A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Preliminary results of the Social Impact Research Group of MEDEX: the request database (2000-2002) of two Meteorological Services

One of the aims of the MEDEX project is to improve the knowledge of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean. According to the guidelines of this project, a pilot study was carried out in two regions of Spain (the Balearic Islands and Catalonia) by the Social Impact Research group of MEDEX. The main goal is to suggest some general and suitable criteria about how to analyse requests received in Meteorological Services arising out of the damage caused by weather events. Thus, all the requests received between 2000 and 2002 at the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya as well as at the Division of AEMET in the Balearic Islands were analysed. Firstly, the proposed criteria in order to build the database are defined and discussed. Secondly, the temporal distribution of the requests for damage claims is analysed. On average, almost half of them were received during the first month after the event happened. During the first six months, the percentage increases by 90%. Thirdly, various factors are taken into account to determine the impact of specific events on society. It is remarkable that the greatest number of requests is for those episodes with simultaneous heavy rain and strong wind, and finally, those that are linked to high population density.

Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950-2009)

This paper presents a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). A database spanning 60 yr (1950-2009) has been developed on the basis of information collected from various sources such as weather reports, insurance companies, newspapers and damage surveys. This database has been subjected to a rigorous validation process, and the climatology describes its main features: timing, spatial pattern, and trends in the tornado and waterspout distribution. Results show the highest concentration of tornadoes from August to October, the highest density in the heavily populated coastal areas and a growing positive trend that is likely more closely linked to an increase in observation and perception rather than a real climatic trend.

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

Influencia de la orografía y de la inestabilidad convectiva en la distribución espacial de lluvias extremas en Cataluña

Se han estudiado metódicamente todos 1os episodios de inundaciones que han afectado a Cataluña en la última mitad de siglo, especialmente el de noviembre de 1982, insistiendo en la distribución espacial de la lluvia y su conexin con la orografa. Para ello, a partir de los radiosondeos de Palma de Mallorca se ha analizado la inestabilidad convectiva obteniéndose los ascensos mínimos necesarios para la inestabilización. Asimismo, se han trazado las lineas de corriente en la baja troposfera lo que ha permitido conocer la dirección del flujo dominante. Se incluye también alguna inforrnación de carácter hidrológico.

Towards a database on societal impact of Mediterranean floods in the framework of the HYMEX project

The NW Mediterranean region experiences every year heavy rainfall and flash floods that occasionally produce catastrophic damages. Less frequent are floods that affect large regions. Although a large number of databases devoted exclusively to floods or considering all kind of natural hazards do exist, usually they only record catastrophic flood events. This paper deals with the new flood database that is being developed within the framework of HYMEX project. Results are focused on four regions representative of the NW sector of Mediterranean Europe: Catalonia, Spain; the Balearic Islands, Spain; Calabria, Italy; and Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenées and PACA, France. The common available 30-yr period starts in 1981 and ends in 2010. The paper shows the database structure and criteria, the comparison with other flood databases, some statistics on spatial and temporal distribution, and an identification of the most important events. The paper also provides a table that includes the date and affected region of all the catastrophic events identified in the regions of study, in order to make this information available for all audiences.

Threading dislocation lines in two-sided flux-array decorations

Two-sided flux decoration experiments indicate that threading dislocation lines (TDLs), which cross the entire film, are sometimes trapped in metastable states. We calculate the elastic energy associated with the meanderings of a TDL. The TDL behaves as an anisotropic and dispersive string with thermal fluctuations largely along its Burgers vector. These fluctuations also modify the structure factor of the vortex solid. Both effects can, in principle, be used to estimate the elastic moduli of the material.

Elasticity and melting of vortex crystals in anisotropic superconductors: Beyond the continuum regime.

The elastic moduli of vortex crystals in anisotropic superconductors are frequently involved in the investigation of their phase diagram and transport properties. We provide a detailed analysis of the harmonic eigenvalues (normal modes) of the vortex lattice for general values of the magnetic field strength, going beyond the elastic continuum regime. The detailed behavior of these wave-vector-dependent eigenvalues within the Brillouin zone (BZ), is compared with several frequently used approximations that we also recalculate. Throughout the BZ, transverse modes are less costly than their longitudinal counterparts, and there is an angular dependence which becomes more marked close to the zone boundary. Based on these results, we propose an analytic correction to the nonlocal continuum formulas which fits quite well the numerical behavior of the eigenvalues in the London regime. We use this approximate expression to calculate thermal fluctuations and the full melting line (according to Lindeman's criterion) for various values of the anisotropy parameter.

Statistical dynamics of dislocation systems: The influence of dislocation-dislocation correlations.

During plastic deformation of crystalline materials, the collective dynamics of interacting dislocations gives rise to various patterning phenomena. A crucial and still open question is whether the long range dislocation-dislocation interactions which do not have an intrinsic range can lead to spatial patterns which may exhibit well-defined characteristic scales. It is demonstrated for a general model of two-dimensional dislocation systems that spontaneously emerging dislocation pair correlations introduce a length scale which is proportional to the mean dislocation spacing. General properties of the pair correlation functions are derived, and explicit calculations are performed for a simple special case, viz pair correlations in single-glide dislocation dynamics. It is shown that in this case the dislocation system exhibits a patterning instability leading to the formation of walls normal to the glide plane. The results are discussed in terms of their general implications for dislocation patterning.

Depinning transition of dislocation assemblies: Pileups and low-angle grain boundaries

We investigate the depinning transition occurring in dislocation assemblies. In particular, we consider the cases of regularly spaced pileups and low-angle grain boundaries interacting with a disordered stress landscape provided by solute atoms, or by other immobile dislocations present in nonactive slip systems. Using linear elasticity, we compute the stress originated by small deformations of these assemblies and the corresponding energy cost in two and three dimensions. Contrary to the case of isolated dislocation lines, which are usually approximated as elastic strings with an effective line tension, the deformations of a dislocation assembly cannot be described by local elastic interactions with a constant tension or stiffness. A nonlocal elastic kernel results as a consequence of long-range interactions between dislocations. In light of this result, we revise statistical depinning theories of dislocation assemblies and compare the theoretical results with numerical simulations and experimental data.

Grain boundaries in vortex matter

We explore the statistical properties of grain boundaries in the vortex polycrystalline phase of type-II superconductors. Treating grain boundaries as arrays of dislocations interacting through linear elasticity, we show that self-interaction of a deformed grain boundary is equivalent to a nonlocal long-range surface tension. This affects the pinning properties of grain boundaries, which are found to be less rough than isolated dislocations. The presence of grain boundaries has an important effect on the transport properties of type-II superconductors as we show by numerical simulations: our results indicate that the critical current is higher for a vortex polycrystal than for a regular vortex lattice. Finally, we discuss the possible role of grain boundaries in vortex lattice melting. Through a phenomenological theory we show that melting can be preceded by an intermediate polycrystalline phase.

Dislocation jamming and Andrade creep

We simulate the glide motion of an assembly of interacting dislocations under the action of an external shear stress and show that the associated plastic creep relaxation follows Andrades law. Our results indicate that Andrade creep in plastically deforming crystals involves the correlated motion of dislocation structures near a dynamic transition separating a flowing from a jammed phase. Simulations in the presence of dislocation multiplication and noise confirm the robustness of this finding and highlight the importance of metastable structure formation for the relaxation process.

Growth of a vortex polycrystal in type II superconductors

We discuss the formation of a vortex polycrystal in type II superconductors from the competition between pinning and elastic forces. We compute the elastic energy of a deformed grain boundary, which is strongly nonlocal, and obtain the depinning stress for weak and strong pinning. Our estimates for the grain size dependence on the magnetic field strength are in good agreement with previous experiments on NbMo. Finally, we discuss the effect of thermal noise on grain growth.