiation. Further ecological studies, however, will be necessary to clarify whether the contrasting phylogeographies may hint at an overlooked niche partitioning between the two species. In addition, further comparisons with available phylogeographic data of other eastern Canarian Dysdera endemics con rm the key role of lava ows in structuring local populations in oceanic islands and identify localities that acted as refugia during volcanic eruptions

Research Priorities for seabirds: Improving seabird conservation and management in the 21st century

Seabirds are facing a growing number of threats in both terrestrial and marine habitats, and many populations have experienced dramatic changes over past decades. Years of seabird research have improved our understanding of seabird populations and provided a broader understanding of marine ecological processes. In an effort to encourage future research and guide seabird conservation science, seabird researchers from 9 nations identified the 20 highest priority research questions and organized these into 6 general categories: (1) population dynamics, (2) spatial ecology, (3) tropho-dynamics, (4) fisheries interactions, (5) response to global change, and (6) management of anthropogenic impacts (focusing on invasive species, contaminants and protected areas). For each category, we provide an assessment of the current approaches, challenges and future directions. While this is not an exhaustive list of all research needed to address the myriad conservation challenges seabirds face, the results of this effort represent an important synthesis of current expert opinion across sub-disciplines within seabird ecology. As this synthesis highlights, research, in conjunction with direct management, education, and community engagement, can play an important role in facilitating the conservation and management of seabird populations and of the ocean ecosystems on which they and we depend.

Analysis of a Plant Complex Resistance Gene Locus Underlying Immune-Related Hybrid Incompatibility and Its Occurrence in Nature

Mechanisms underlying speciation in plants include detrimental (incompatible) genetic interactions between parental alleles that incur a fitness cost in hybrids. We reported on recessive hybrid incompatibility between an Arabidopsis thaliana strain from Poland, Landsberg erecta (Ler), and many Central Asian A. thaliana strains. The incompatible interaction is determined by a polymorphic cluster of Toll/interleukin-1 receptor-nucleotide binding-leucine rich repeat (TNL) RPP1 (Recognition of Peronospora parasitica1)-like genes in Ler and alleles of the receptor-like kinase Strubbelig Receptor Family 3 (SRF3) in Central Asian strains Kas-2 or Kond, causing temperature-dependent autoimmunity and loss of growth and reproductive fitness. Here, we genetically dissected the RPP1-like Ler locus to determine contributions of individual RPP1-like Ler (R1R8) genes to the incompatibility. In a neutral background, expression of most RPP1-like Ler genes, except R3, has no effect on growth or pathogen resistance. Incompatibility involves increased R3 expression and engineered R3 overexpression in a neutral background induces dwarfism and sterility. However, no individual RPP1-like Ler gene is sufficient for incompatibility between Ler and Kas-2 or Kond, suggesting that co-action of at least two RPP1-like members underlies this epistatic interaction. We find that the RPP1-like Ler haplotype is frequent and occurs with other Ler RPP1-like alleles in a local population in Gorzów Wielkopolski (Poland). Only Gorzów individuals carrying the RPP1-like Ler haplotype are incompatible with Kas-2 and Kond, whereas other RPP1-like alleles in the population are compatible. Therefore, the RPP1-like Ler haplotype has been maintained in genetically different individuals at a single site, allowing exploration of forces shaping the evolution of RPP1-like genes at local and regional population scales.