Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Bacterial membrane injuries induced by lactacin F and nisin

The combined action of nisin and lactacin F, two bacteriocins produced by lactic acid bacteria, is additive. In this report, the basis of this effect is examined. Channels formed by lactacin F were studied by experiments using planar lipid bilayers, and bactericidal effects were analyzed by flow cytometry. Lactacin F produced pores with a conductance of 1 ns in black lipid bilayers in 1 mM KClat 10 mV at 20°C. Pore formation was strongly dependent on voltage. Although lactacin F formed pores at very low potential (10 mV), the dependence was exponentialabov e 40 mV. The injuries induced by nisin and lactacin F in the membranes of Lactobacillus helveticus produced different flow cytometric profiles. Probably, when both bacteriocins are present, each acts separately; their cooperation may be due to an increase in the number of single membrane injuries

End point of Hawking radiation

The formation and semiclassical evaporation of two-dimensional black holes is studied in an exactly solvable model. Above a certain threshold energy flux, collapsing matter forms a singularity inside an apparent horizon. As the black hole evaporates the apparent horizon recedes and meets the singularity in a finite proper time. The singularity emerges naked, and future evolution of the geometry requires boundary conditions to be imposed there. There is a natural choice of boundary conditions which matches the evaporated black hole solution onto the linear dilaton vacuum. Below the threshold energy flux no horizon forms and boundary conditions can be imposed where infalling matter is reflected from a timelike boundary. All information is recovered at spatial infinity in this case.

Visual performance in preterm infants with brain injuries compared with low-risk preterm infants

Background: Neonatal brain injuries are the main cause of visual deficit produced by damage to posterior visual pathways.While there are several studies of visual function in low-risk preterm infants or older children with brain injuries, research in children of early age is lacking. Aim: To assess several aspects of visual function in preterm infants with brain injuries and to compare them with another group of low-risk preterm infants of the same age. Study design and subjects: Forty-eight preterm infants with brain injuries and 56 low-risk preterm infants. Outcome measures: The ML Leonhardt Battery of Optotypes was used to assess visual functions. This test was previously validated at a post-menstrual age of 40 weeks in newborns and at 30-plus weeks in preterm infants. Results: The group of preterminfants with brain lesions showed a delayed pattern of visual functions in alertness, fixation, visual attention and tracking behavior compared to infants in the healthy preterm group. The differences between both groups, in the visual behaviors analyzed were around 30%. These visual functions could be identified from the first weeks of life. Conclusion: Our results confirm the importance of using a straightforward screening test with preterminfants in order to assess altered visual function, especially in infants with brain injuries. The findings also highlight the need to provide visual stimulation very early on in life.

A Method for Sky-Condition Classification from Ground-Based Solar Radiation Measurements

Identification of clouds from satellite images is now a routine task. Observation of clouds from the ground, however, is still needed to acquire a complete description of cloud conditions. Among the standard meteorologicalvariables, solar radiation is the most affected by cloud cover. In this note, a method for using global and diffuse solar radiation data to classify sky conditions into several classes is suggested. A classical maximum-likelihood method is applied for clustering data. The method is applied to a series of four years of solar radiation data and human cloud observations at a site in Catalonia, Spain. With these data, the accuracy of the solar radiation method as compared with human observations is 45% when nine classes of sky conditions are to be distinguished, and it grows significantly to almost 60% when samples are classified in only five different classes. Most errors are explained by limitations in the database; therefore, further work is under way with a more suitable database

Analytical investigation of the atmospheric radiation limits in semigray atmospheres in radiative equilibrium

We model the wavelength-dependent absorption of atmospheric gases by assuming constant mass absorption coefficients in finite-width spectral bands. Such a semigray atmosphere is analytically solved by a discrete ordinate method. The general solution is analyzed for a water vapor saturated atmosphere that also contains a carbon dioxide-like absorbing gas in the infrared. A multiple stable equilibrium with a relative upper limit in the outgoing long-wave radiation is found. Differing from previous radiative–convective models, we find that the amount of carbon dioxide strongly modifies the value of this relative upper limit. This result is also obtained in a gray (i.e., equal absorption of radiation at all infrared wavelengths) water vapor saturated atmosphere. The destabilizing effect of carbon dioxide implies that massive carbon dioxide atmospheres are more likely to reach a runaway greenhouse state than thin carbon dioxide ones